DWTS Double Elimination Odds: Don't Just Buy the Favorite | 7 Oracles

payment as well. That's why we at Seven Oracles really help you take your approach, move it over to these other verticals, these other industries, and use that same approach, use that same mindset, and get an edge here. We're helping people in these prediction markets. Gene? Yeah. And it it's it's about it's about leaning into what you know, right? It's about leaning into what you're interested in, what you're going to because you're going to watch this stuff anyway. And and speaking of stuff that you're going to watch anyway for my Dancing with the Stars, right, it was it was it was dedication night. Okay, we we had a we had a good conversation behind the scenes yesterday while everything was going on. Um and and it it's kind of one of those things where on dedication night they they usually don't kick anyone off. They usually don't eliminate anyone because it's kind of weird to eliminate someone who's dancing as a dedication. It's like happy golucky feelings, right? Yeah. It's like a it's a it's an emotional feeling. You want to compound that by kicking them off the So, no one got kicked off LA um last night. Spoiler alert if you don't know. Right. No one was kicked off last night. But here's the thing that they did because no one was kicked off last night. Everybody's scores are going to roll over to next week and then they're going to do a double elimination next week. Okay. So, remember when I talked about you don't have to win these things, you just have to not get voted off. This becomes very interesting because the people who are like being voted on to get voted off next week because the because the the the dominant dancers are dominating, right? last night. All Ambergwin um had a 40 I think it was a almost perfect a 29 or something like it it was ridiculous. Um um Amber Glenn um Jenna Dewan um Ezra French and then um um who was who was fourth? Um Harry Shum. Harry Shum was fourth. He got straight nines across and these people were killing their dances. They did so well. That's not where the fun is because you know they're not going to get kicked off. The fun is when you get down to the bottom and those people, right? Those those those ones, right? The Tatiana Ali, the C Tyler Cameron, the the the Julia Styles. It's not about them winning. It's about them not getting voted off next week when there's going to be too many people voted off, right? Um do do they have that the um market going to the to the market of of of getting people getting voted off because you want to look at where they're trading at and you want to be able to pick no on those people. They don't have it up yet. So then when they get when they get that market up because because trust me, it's coming. Um when they get that elimination market up go to episode seven. Is that is that happened already? None. Right. So you see the nun the nun was put in specifically because most times they do not kick anyone off. Look at that line graph man. If you knew that couldn't you have got if you if you go back a little bit where none go back a little bit further where none look at that spike in none man. If you knew that, could you have gotten in? As soon as it popped up, everyone put none. Like every That's why it spiked so fast because as soon as this popped up, everyone said like as soon as you heard the commercial being like it's dedication night. Could you have gotten in on none even? You definitely could have. And again, we were talking about it. It was still I believe last night it was traded at like 70 oh at 70% or something last night because they had they're they they have voted people off on a on on one of these nights before but they normally don't do it and so because they don't normally do it there was a very good chance that it wasn't going to happen last night. Um it was 75% last night it so so we were talking about putting 25% on no none because if they did decide to vote someone out you were going to get four to one on your money right so or three to one on your money. So like those are the ways you're looking at it. You don't always have to look at who's going to win these things. You want to look at who who's who's going to stay around the longest. And next week's um episode 8 I guess is going to be really interesting because we're getting to the point now where some of the favorites as far as like the fan favorites, right, are going to have to people are going to have to make the decision. Do I want to keep my fan favorite on or do I want to keep seeing these really excellent dancers? And I think this is the place where we're going to find out just how popular an Ezra French is and just how popular a Jenna Dewan is, just how popular a Harry Shum is. Like, can you can just because you can dance well, can your high can your high grade from the judges mix with your popularity be able to survive the overwhelming popularity of a Tatiana Ali? Yeah. or Julia Styles. And that will be the question. Let me ask you something about this, right? Because you know, you're you're you're you're plugged in on Dancing with the Stars and Alex, if you can go to like the whole season winner market again. And and you know, Jean, before this in the reality TV world, I was talking about Survivor. I was talking about Big Brother, right? One of the things I started to realize, and I don't know if you know this offhand, because you're talking about like the double elimination stuff and some of the wacky uh ripple, you know, monkey wrenches that might be thrown in. I worked backwards for Big Brother on like when the season finale was, right? And I was like, "Oh man, they've only got like four more episodes left, but there's far too many people still here. They're going to have to do a bunch of double eliminations. They're going to have to, you know, do that. Is there any way, you know, I don't know, for example, in Big Brother, you know, on the last episode, it's down to three and then they do the final down to two." Like, is it at the very end? Are they is the nation choosing or the judge choosing between two finalists, between three finalists, that sort of thing. And is there any idea that you can see, hey, wait, there maybe is going to be all right. So, November 24th seems like it's the the finale. So, to me, what is that? Five more episodes. That means, right? And then just straight off doing the math, if there's something like five more episodes, how many people are left on the show? And I still see I still see three, four, five, six, seven, eight people. Right. So, Right. But it's going to be eight people. Think about it. It's five weeks. That's what I'm saying. Eight people left. But next week, two are going, right? So now it's going to put it right on the right. I'm trying to whittle down to one or to the last two for the final. On that final, they'll bring other people back to if there's going to be any more weeks that are double or any more weeks that are none kind of thing. and maybe get ahead of the market and know that there's going to be none offered again in three weeks. Or if there's another double elimination, maybe you got a better chance with your strategy of just survive in advance. You know what I mean? I'm just thinking that that's another another um data point, another factor to consider when you're looking at these markets. Absolutely. It's a factor to consider. Um, I I think the way they've laid it out makes it a head-to-head competition at the end, right? But again, that that's a that's a good that's a good like barometer to use because there are double eliminations earlier in the season. Yeah. what you're going to end up with, and this is what happens every year. This is the this is the beauty of the way they've set it up with the fan voting and the coaching voting being combined or the the the judges voting being combined. You're these four these these these four people at the top or five I guess like Harry Shum, Jenna Dewan, Ezra French, Amber Glenn, they have been consistently at the top, right? And so right now the the type of um the type of of juice you're getting from a Jenna Dewan or a Harry Shum, you probably just want to sprinkle some on top and ask you because you've been talking about these guys that are great better dancers, right? And then I just saw this market and if you go on up, Alex, what's his name? Harry Shump, whatever. Yeah, I don't even Oh, Ezra French, I'm excuse me. the market is pricing this that Ezra French is gonna win this thing. It's a runaway. It's a runaway. And I'm telling you that that's happened. Like this isn't like insider trading, right? Because this this stuff happens live. So this isn't insider trading. This is people betting their money on Ezra French based off of his how how well he dances and his popularity. And I'm telling you that depending upon the week, that could be any one of these top people. That's why I'm asking like if you close that window, Alex, because to me the people are the the the the wisdom of the crowds are pricing Ezra French as a runaway, a dominant deserving favorite. If you close that up, Alex, I would you prefer sprinkling on Amber Glenn and Higgins and Jenna Dewan or Ezra French. Well, that's that's asking me, do you want the the favorite of the field? And I'll always take the field, right? I'll always take the field because the way you've been talking about it, Gene, is that there's kind of like this this tier of of of good dancers, right? But I'm seeing the market price it like Ezra French is in a is in a tier unto himself. So, I'm with you. Go back up to the um to the bar graph and and and look at the bar graph. Slide all the way up to the bar graph. Yeah. And watch go back to go back to earlier in the in the season. Yeah. Yeah. It wasn't always that. Yeah. This is this is the projections based off of what people are seeing. Maybe some of the the drama like Jenna Dewan's partner got um suspended for a week. Okay. And so she had to dance with a different partner. Again, it could be very well Ezra French wins it. But again, this isn't about who wins it. So go back down to the numbers. Yeah. To me, these numbers below Andrew French are so low. That's what I'm saying. To me, give me some of Jenna Dewan. Give me some more. I would if I if I took a $100 and and and just put just put $25 on um Harry Shump, right? For sure. For sure. Okay. Um 20. Right. Right. But but just watch because if the the more he doesn't get eliminated, it's not like the other stuff he's going to rise now. It's like just cash out. Exactly. You get an opportunity to cash out on all of those people who are there. So I really enjoy it. I really think it's a great place, you know, for this to be. Um it's a great time to invest. If you're trying to invest in Dancing with the Stars, now is the time. No, I like that. I like that just like Big Brother, you know, I got one of the contestants contestants at like 4% that wound up being in the final three and that 4% did she win? No. But she got up to 23% at one point, you know, and there's your cash out opportunity. So, because the public thinks Ezra French is such a runaway, you know, this Glenn Higgins Shump, they're gonna go from low single digits. to your point when all the fat is trimmed, right? And there's only five contestants left, you got to split the pie chart and they're all going to get bigger slices of the pie and that's what you can cash out. I think Gene, this is a great opportunity for us to close on. Absolutely. And and and it's been an enjoyable season of Dance with the Stars so far. Um NFL has been great. NBA is off and going. Um the the elections have been completely fascinating to to watch as all of this stuff unfold.