Survivor 50 on Kalshi: Who Will Win? Plus some new data from S49 pops up! (audio pod)

Hello everybody and welcome back to your favorite show about shows, the antenna with a spit statistician Dane Martinez. Yes, I'm Nfino. Today's show, as the last three have been, Survivor, uh Dane, let's just start with a general from a scale of one to 10, 10 being the best. Yeah. Where do you think this season is so far and how do you feel about it the rest of the way? So, give me two different ratings. Like, how has it been so far? And then what's kind of like your feeling for how this is going to be going forward? Um, I think they're both above a five, but slightly higher on the second question. So, how has it been so far? I would give it a seven. You know, I think it's I think it's cool and I think the dynamics are cool. I think, you know, the fact that it is all veteran players who know what they're doing is is is a good thing because we'll get some hopefully highlevel gameplay. And I know that you and I are both fans of the the art of war of it all, but you know, some of this other special quote unquote season 50 stuff I'm not a huge fan of. Like how many times do I have to hear them call it Billy Eyish? Oh man, we even talked about that. And like the Zack Brown stuff that that that just takes away from the purity. I think we're both purists. So that a shot in the dark, right? Yeah. Well, that's been there for a few seasons, I would say. But yes, as a purist, I think those things, but then moving forward, I think it's going to get better because I think it will only get more cutthroat. I think some more of the like fan voting things will be involving loopholes and gameplay surprises because they're going to have to throw these veterans off. And so I look forward to that and I think we're on the precipice of that quite frankly. So I'll go six and then eight and a half. Tell you what, I wouldn't mind uh if that you have this in the rundown that the Warrior trio. Yeah, it could just all go, you know, like I don't like I don't I have no interest. I like Joe, you know. I think I like Joe. Coach, I think has just gone too too cheeseball play to the camera, you know, trying to invent like these Japanese proverbs. Yeah. The tide walker, the stone bell, the bound warrior. Yeah. And Col's just I don't know, man. Like it feels weird having Kobe be like I was so honored that he gave me a nickname. He should have been like, "This guy like, okay, I played along for a minute, but this is insane." Yeah, I I agree with you. I I I accidentally expected Kobe to do that. I expected Kobe's reaction to be like, "Okay, cool, bro." You know, but in fact, you're right. He was like, "Oh my god, I've been kned by coach." Because quite frankly, you know, Kobe has his own uh Survivor uh fame. You know, he doesn't need coach. He doesn't need coach. Not like some new guy from season 46. Right. Right. Exactly. No, I'm with you. Um, but yeah, I know I know you also do not love uh, you know, naming the Billy Eyish idol and having Zack Brown going spear fishing for a full second, man. Like I I fast for honestly like I know we didn't have the show last like in that show two weeks ago. I fast forwarded like the second I knew it was going on like Zack Brown's be playing guitar. Fast forward and it like I'm on YouTube TV so like I can you know as you fast forward it shows you like a little clip. So, like I I would know if like someone notices an idol under the table kind of thing and I'll stop and watch it, but like this is just filler. I got to skip like 20 minutes of that. And I skipped the reward challenges, too. But now that those are done, the reward challenges. Yeah. Why don't I don't care, [laughter] right? Dynamics in there, especially like when they decide who to take with them on the rewards, stuff like that. There's definitely some gameplay dynamics in that part. I'm talking about the actual get like the like, "Okay guys, let's go." And then they run through things and throw sandbags and they just go to the end. You don't think it matters to see like who defecates the mattress and can't do the puzzle or like an a-hole to the rest of the group? No, it's you know like s come Oh, sorry guys. That one was on me. You know, I got tired in the mud and so like you know like I you know right after it happens that apology at camp that happens every time, you know. That's right. And then oh you know Siri really messed up but you know she's my number one ally and so I'm not going to vote her out. You know like that's that's it man. That's paint by numbers. Yeah that's true. I guess the other thing now that we have like two weeks of stuff to discuss and I know remember after our first episode we saw some people on social media being like hey don't we know these outcomes and stuff like that but yeah you know in some of these prediction markets at the beginning you know it was just like who's going to win the season right and we you know we had our we had our card and unfortunately one of our guys is banged out already but it is what it is but now Nando I'm seeing week by week they're just putting up like who's going to get eliminated this week who's going to voted out this week and I mean like it's been two for two, right? Like two weeks ago, Mike White zooms to 99%. And in fact, it is Mike White. Then you know this most recent week, Charlie and Angelina zoom to 99% and bang, that's that's the thing. So like Charlie Charlie and Angelina on March 19th were 89% and 75% when that market opened up. Okay. 89% and 75%, dude. Right. And then the only kind of blip was Rizzo went up to he just shot up to 15% like the middle of that day, held at like five and then just dropped off again two days later. And it was just like Charlie and Angelina 94 92.3 93 97 98 98 and by the time March 23rd hit it was they were 95 and 93. So, do we have to like kind of take a step back and be like the smart play is instead of trying to be like, you know, someone's at 99% out of 20 options is really the more profitable way to look at this. Like, yes, there is insider trading. Yes, there is in the no. And the next time someone's over 80%, just ride that is that. So, this this market isn't up yet. This was a $267,000 market when it was all said and done. The who will be eliminated from season 50 episode 5, right? Who will be eliminated from season 50 episode 6 isn't up yet. And it should have been according to this. Like it was up on March 19th. You know, we're doing this on the 27th. So that's been more than a week. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe they're just like, you know, like this is just going to get us in more trouble than it's worth because that's operable. Yeah. I mean the I guess the time to do it would have been when Angelina was at 72.9%. That's what I'm saying, right? Because in in the real world, right, when there are 20 options, no one should even be above 15%. So if anyone's in the 60s and the 70s, there's already inklings of that, right? Yep. And then when there's movement to like further confirm that, I think it's almost like, you know, we've been saying, hey, let's just, you know, be contrarian here, but maybe the more profitable way is to kind of ride the wave. And by the way, Nando, I I hate to start shrilling, but everyone listening to us should just go to, you know, our seven oracles website, predictionmarkets.com. They should get the newsletter and they should check out prediction marketspicks.com, excuse me, predictionarketpicks domarketspicks.com because they should check out the tools. One of the tools we have is to give you an alert when there is big movement like this, right? So in this case of like oh snap Angelino goes from 67% to 88% you will get an alert so that you don't get left behind you know kind of this dramatic movement so you can in fact ride the wave if this is the way you want to play it. But once again predictionarketspicks.com because the seven oracles are trying to help you out. Hey uh speaking of that the one movement in the futures market has gone up significantly. She's almost doubled. She's gone from five. Who will win? She's gone from five to well now she's at nine. A minute ago she was at 10 and she went as high as 11. Aubrey's down to 87. Ser is up to say nine or 10. Everyone else is just one one now. So now there's only two options. I mean basically every everyone else is down to one. But she took out of she took it out of the pool and not out of Aubrey essentially. So that says to me that Aubrey and Seri are both in like the final three. The final. Yeah. Maybe the final two. Like you know, you never know, right? Until they That could be That could be one of the things the fans vote on. Is it a final three? Is it a final two? We're starting to get, you know, and and and in the kind of preview for next week, right? We saw a couple of things that I think are interesting. one that there looks like there's going to be a merge at 17 players which would definitely be kind of messing it all up and starting to let these personalities work. But we know that there's other weird stuff that's on the horizon like different from the normal structure. So maybe that's it. Maybe it's a final two and not a final three. You know who I'm starting? So I know like I know we talked about this and like hey just to recap for everyone who's like we are we are on Charlie Tiffany Emily. We got a no on Aubrey. Uh, so Charlie's gone. We can talk about that in a minute. Yeah. But we did we did express some love for Genevieve early on. Like we both liked her and like, you know, someone who's, you know, I appreciate edits. Um, there this Genevieve Aubrey thing. Yeah. Seems kind of like a forced edit. And especially now they're going to merge like, you know, they're no longer have to hang out with each other. Uh, you know, in the in the same small camp. Yeah. I like I wonder if Genevie's the move. I wonder if like just setting her up versus Aubrey is either, you know, just to have a thing going on right now, you know, because there's like that the Billy Isish idol that's going to come back to Genevieve maybe at some point. Um, but I I I just wonder if that's kind of like planting seeds for Genevieve to make it to the end. And again, like we talk about this all the time, we're not taking this one cent, I need her to get to 100. We're taking this one cent and being like if she gets to 30 and makes the final three and it's like her against Aubrey, maybe that's something. Maybe it it could be. I I see it differently, you know? I see it as almost as the inverse Nando because if you buy in at all to this like Aubrey at 85 to 90% and has been the entire time, that means she clearly goes far, right? So the way I then spin that is whoever is trying to go up against her loses the war. You know what I mean? Right. Right. Right. And the way I look at it, that's part of the reason why, for example, the opposite. I like Tiff because Tiff has certainly aligned herself with Aubrey, right? And so if the markets and the insider trading of it all is showing that Aubrey goes far, then that also likely means her number one and her alliance goes far. So, I actually think it's a better bet. Like I'd be willing to say right now that I think Tiff goes further than Genevieve, you know, and in the same way when we have uh if you say Serei is starting to move up. One thing we saw in that last episode, right, was at least at Cila, it was kind of um Rizzo D and Si, right? Like Si told Rizzo about the vote, Rizzo told Si about the idol, right? So, it makes me think that that's going to be an alliance. And if Ser is moving up, it kind of like raises all boats. It makes me wonder if Rizzo goes further in the game, you know, because now at least on it's that and then on the other side on the bottom would be Jonathan Endeavors, but it looks like they're merging. But that's the way I look at it. If if if these guys or gals are huge percentages, it basically means they go far. I would rather take a piece of their alliance as the kind of cash out play thinking they go far as opposed to the people who are trying to take them down because they're going to ultimately lose the battle. Yeah. Yeah. I don't like devs anymore. I guess I never like to begin with and I think I've been very open about that, but I I don't know, man. Do you think that them planting that idol at uh tribal council is like going to amount to anything? Anybody's going to look at it or find it or think it's something? It's like they're dropping every story line, right? Like they dropped that one, they dropped even like the fan stuff. They haven't mentioned that, you know, as heavy-handed in like the last couple episodes. Like it it just seems like disorganized. Like, hey, the fans voted on this. It should I'm a, you know, big brother OG kind of guy. And like the big brother when they had the fan votes, like it was like it was very, you know, 40 minutes. Okay, here's what the fans said this time and here's what the fans are making the fan guy do and here's what the fans said and Survivor's kind of like, oh, by the way, you know, the fans voted that uh the sand should be pink instead of blue here. Uh, on to the next thing. I I don't, man. I hate fans. I hate fans. Dropping it off. Yeah, they're just dropping it whenever. And but that's what I'm saying. You know, when you ask me to like kind of score so far and the future, I think there's going to be more of this fan stuff. Maybe that's part of why they have to merge, right? Uh, so early because then they could start to leverage some of this fan voting stuff a little bit more. Yeah, I guess. But I mean, I don't know. Here's some good news for you, Dane. Uh, as we were talking, I was looking up I was just triple checking that episode 6, uh, markets haven't been put up yet. Yeah. So, last season, season 49, it looks like up to episode six, they had that, you know, the orange line all the way across the top, right, where somebody knew something. Yeah. If you look at episode seven and episode 8, they don't, right? So, like episode seven was kind of all over the place. There was a there was a favorite uh it was actually Jawan Pitts came out on top. Okay. You know, for like October 31st all the way to like November 4th and then Nate Moore jumped uh and then Jawan jumped again and Nate jumped again and then Nate had a huge jump up to 98, you know, 8.6. So that didn't like you know all of them had that top line like all the way across. By the time they got to episode seven it it got shaken up a little bit. And then if you go to episode, you know, I'm just putting in Survivor episode whatever. By the time you go to Survivor episode 8, uh, you know, Sophie was like 99% when it opened for two days, dropped, MC took over, Sophie jumped to the lead again, then MC jumped again. And so, like, there might be hope here. Maybe that has to do with like the merge and the jury and how like the public or insiders can know early on, but then these people at Ponderosa or in the jury or after the merge are like sequestered away in a little bit of a better way once we get deeper into the game. Yeah, same dude. Same thing. Sophie was up top when the episode 9 came out. Alex was right behind her. Savannah was all the way at the bottom. Uh, Alex jumped on what, you know, November 18th and just skyh high and then was that was it. You know what I mean? Like Sophie dropped. So the graphs look totally different after episode six. At least if you go on that's interesting. Season 49. Again, there's $31,000 worth of volume where this last one last week was 257. Sure. You know, natural growth, whatever. But maybe there's some hope, Dane. You know, maybe we should keep an eye on it. So, so I guess here's my question then. [clears throat] Like, so when this market comes out for next week, are you going to continue to fade it or that's Yeah. Right. That's so that so it went all the way up to six, right? And then seven it started out hot and then dropped down. I wonder if maybe it's like like the blind leading the blind, but like people get into this for six weeks and like, okay, whoever's like opening at 90%, that's the one we're going to jump on because obviously someone knows something and then you just don't like without warning like, "Oh no, the one who was who started at 12 was actually the one who got kicked off." Yeah. I mean that's and that's the thing and we've been doing it the like let's not believe it, right? It's the same kind of thing like in essence if you're betting something at 90%. Right? You're you're you're it's like in in sports betting if you're you just keep on betting minus five minus 600 favorites right and like listen those usually come in but the one time it doesn't you completely erase all of the profits from doing it right so like it's a good strategy until that one time when it screws you. So Dane, is the move put a little bit of money on no if someone jumps out at 99 this week? I guess. I mean, you know, five bucks, five bucks on No, they've been right every time. They've been right every time. But they were but they were last season two until episode seven. Yeah. I guess, you know, the the the the true kind of like sharp better in me just hates believing the 90% favorite. wants to find the 6% that's actually right or that has some movement. So like it's just counter to my DNA. So no, I don't want to do it. I want to fade it. Yeah. I call you I mean like you I associate with the no like since I've known you since we started talking about this since the Super Bowl. Dane has been and not like you're negative but like the edge is no. Like you know getting off the the the rabidness of crowds and like I mean but it's burned beyond everything from uh you know Mike White to Lady Gaga at the Super Bowl. So, yeah, but you're taking long shot nose. So, like you hit one or two of those and like you don't get burned anymore. You know what I mean? Like you, oh, look at that. I got it hit and now I'm, you know, that's the like what I'm saying at the 90% you got to get it right all over 90% of the time for it to be profitable. The way we're talking about it, you only got to hit it once out of every 10 times and you're and you're in the black. And like you know it's it's I think it goes back to Nando like is this for entertainment to have like some investment in the shows to live and die with it or are you trying to actually make money right and that's the thing that's why we're trying to talk about it through both lenses here on the antenna but you know I think you have to look yourself in the mirror and decide what are you trying to do here I will put like like and this is just me as I guess an editor you know what I like to read and just a consumer I guess what I like to read and this goes way back to the DFS days. I I take that back. DFS when they had the millionaire makers. Yeah, I'm going somewhere with this. Like that was kind of exciting because they were like average Joe's for a little while, you know, like there were just some people who I put in a lineup and I you know I was right because you know this guy scored a touchdown at the end of the last game. Um those are cute and fun and then when the pros started to figure it out, it stopped being cute and fun. Um and same thing like I stopped caring about like this guy won $2.1 million on underdog. I'm like I don't care. Like you know I know he has he's game the system. I don't, you know, good for him. It's kind of like selling oil at 7:30 a.m. [laughter] Yeah, this dude's doing his job. And so like the betting when the betting stuff started going like this and you know these tweets like, "Oh, one better at Bet MGM hit this 10 team parlor." And I'm like, "I don't care." And they're starting to do it with the prediction markets like, you know, this guy made $300,000 by scraping data and following these big accounts. And I'm like, man, I don't care. Like I like I like just being right. I like, you know, putting $10, right? Well, on Aussie I put 20 bucks on, you know, at one cent and just just for me, like I don't care about reading about the person who, you know, figured out the data and this and that. So, yeah. So, so, so here, let's be right. Let's be right. We have not talked about Vatu yet in this. Okay. And Emily was gone. Emily thought she was in the middle. She was gone. And so, there's four left in that tribe. And here's what I'm saying here. Wait, wait, Angelina's gone. You mean Emilyy's still there? Sorry. Sorry, Angelina's gone. Right. Yeah. So, you know, it was Build as Stephan Azie were kind of together and then build with Christian and Emily kind of playing together. But here's the thing. Emily can't keep her mouth shut. And we've said this before. Emily can't keep her mouth damn shut. Will talk to everybody and is clearly fanboying Azie. Clearly wants to be down with Azie. Right. So to me, what is obvious in the span of like let's just be right is that Emily is going to get down with Stephanie and Azie and Christian is so I believe that if there's opportunities for us to get, you know, to fade Christian, I think that's going to be the right play because also there's no other like in a merge, he's going to kind of be left out in the cold because all these alliances are forming in these tribes premerge whether it's the the warrior your spirit or the the Rizzo with D and S and maybe Camila. Yeah. You know, Christian's going to kind of be out there left in the cold because to me Emily is clearly uh you know favors Azie than continuing to work with Christian. And she can't keep her mouth shut. She can't. It's crazy. Like every time like every single time someone tells her something, she just tells them at the campfire in front of three other people. You know what I mean? Like Christian literally behind Aussie being like, "Yo, y no." Like making mad faces at her and gesturing, which I thought was hysterical. The uh I don't know, man. Like I like I don't know how I feel. I think they're giving Christian a villain cut. I'm starting to feel like I don't like him anymore, you know? Like he used to be lovable and fun and you want to root for him and now I'm just kind of like just I don't like, you know, every time he talks I'm like I don't like him. He's getting cocky. Yeah. Um Emily I still kind of like but she's falling into like almost how you're explaining it. She's not like masterminding. She's just kind of thinking out loud and making the right decisions. But to me, she's just kind of blah. I still love Azie. He's a beast, you know. I got money on him. You know, rooting for him. I had no problem with Angelina. I liked Angelina. So, like I don't know. I don't know where I like this merge is going to mix things up a bit. I think it really is. I think the biggest thing for me is like, you know, so we lost our Charlie play. Yeah. Goodbye, Charlie. If I had to double down on something, it would really be Tiff because Tiff is clearly linked with Aubrey. And that is going to stay. They're going to stay, I think, together. And Aubrey is going to take Tiff with her deep into the game, right? So, will Tiff make the final two or three? No. But if Tiff is at 1%, my my my biggest, strongest feeling, hottest take is if you get TIFF at 1% right now, there will be a time that you are able to cash out with Tiff. Yeah. Yeah, I think you're right. I hope I mean for our sake, I hope you're right, but that is the strategy, right? But also, if you believe in if you believe in Si, I mean like it does seem like she trusts Rizzo and Rizzo kind of like, you know, OD to RZ god. Yeah, the RZ god seems to like they they seem to be and they shared info. Yeah. Well, that's what I'm saying. Like they shared like very, you know, deep info. Like she's got an extra vote and it just seems like Rizzo will cut someone's throat, man. Like he's Oh, yeah. I don't know if I could I could see him backstabbing Siri. I could too. Like once they get to the merge, it could be like, you know, because everyone feels the same way about Si, right? like that she's this mama bear that they know everyone loves her that she's like the most famous best player that never win the game blah blah blah right don't forget Azy's like with her too he gave her the vote that she told Rizzo that she got and like people could get in Rizzo's ear and he could ultimately and the strategy side want to cut her throat before she cuts his and that dude's got to be exhaust the way he was explaining it he's like I went you I did 36 days and then had five days off and then I'm back on Survivor like that'll wear you down man he's going to get he's going to get tired I wonder what they did in those five days to kind of like even the playing field for him a little bit. I don't think they did anything. I mean, like Savannah Savannah was in the same situation, right? I mean, she's been voted out, but like there can't be much. There's like, you know, cuz you're in Fiji for goodness sake. So, like those five days in between, one full day is a flight home and one full day is a flight back out there. I don't even know if he did that, right? Well, that's what I'm saying. So, then he just laid up at Ponderosa chilling, I guess. Yeah. and just rested and ate for five days, but your body's got to be like, you know, like when a day and chill and did some yoga. They have a burger and they have diarrhea for two days. You know what I mean? Like his body adjusting that. I don't know, man. That's interesting. Although, I guess he got out a little early. Maybe he's counting his playing days as the jury, you know, like and they No, no, he was deep in the game. He went deep, right? But he had to vote. So which mean he's on the jury. He he he went pretty far because uh the biggest thing with Rizzo like he was a strategic guy and he had an idol, right? And everyone always thought he was going to play it and he never played it and so he got down to like final four, final five for sure. All right. He's he's an interesting one for me and I can't also can't tell like just in TV terms if I like him or not. Right. But we haven't really talked about him much. Yeah. Because we knew because and here's why. because we were on Charlie, right? Yeah, true. We knew that they were kind of going heads up. I will say this though, you know, Rizzo, and we saw this in the last episode, you know, he's this unknown quantity to them because they haven't seen his season, right? But he's all hyping himself up to them. Like, yo, I played really well. I want to be one of the best ever. Like that. I I don't think that's the way to play it. I think he's talking too much. I think he's inflating himself too much. I mean, you know, like you're out there and you're hanging out with these people and you're just talking and telling stories and like, you know, Yeah. Yeah. Maybe, I don't know, maybe he thinks that's a good idea for some reason. I mean, clearly he does. Well, maybe you're playing up to some people, too, you know, like when someone's like, "Hey, you know that band, you know, Johnson Brothers?" And you're like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course." Wait, I think I that song, right? Like maybe he's just like he's with all these winners and these people have gone far. Like maybe he's kind of like Yeah, a little bit. Right. So, what do we think is going to happen? What do we think is going to happen in terms of like these fan things? Because the merge at 17 is crazy. They've building this is like one of the biggest stories and shockers or something ever next week. So, like you know what what's going to happen? Is Jeff Propes going to get involved? Is it going to we going to see some Exile Island? Are we going to see some weird battle? Like I think there's going to be something uh you know some some kind of big switch. Yeah, I guess. But I mean, like, what could it possibly be? Like maybe three eliminations, maybe a triple elimination to get them down to a decent number before maybe they do it before the merge, you know? Like you cut that, he says it, but the reaction is everybody. You know what I mean? But in reality, he said it in front of the number is weird to me that they're doing it at so many. So I think you're right. I think you're right. They that they gota like do something with multiple people like right off. Maybe that's why the market's not up yet because maybe they're getting rid of five and they I don't know. or like, you know, I know they had kind of an Exile Island early, right, with uh what was it like Q and Azie or whatever. I don't think we've ever seen like multiple people on Exile Island, right? Like maybe there's a merge, right? But it really plays out in some weird unbalanced tribe. Like maybe out of the 17, it's really like 13 of them are together on the main island and four are together on Exile Island. Yeah. you know, or like we've never seen something like that, you know, like unbalanced kind of numbers. Um, so I but I do think you're right that there's something some kind of group thing, whether it's group elimination, group group uh banishing, you know, something something to that effect. It has to be. And I guess you got to start doing this stuff earlier because you have so many people who are so good at playing, you know, it's kind of like this guy's amazing at chess. Like, all right, well, let's speed up his timer a little bit then. You got to know you got to change the structure to throw a curveball because like they know how to play this game and they all know each other you know like so it's like you know I think this I really think like the most intriguing thing to me going forward Dane is this Sere Azie Rizzo possible trio cuz she's going to have to connect Azie and Rizzo which shouldn't be hard right like it's shouldn't be shouldn't be I think that's interesting that you mean like postmerge well yeah I mean like so Aussiey's kind of floating around by himself. Like he's got Steph, but I think he just has Steph as a matter of convenience in a way. He's got Emily, too. He's got Emily, too. He kind of has Emily, but I think Emily's got Christian more than, you know, like you can't trust I like if if you're looking at Emily and Steph versus Siri and Rizzo. Like I would go with the Ser and Rizzo side, right? Sure. I agree. But again, with a merge at 17, you kind of need more than three. Yeah. Maybe they're all together as a six kind of thing, right? Yeah, that could be it. And I think so I like that. You know, it sounds like you're down on the uh the the the warrior the warrior code. I to me they're just um irrelevant because seriously like they just feel like three guys are going to get eliminated, you know, they feel like the postmerge eliminations because they're strong threats kind of thing. But yeah, so I'm I'm with you. The other the the the the kind of crew power player to me is Tiff and Aubrey. I'm really interested to see Tiffan because they're gonna clearly gain someone, right? Aubrey has an idol for goodness sakes. U and then when they put it all together, what the other wrinkle we're going to start to see is people are going to be like, I'm the one who gave you your idol. Yeah. Right. Right. You know, I'm the one who did the Billy Eyish thing. And that's going to create like, [clears throat] oh, so does that mean you want to work with me or does that mean you want to blindside me so it boomerangs back to you so I get it back? Exactly. That's what I think is going to be kind of one of these big storylines once they merge. It's going to be like, "Oh, you gave me the idol." And people are going to be like, "Oh, so do I work with them or does that mean I need to really be careful of them because if I get banged out, you know, it's incentivized for them, right? I don't know. That's a good I mean, if we were really getting deep in this with that's that would be 20% of my strategy, I think. or even just like give it back to me tonight, you know, like they did with the shot in the dark. Right. Right. Right. Like I need this tonight to save myself. But to your point, right, like they have to create curveballs because these players know how to play the default structure of the game. Right. Right. Exactly. I mean, you know, looking for idols. I don't whatever. I don't want to, you know, we complain about this every week. Me, the new the new generation versus the old way of playing the game, but Right. you got to change because you know like like Russell Hans is a legend because when his season came the first time it was always a clue like you found a clue that said like look up to the east when you're walking down the beach and he was just like I know they're hidden somewhere I'm just going to go look for them without the clues and that changed everything because now everyone's looking in trees and trying to pull out little things and stuff like that so you have to change the nature of the challenge or whatever you know yeah ex you know like that dude like changed the entire game just like on a hunch like I something must be hidden here and just kept finding them at the best possible times. So I don't know I don't want to complain too much about it. Uh what should we do about Charlie? Just bid that spot a fonda to you and consider it sunk money or do you want to I think that should add a portfolio and we have we're down [laughter] you know like whatever we said we started with like $20 or whatever, right? We said we were going to go five55. Like we now only have $15 in play and that's so to me that's it, Nand though. Like if our goal is to at the end of the season be like we are up money on this, right? Like so we we I think we could do either way. I'd love to sell our Emily, but we can't. It's at 1%. It's still we lose like what? We're down a cent on each cell. Right. So, I think our choices are we can either just take the hit, right, and we're down or we decide to reup, but that means it's more of a sunk cost. If we want to back someone else, then that means, you know, instead of investing $20, we've now invested 25, right, for the grand scheme of things, but we have more knowledge now. Like this this Emily thing I don't like as much as I did three weeks ago. Okay. But I do like the TIFF thing. And so like for me, I like the new the no Auburn. For me, it's almost like let's not invest more and then just be like really mindful to hop on the cash out option on TIFF. All right. Or if you want to buy into someone, I'm with it. Like who would you want to buy into? No, I like your double down on Tiff idea. I do. I mean like s the surge the surice surge a bit has me thinking like if she just started at 10 and she was still 10 it would still be great value but her going from five to 10 and I don't know like if it's just people who are oh I learned about Koshi the other day and I love Survivor and I went and looked and you know Ser is such a great value because even those people must be looking at Aubrey and being like something's wrong here I'm staying away from this. Um, but the fact that she doubled is interesting to me. That's all. Yeah, it is. It is. Look, I don't have to do it for the show. I might do it on my own. I might just go get the from the Nando account, you know. Fair enough. But no, I think we have invested $20 and you know, our Charlie play is dead. We had a good run, Charlie. And then you messed it all up, dude. messed it all up, you know, for that weird late night encounter with Rizzo. Yep. Exactly. All right. Uh, good show. I feel good about where we're at. Yeah, we hit a lot of things. I think, you know, going there's nothing. The fun thing about this to a degree is like we can't crazy preview the next like I can I feel totally great about the futures, but crazy previewing the next show because of whatever twists and turns and going off a 30 second like it's just impossible. So right um you know we talk about what we know and the trends and who looks good and you know but I will say this if there are huge hops in the market and you want to be ahead of it go to predictionmarketspicks.com sign up for the newsletter check out the tools because if there's a big move you will get notified and then you can figure out yourself do you wanna believe it or do you wanna like Alden uh like Nando categorized me do you want to be the no on it nothing wrong with that it's a smart move Man, it's a smart move. Anyway, thank you all for joining us. Dane Martinez, a spitting statistician. I'm Nino. This has been the antenna. Check out pro uh prediction markets picks.com. The seven oracles powering it with all of our great content is the best. The tribe has spoken. We'll see you all later. Bye.