Our Survivor 50 Winner Predictions, Plus the New Survivor Mount Rushmore (audio-only podcast)

Hello everybody and welcome to your favorite show about shows, The Antenna with Dane Martinez. What's going on, man? I'm Nino. Uh, well Dane, you know, I remember. So, Survivor Ends this week upcoming. You just saw the second the penultimate episode or episodes. It was basically two episodes back in. It was yo when they I was watching it right when they were walking to tribal council the first time I looked I was like we're 30 minutes into the episode. Yeah. There's a lot of there's a lot of line left. Yeah. Exactly. Uh yeah. You know I like we you know what's we saw this coming. I think we kind of embraced the inevitable last week and now it's just kind of like show sucks now man. I don't even know who to root I'm rooting for Tiff, but like all of a sudden she's the biggest threat, right? Like so obviously she's gone next. I mean, you brought it up. You look at Ky right now. Aubrey's 92% to win. Yeah. It's crazy. And I mean, you know, we've been talking about, you know, we've been kind of straddling the entertainment value and us just liking the show and talking about it and debriefing with the kind of markets here and just on its face, there are now five people left. Yep. You know, so just the math ain't mathing, right? How do you have Aubrey at 93, Jonathan 3, Joe 3, Rizzle one, Tiff one? Like with five people left, there's no reason that it shouldn't be pretty much all 20%. Or like someone poking their head up a little bit. Like here's the biggest example. We started this after week one, right? And we we we built a little card and we had a couple of oneers that we liked. Our theory at that time was that if one of our 1enters made it to the jury, we said at first, right, that oh my god, their percentage will go up, there would be a cash out opportunity. One of those people we picked after the first episode was Tiff. We got Tiff at 1%. Now Tiff is in the final five. TIFF has three immunity wins. TIFF is still at 1%. So the work movement didn't happen. The cash out never really happened. There was that little spike with Siri, but it just never really moved. So, I think there's learnings that we could talk about later in our debrief or whatever about how to play these things when it seems slash is obvious that there is some kind of inside information. We knew I mean we knew there were spoilers and it's not like we like we ignored them for the purpose of this show because it was more fun or else we would have one episode we're like hey we know Aubrey wins. Uh thank you for joining us. Goodbye. Right. But like you were like we were kind of depending like you said on kind of like you know the fervor of people being more popular and people wanting and it worked you know for like three four weeks ago when Siri was looking good she popped up to 20%. You know like and I don't know where that came from because this is a giant it's a $25 million market now $25.8 million market on Kelshi and so you would think something else like that might happen and it didn't and obviously Siri you know gone now. Uh, every S's gone, Aussiey's gone, and Tiff is like, okay, so everyone wants to sit next to Rizzo. Let's just quick recap of last night and kind of what we learned is like everyone wants to sit next to Rizzo. So, they didn't even flush out his idol. So, now he like they've created this thing where he's like, I went through the whole game with an idol. Everyone knew I had it. I didn't have to play Survivor again. That's exactly what he did in Survi in season 49. That's exactly what he did in 49. He had it. He never played it all the way through. And that was kind of like his big thing like you know how Devon finds idols. It was like had the idol and you know kind of manipulated it so he didn't have to play it and he did it again. That's like his ace in the hole gameplay kind of thing. Absolutely. But I got to tell you like they are truly now the you can also see how the edits are changing on Auburn. Yeah. All of a sudden, the edits like the very cold open, right, is showing Aubrey making the move, like hearing from Azie, right? They're positioning that as the complete pivotal moment of the season, right? Like, my ember is glowing brighter now. Like, like, I'm gonna burn this whole thing down, you know, like I'm I'm gonna take over. I'm gonna do it. and she's getting the edit that that is in fact, you know, the big move and what wins her this game. Now, I guess like they've done it before and I can't specify where, but I just remember like having, you know, when whenever the episode's over, I give it an hour and then I go over to the Survivor Reddit. Yeah. And like everyone talks about the edit and educ and all that stuff there. They they've done some stuff where they have edited things in a way that would it's almost like they're they're pulling the reverse on the reverse, you know, like oh yeah, you think that's Yeah, you're wrong. It's Tiffany. So, I mean, they've done it before, but Jeff said something at the end of the episode um where he was like, "We got three more fan like all of a sudden the fans are three more fan things. Will there challenge?" So, the firemaking challenge, the final four, and then live or not live, live or not live. And this whole thing leads me to believe that maybe it's not live, you know. Oh, and that's how it is in fact the insider information, right? And that's how everybody knows because they know, right? We have been since day one being like, but it's a live finale. So, even if you know the final three, uh, there's this live finale. But you're right, but why would the fans vote that? Like, wouldn't the like isn't the obvious vote to have it be live? But that does make sense that I mean, it's still it's still the reveal is the same for you. I guess maybe it's fresher in their heads. I But I guess you're still voting. It's just the reveal. I don't know, man. Which in essence does create the like it's a known quantity and thus maybe people don't, you know, those those reunion shows suck, man. It's like Jeff pulling up a little kid who loves Survivor and be like, "Isn't this great? This is why Survivor is so great, everyone." And you know, like annoying interviews when all you want to do is hear like DTalk crap about someone. You know what I mean? Like they don't do that anymore. It's just like boring. And you know, maybe people just maybe that's their way of being like we don't care this year because there's all these like Survivor superstars, you know, like so people want to hear from Azie. People do want to hear from Siri. People do want to hear from these people that are icons of the game. Um, but I hear you. And they're gonna like have Rob Cesternino host that. You know what I mean? Like that would be an intriguing I mean like at this point why not have like a Paramount Plus show after the show where like Rob Cesternino could host two hours with all of them. Yeah. You know, keep the crowd there, right? Like Jeff can be part. You could talk to Jeff, you know, like Right. Right. Like a panel at a conference. Yeah. But as the way they do it now, it's pointless and boring and like milk toast, you like it's and then they're going to pre you know they're going to like show scenes from the next season and kind of announce that. Um yeah, you're right. I mean, but I say this to mean you you you are correct in the fact that maybe that is the vote is that it's not live and that's why it has been known the entire damn time. Yep. And here's the other thing. I mean, on the chance that it's not because like this is what this show is about, do do we throw a little more at Tiff 1 cent? Because the way this is going to play out is they're gonna want to take Riz. It's got to be T. So, there's five. They've been saying Tiff is a threat. Tiff is a threat, right? Which is a setup that tells me that like she's got to be next because there's no idol, right? Like she's got to win immunity and you know, like Jonathan will win immunity again. And so you're going to have Rizzo, Joe, Jonathan, and Aubrey in the final four. No one wants to sit next to Tiff, but like nothing in the show has led me to believe like everyone's going to vote for Tiff. We're missing this is the problem with the show, too. In a way, you know, like something like that pops up. You're like, what are you talking about, dude? Yeah. She just won a couple immunities and screwed one up, you know, like what? I got that, too. There was that whole segment where everyone was like afraid of Tiff. Yeah. At the final. Yeah. And they were like, "Oh, everyone loves Tiff. Tiff is going to get jury votes." And I was like, "Not really." I was like, you know, to me, she's had a average game. You know, like in our last episode, we thought about, oh, we want to sit next to Joe, right? We were like, you don't want to sit next to Deans, for example. Yeah. This kind of felt like in the middle of the pack right there. She did win immunity. That gives her three immunities. I can see now that Serei is gone, her being able to say that she was part of that mastermind of that alliance and whatever may have moved. And if you look at the now, if you look at the jury, right, Sere might vote for Tiff. Azie might vote for Tiff. Yeah. Um I don't know. Aussie might vote for Jonathan. I mean, Jonathan did pull off the let's get rid of Aussie move, so he claims. But when I look at the jury, I don't see any obvious tip [clears throat] connections like D, Chrissy, Coach, Christian, Steph. I mean, like, yeah. So, like, when you look at the jury and who you're going to vote for, like I know they were saying like they're not going to vote for Rizzo, who's annoyed everybody. Um, you know, about that. Seri loves Rizzo. Azie loves Rizzo. Rizzo just voted her out. He voted I read Dude, I I read some good stuff. I want to take back everything I said about Rizzo last week because he screwed up the game big time. Like Azie had already talked and done the damage, right? Yeah. Why would you vote him out to punish that? You've just lost your three person alliance that could have steamrololled through the game. Still vote out Aubrey and they still would they would have controlled the game, the three of them and Tiff. And Tiff got rid of Jonathan. You would have gotten rid of Joe and then, you know, have fire to figure out who the three are going to be, I guess. But I feel like you've been talking about Rizzo as like the voice of reason. And they said it at the beginning of the show, you know, they had a little, you know, the interview with Rizzo and he was like, I saw Azie as a sinking ship and I couldn't align myself with that. Um, but why? I guess that's fair. I mean, they that's it. That's like a knee-jerk reaction. Like, oh, this guy talked. I got to vote him out. Like, dude, he already did the damage. You know what I mean? Like, he's already done the damage. But I don't remember how that vote fell. He might have been voted out anyway. It's not like that was a close one. What? The Aussie. Aussie. Yeah. Right. So, I mean, even if Rizzo was Even if Rizzo stuck with him, he would have been on the wrong would have been No, Rizzo would have told him to play the idol. Oh, that's right. He could have told him to play the Yeah. And then it would have bounced back to Aubrey, right? Yeah. I guess I don't know. I still think Rizzo has been on the right side and ahead of the strategic moves. Like, listen, let's put it this way also. I've got Rizzo at 2%. Like Rizzo, of the five, the [clears throat] one thing we know for sure is that Rizzo's getting the four. Rizzo has the only idol left in this game. He possesses it and the next tribal is the last time he can use it. So, one thing we know for sure is that Rizzo makes the final four. Yep. Which is why it's like so crazy that homeboy is at 1%. Well, I guess cuz I mean they've painted him as a goat, not the goat, a goat. You know what I like he's what the goat used to mean before it became all caps. He's uh but I mean you think like he did he did turn on Aussie. You could somehow you know make a case for that. He did play but I don't think it matters the right way. He's we're not voting. We're not voting. You know what I mean? Like the jury is voting. They've seen a lot more than we have. And they say in a couple exit interviews, uh, I think Emily, someone was like, "Yo, Rizzo sucks at camp." And he love, he like lives for tribal council where he can make these big declarative statements and stuff like that. And like everybody apparently everybody hates him because I can see coach. Yeah, but it's gonna be Aubrey, right? Like we have to embrace it. It's inevitable. I know. We've been swimming against the whirlpool for two months. And I know like I mean we're very brave in that regard. I think that like it's all out there, right? But like you know you got to be contrarian if you you know for a little bit. At least if you're doing a show about this about markets, we're not going to tell go get Aubrey at 87 cents. You know if you have $100,000 and you're listening to our show, go right ahead and you'll turn a minimum like nothing profit, right? But go after these one cent people because maybe there's a shot. They've been wrong twice. There's some bad information out there every once in a while. could be a live final. But so I guess I don't know. I don't know. I I I want to frame the question to you. The next time we see this kind of market where on its face it looks like there is insider information. Right. Right. And someone, you know, let's say they're at 85%. Right. [clears throat] You know, we technically lost our money. Let's assume this all happens, right? We lost our $20. All our 1% votes are no Aubrey vote. That's all. We're in the red. Yep. We're in the red. If we on the other hand, were we're were saying, "Hey, Aubryy's at 85%, but we know this is going to happen. Let's lock in a small profit and inch it up the hill." We would technically be in the black. So like the next time this happens on whatever show we do next I know it's not fun but again our show is half fun loving the show talking about the show half the market place yep on that side I wonder if this if one of the lessons if one of the takeaways is when you see something like that on these prediction markets where the math isn't mathing and it looks obvious that there is insider information. Do you just tail the insider information? I've gotten burned with this on things like the Super Bowl halftime show. We've gotten burned with this on the weekly episodes, right? We've gotten burned with this in like politics markets where it is obvious that the only reason the percentages are what they are is because someone behind the scenes knows something, right? in that scenario, you just said, "No, we should be contrarian." And I agree with you for the quote unquote fun aspect of it. [laughter] Yeah. But for the quote unquote profit aspect of it, maybe one of the lessons learned is you just follow the money and you get your 1.1 times your money. But that's not really a profit, though. If we had 20 bucks, would you put all 20 on Aubrey when she was 85% to win? And then you get a couple fees on top of that. And what do we walk away with? 2130. You know, like, okay, what are we going to do with our dollar$130? Not if it's 20 bucks. All you need is a dollar in a dream, Dave. No, not if it's 20 bucks. But if we see this and it's like this works, do you take out the second mortgage and put 10K on it? That's the time. Yeah, but you've gotten burned by that twice in the week toe stuff. I know. When we we had It was Christian and who else was it? Siri, was it Siri week when she was way high and then went down? Yeah, I bet it when it was at like 80s something and those are the two out of the eight times when it got back. And that's the thing like even, you know, we come from fantasy sports betting, right? You can keep betting minus 800 favorites. You better be right all the time, right? You know, so that's my question. Is this is the lock truly a lock? That's what I don't know. And we've been going on this presupposition that there was a live finale, but at the same time, I guess someone would still be reading, you know, someone in production has to read the votes to, you know, inform the edit at the end, even if you bring the urn back to, you know, New York. Um, you know, someone has to know that in order to get the perfect story line, right? Uh, so I don't know, man. It's just, you know what it is? It's like, it's it is I keep bringing up Game of Thrones. It's like season seven of Game of Thrones. Like all the interesting people have been killed off and it's just kind of like this is like a very blah fome to get to the end for me. Yeah, I hear you. I'm rooting for Joe now. I like I I want Joe to win. I'm rooting for Rizzo. A because I have him at 1%. Yeah, that's fair. Um I mean Tiff Tiff notwithstanding assuming Tiff is the next one gone because she has to be because she's this quote unquote threat all of a sudden out of nowhere that no one's mentioned the entire season. I mean, to be honest, what I'm rooting for is for Aubrey to go home. I'm rooting for I'm rooting for it to all be wrong and it all crashes and burns, right? And then, wow, all of a sudden, we're all live. That would be great for the future of Khi in a way, especially like if we, you know, the next show, if we do Love Island next and someone comes out at 90% out of the gate, we're like, "All right, here we go." Right. But that would be we need it's this has nothing to do with Aubrey the person. This has to do with the wisdom of the crowd the folly of the crowds in a way like following false information pumping up a $25 million market to where Aubryy's not 93%. And so like you know it would be good if she didn't win for people the integrity of the game kind of the markets I mean yeah I think the integrity is out the window but just like a huge that that like upsets can still exist in a world where everyone just assumes that the spoilers are there and they just keep piling on and piling on and piling on, you know, to turn their $20 into $21.30 kind of thing, you know, like Yeah, that's what I'm saying. That's why for you get $20, put 20K on it. That's it. You know, yeah, if that is the move, like I I used to say this, remember how with the Super Bowl there are all these like weird prop bets like what color will Troy Aman's tie be, right? And it's like, well, his wardrobe specialist knows this answer, so empty out your 401k and bet that, you know, kind of thing. And it's almost like, have we stumbled upon where there's potential inside information? But it's interesting question for you. They all, you know, you you just said goat like what it used to be in terms of, you know, taking them to the end with you, but now there's goat, you know, greatest of all time. They all threw flowers at Sere like she was the best ever. She's the best ever. She has never won. They were talking about, "Oh, you're better than Tony. You're better than Boston Rob. You're better than Sandra. Sandra's won this game twice." You know what I mean? Like I I don't know if she's the quote unquote best ever. I think she might be the quote unquote like most loved, most revered kind of story character of Survivor history, but I don't know if she's the best. She's now played five times and has never won. What's impressive though is how revered she is. And they're not like week one like get her out. She's the best. You know what I mean? Like she makes it so far, which I guess like what would you consider the '9s Bills teams to be, right? I would say D, why don't you why don't we build who's your rush? I mean, I know people like doing this and maybe it's trit at this point, but what's your rush more of Survivor Goats? [snorts] Uh, Sandra. Yeah. Boston Rob. Yeah. All right. Cuz he was kind of like everyone knew and then he won anyway. like everyone knew his threat level and anyone anyway, right? [snorts] So, Sandra, Boston, Rob, Siri, Siri. Um, and then if I had to do one more, you know, I think that's open for debate. I think, you know, could be a guy like Azie, could be, it's got to be Russell. A Russell Hanss. It's got to be Russell, right? Could be a Tony, could be Um, you know, I I think that is more open. Like I can get to three and that would be Sandra, Boston, Rob, Siri, and then I think I my mind immediately goes to Azie, uh, Russ, Tony, or like do you give like all the way back at the beginning like, you know, Richard Hatch, Richard Hatch kind of love, you know, that that would be where my mind goes um, initially. What about you? I'm with you on I think Sandra has to be one. I don't think Boston Rob is. I think he was an entertaining character and I think he kind of figured some stuff out. I don't know. Maybe he is. Russell's my number two like by far. That guy changed the entire game. That guy invented looking for idols without clues, you know? Like that's And he should have won. And do you remember like was it wasn't Russell when they threw the challenge to get Russell out? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That means you're amazing. Um, is Ser in there? I think Tony might be in there, man. Tony invented spying. Yeah, Tony the spy hut. I mean, come on. Yeah. Right. Like I mean, like like I guess S may be in there. I think Si's been pumped up and I love her now, right? I brought it up. Like is she really the goat? She's been pumped up a lot because she does well on other shows too, you know? Like she went on big like she's just a good game player, right? And like the fact that she is so good at it and manages to stick around for so long. What? Someone who said it, the way she does it like with such grace. Like no one no one more gracefully. Yeah. No one more gracefully like controls a group like psychologically. So yeah. Uh maybe I I kind of like Sandra, Tony, Boston, and Rob Russell. I'm surprised you don't have your boy Aussie in there. Aussiey's never Aussiey's number one. He talks openly about how many times he's messed up and he has. Okay. Who's that one? Amanda. Everyone loves Amanda. I I don't know. I don't know. So, listen here. Let's react to this. I literally just put this into AI chat. GBT. All right. The consensus of the survivor of Mount Rushmore. Sandra. Yeah. Tony. Yeah, they say like he won twice. He changed how aggressive game played is viewed. The spy shacks, you know, man. That's Yeah, that's crazy. Spying on people. Boston Rob. All right. Because they say he's like the face of the franchise. Played five times before winning blah blah blah. Controlling alliances. Yeah, he had to play five times before he won. And then a name we have not spoken about yet, Elizabeth Hasselbeck. Parvidity. Oh yeah, I guess you're right. Yeah. Yeah. you know, uh, because of just like her social game, like the kind of women's alliance. How did we forget about her? Charm, flirtation kind of like she's the queen of the flirty flirting gameplay. Right. All right. Yeah, I got to redo it with her. Arvdy, Boston, Rob, and then they have um just outside the top four, and that's people we have mentioned. Seria is in that group. Richard Hat's in that group. Uh Russ Russell Hans in that group. Uh uh you just mentioned Rob Rob Cesternino is in that group. Um I mean it was good, but I think he's gotten fame from the podcast, right? Uh so that's that's kind of where where they go. And then they have a quote unquote new era Mount Rushmore that includes like D and even Charlie. But I think that we're we're on the name. Do you believe Parvity? Yeah, I forgot. I completely the flirtation gameplay. Sandra Tony Poverty Russell Hance. So, I'm with that except I believe I It's tough. I think I might have to switch out Boston Robin there. For who? Russell? [sighs] Yeah. or Tony or Poverty. Like, it's tough. I I think that's a five. All right. I mean, we just short. It's interesting because all the ones we talked about, those say those five, S's the only one who's on this season. Fair, but also she hasn't won. I'm just saying like where was everybody else? Well, you mentioned that like they over booked it, right? On purpose. Yeah. Yeah. But I mean like do you mess you mess with Tony in his life like that to be like, "Hey, you take off the next month, right? Maybe Poverty said no or something, you know? Who knows? Maybe they reached out to Boston Rob for Survivor Imagine. I can't imagine they didn't reach out to Boston Rob for this. I think he's I think he's I like him. I love watching. I love watching Deal or No Deal Island and all sorts of other stuff. Maybe he's just like, "I'm good, you know. Thanks. I'm good. I got my life now." Right. Right. H All right. He got his Yeah. Got his wife out of a show, you know. He's great. No, he's got you know, he's a millionaire for goodness sake. His wife is a millionaire, [laughter] right? Him and his wife won the show. You know, both. Well, I think D was who was talking about it? D about how much you actually take home after all that. Oh, with the taxes and whatnot. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. you know, you're I know someone who won the amazing race. Nice. And that's obviously a pair, right? Yeah. You know, so you split in a million right away. U but then with the taxes, it was something like 250, 300. Hey, you know, um Azie was talking about like Amazing Race is like an experience, you know, like everyone was a survivor experience, blah blah. In one of Aussiey's exit interviews, he was talking about how he's uh his next venture. I think it was an entertainment weekly. Maybe his next venture is uh some ecoourism thing in Mexico that gives you the Survivor experience with actual Survivor contestants like popping in and out. Oh, that's cool. Yeah. I can't believe no one's thought of that. Someone had to have thought of this before, right? Like a hotel where you get to go through the whole Survivor thing. You have to have the inn to like be able to get, you know, Tony to show up for a week to do an appearance kind of thing. Yeah. But I mean, like, do you need Tony to have the have the pull to do that? I think you could still get away with like the person who finished eighth on Survivor season 38, you know, someone who still like is a lowlevel has an agent and like Yeah. I this is an opportunity for Yeah. The ones who show up come out and join. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Jeff Johnson's, you know, Survivor 14's eighth place finisher and, you know, $2 drinks all night, you know, and watch the finale. I hear that. May Dane, maybe we should go watch the finale. I know. Like we were talking about you coming over here and us doing something together. Maybe we should see if there's a watch party somewhere. Let's go to Fiji. I was Fiji. I was going to say go to New York and see where the surviv Google survivor watch parties. Listen, we're gonna do something. It's probably next week and we're gonna try and bring it to you uh in true antenna fashion with Nando and myself. We're gonna figure it out. Yeah. Uh in the meantime, I don't know what to tell you to do with your markets. I might I might I might put $5 on tips. Take out a second mortgage and bet Aubrey at 92%. I'm not gonna do I But you know what? For me and like take the 401ks, you should not you should not be taking serious betting advice for me on this or serious markets advice for me on this, but like I I do it for the thrill. Like I know parlays are a sucker bet, but I like I like it like in a football Sunday, you know, I'll put $3 to win 702. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For $3. I do it every week. I bet the monster 10 leg parlay and in my mind I'm like if I hit it once every season it works. Yeah. I just don't I can't like you know a 10 team oh I put a 10 team parlay together and it was all favorites like good for you dude. Like what do you what's the thrill of that you know? So anyway my point is I'm gonna do one last shoot the moon $5. Uh, you know, I don't think Joe I think it has to be Tiff and somehow Tiff just wins immunity and wins fire and then I don't know, but she still doesn't have the Everyone's saying it and there's so much we don't see. So like I don't think they would have just made it up and be like, "Oh, well Tiff's a big threat, you know, like it's that's what they're saying. They've been living it, you know, more than us watching it, right?" So I don't know, man. I don't know. Well, we know they don't like Joe. They don't like Joe. Yeah, but you could respect Joe's game. I think I don't like Jonathan. Jonathan's game I don't think you can respect. Rizzo has played strategically and Serei could hype him up at the tri at the final tribal. It's what is it? Yeah, I guess. But would she? I mean, he turned his back on her. He turned his back on Azie. He blew up. If you take the point of view that Rizzo stupidly got Aussie out and blew up his own chances at steamrolling his way into the final, like even if Aussiey's a sinking ship, so what, dude? Tell him to play the idol. Stick with your three and then you're sitting next to a sinking ship at the finale. You know what I mean? Like who cares? I just I'm warming to RZ. I like I like I'm all about the riz go RZ god. I know. Riz rat. Yeah. Anyway, all right. Well, we'll see what happens next week. uh you know this wall I mean I think we know what happens. I think we just have to acknowledge it but there's still hope. I mean like you and I have been around long enough to know it's there's a sliver sliver sliver of a chance but there's a reason when someone is 93%. Yeah. You know yeah with five people that's that's not normal. That's that's like that's investigated 2% with 23 people left. Yeah. Right. So my hunch is that the voting is done there, the announcing is done there, you know, and then it just, you know, there was enough early Yeah, there was enough early on there that it just kind of steamrolled its way into a $25 million market where there's a 93% favorite. So yeah, wamp. Oh well. Anyway, uh well, second to last episode for Survivor. That's what we think. Thank you all for joining us. We hope we entertained you. We'll see you next week for a special show where Dan and I are going to be live together. Well, maybe not live, but like in person together for a tape show. Uh TBD on the location. But until then, my friends, we'll see you soon. The tribe has [music] spoken.