Survivor 50 Chaos: Ozzy’s Epic Misplay, RizGod's Rise and the Ultimate Devens Hedge on Kalshi

Hello everybody and welcome to your most favorite show in the whole wide world, the antenna. Show about shows, Stain Martinez. It's What's going on man? I'm Nando Defino and this is spoiler alert the saddest episode of all time. I knew you were going to say this. I knew you The boy goes down. He deserved it. He deserved it 100%. He absolutely did. And and and and the thing is we have been talking about the whole time about like how in essence Siri was his brain. Yeah. And as soon as he gets detached from Siri, all of a sudden he makes the stupidest move of all time, starting to blab to Aubrey. Jury management. Jury management will get you every time, dude. Exactly. Exactly. And I also knew, you know, you talk about the edit, right? And they also gave the edit about how he had this dream. They also had the edit about him talking with Devon's like, you know, feeling for his father and all that stuff. So, I could tell they were kind of building up you feeling for Azie. Azie thought this and then he didn't go for it. He talked about I don't want to get voted out with an idol in my pocket. And I was like, yo, play the effing idol. And then I love the Siri kind of I need to get message to him. I hope Rizzo does this. And then they cut to Rizzo and Rizzo's like I know Siri would want me to do this but Azie has effed up so bad that I don't think this is the right move anymore. And Rizzo was right. You know Siri was right. Rizzo was right. And it's just like Azie man as soon as you got detached from your, you know, your concier who was helping you grow your game. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You you you put your foot in your mouth, bro. Dude, um Rizgod I like he's the voice of reason for this show. Like holy crap, man. Like he makes more sense. And I don't again I don't know if this is just a good edit and they're just getting his good oneliners, but he's like speaking. He's the voice of the people, man. He's just saying all this that makes too much sense, dude. The RZ go the RZ god is rising, you know? Like it's holy crap. But I mean, what are you going to do? Like I mean, like people are going to come for him now. And it's gonna I It's going to be such a boring Joe Jonathan Aubrey final three now. I'm resigned to that, Dane. I'm completely resigned to Joe Jonathan Aubrey now. Yeah. Because listen, the Siri, Azie, Rizzo, Tiff group are gonna now get picked off one by one. Yeah. Right. like that's that's unfortunately I think how it's going to go. Um and the the markets would suggest that, right? Like Aubryy's up to 86. You also see all of a sudden the testimonials, the interviews with Aubrey, you see her starting, they're presenting her as now more strategic. They're presenting her as starting to say, "Hey, I was just this under the radar middle player. I'm not going to do that anymore." You can see that right now. Um I don't know if you're going to bring it up or what have you. Aubrey I can bring it up for the video for the video side. Yeah. What's up everybody? Aubryy's at 86 over on Cali. Siri, Joe, Jonathan, Rizzo all at two or three and then that's it, right? One, two, three, four, five. So those five people are above 1%. You know, Tiff is at one and all that. And to be honest, the math should be right. We're down to seven, you know. So, in a non-spoiler universe, um, everybody should be at 10% at least, right? Yeah. But that's not the case. So, the insiders insighting is kind of the deal. And now with only seven left, to your point, I see the path. You know, I I I I see the path now for Aubrey. And you're right. I think it's Aubrey, Joe, Jonathan, and Deans. I think those four are now a group that have the majority over Siri, Rizzo, and Tiff. Yeah. Uh it's uh I don't want to call it depressing. It's just it's like the latest seasons of uh uh Game of Thrones, right? You know, I don't know, dude. I I think that's right. But like I saw as soon as it went down, that's why it was so bad that Ozie put his foot in his mouth, you know? like cuz that that was really where it turned, you know. And so now that's that's what it is. Joe, Jonathan, Aubrey, um, and Devons are gonna become a power four. They're going to pick off Rizzo, Tiff, and Sere. You know, they don't want to let Serie get anywhere near the final three because they're scared of her. Right. Right. She doesn't have any advantages left. And I here's like is is it is it back out there? Like they didn't they didn't put Aubryy's idol back out there when she played hers as far as we know. So here's the question. Was Azy's a boomerang idol cuz he got back to Kenevieve, but she's gone. No, I'm saying Aussie just got So that's gone. Yeah. Right. Right. I think that's how Well, I was reading Reddit last night afterwards. Just angry reading Reddit last night, you know, like but everyone's saying the same thing like he just Aussie messed up, dude. I think Rizzo is the only idol currently owned right now. Yeah. And they're gonna have to I mean flush out Rizzo's idol next, I guess. And and and you know, to me, there were two huge moments in this episode. Huge season defining moments. We're talking about when Azie spilled the beans to Aubrey trying to like ingratiate favor. Uh Aubrey then used that huge spike for Aubrey in terms of why she potentially wins. Yeah. The other transformational moment and Nando I don't remember ever seeing this. If you by the way are listening to this podcast, watching us on YouTube, whatever it is, and you have an instance of this, hit us up in the comments. You can find Nando Nando Defino. You find me at Spitten Speeds. Check us out Speeds with a Zac. Yeah, of course. Uh at the seven oracles. Check us out. Sign up for the free newsletter. All that good stuff. It was huge. Nando. Yeah. That at first you thought Tiff won the challenge. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Right. With the balance and all that stuff and then Jeff is like, "What? We got an issue." The producers, the judges come up and Jonathan winds up winning that challenge. Y can you imagine if that was Tiff in that power seat being able to go back and forth? Tiff would have told Azie to play his idol. Tiff would have told, you know, um would have made that kind of juxaposition about it all completely different if it was Tiff that was able to go back and forth. The she would have fallen off though. If she had her foot up, she would have fallen off. So, wouldn't it, you know what I mean? But I understand like they caught it catching that on the caught. It was probably the quote unquote right call because Jonathan probably did in fact balance on one foot longer than Tiff did. Yep. But I'm literally like I'm watching I'm making notes and stuff, right? Like for our episode when Tiff wins, I'm like, "Oh, snap." Yes. Here we go. Because it also would have been two in a row for Tiff. Then all of a sudden Tiff's kind of building a resume. And then when it turns out what the what the catch was that they split the groups, whatever. If Tiff was in that position, this like our alliance that we liked, the Azie, Rizzo, Siri, TIFF group would have remained in power. period. It was a complete fork in the road that switch, which you're right. The judges got it right, let's say, but that that completely changes the narrative of the tribes in power. And in my opinion, ultimately, who wins Survivor 50? Yeah, that uh man, oh well, in another universe, someone didn't catch that, you know? Right. They caught it live, too. You know what I mean? Like, it wasn't I mean, like I don't know what they would have done. They couldn't. I mean, I guess you would have to like find a clever edit if you figured it out afterwards or maybe even stop the game because there's so much money involved. Like, how would you do that? Anyway, I guess it's not. Of course, they're going to catch it live. Think about it. We seeing that with the edits like the amount of time it would take them to like, you know, bring the boats back to shore and all that. They They're watching it live. They definitely found it. Maybe it was 20 minutes later, but yeah, they were still on the they were still on the barge out in the water when when it all happened. But yeah, that was huge, man. Um, I wrote I wrote a couple notes that I'm torn on this and I you know I'd like your like number one fan this fan angle has completely disappeared and maybe that's good and maybe not but like gone completely gone. Number two Oh, go ahead. I'll give you one. I knew you were going to bring that up. And like we So to me what we what we have said is I'm not complaining. I'm just like, you know, stick to a theme, dude. What we have said is that we like the twists that are making game play tougher for the players, right? That are a monkey wrench that these people who have played before, who are strategic, who have who might be ahead of the game, who know how to plan and play the game. We love the twist that throw them off. We loved the pairs twist when you had to vote the pair off. We love that. I loved this one because it broke it up. It was something that hadn't been done, something they had to contend with strategy-wise. You even saw how it played out for even someone like Si, right? Someone like Jonathan, how big it was. Otherwise, you get these celebrity Billy Isish, Jimmy Fallon, Zack Brown Band or whatever. Nando and I hate those. But did you see the Billy Isish interview? Did you see her? She's like, I don't watch Survivor. She was talking to Amy Polar. Nonsense. But the pair one and this one throws a wrinkle into the gameplay. So, I'm with you. I liked it. the uh so you brought up the other one and like I saw a little bit of this on Reddit like everyone's angry that they were split like it's a merge dude like let them merge you got to stop this is like the second time you've broken them up into little tribes and like but I've also been reading a lot about the Zoom alliance you know with Stephanie gone like a lot of people are asking her questions about her exit interviews and your girl Camila talked about that too y a long time and it's like well this is a way like if we complain like well these guys had an alliance you know four of them were together if you split them up chaos can h you know you kind of have to do that especially with a season like this with a season like this you have to do it right if it's like season 51 is going to be all brand new people they don't know each other so then you don't have to do this but you have to do these kind of wrinkles because of their experience expertise and previous relationships and I go you go back to and I think that Boston Rob remember Boston Rob and I think Sandra were like mentors for a season and then they threw I guess that's another way that you can fix But that was kind of dumb and boring. Um with the two of them like like not you know what I mean? Like it's like okay you get your returning players but like not really but then you do like it it's just I love these returning player seasons. Um but I like because you know like you get to you get a second chance and you know where I messed up my strategy last time I fixed it. But these like these dumb preplay there's another thing I read I think off of Reddit where like a bunch of people were saying that they were told they were in for this season for this season and then yeah and then they weren't it turns out and it it was uh Dominic I think was one of them. Okay. But like a bunch of other people kind of came out and said like yeah I was told I was in and I think I read one comment that I thought was great. It had been on Reddit and then if I was reading the comment was like they did this to prevent pregaming. So, like if you tell 60 people that they're in the season and they all just start an alliance, but then they don't show up on the beach, now what? Yeah. And then you pull a rug from them at the end and maybe you throw them in 52 or 55 or whatever, you know, down the road to make up for it. Uh, you know, like you kind of prevent that in a way. I think that's smart. I think they also they knew that they were going to put some people from 49, but they probably didn't know how many. They didn't know who, right? eventually and ultimately it was Rizzo and Savannah, right? So that was another kind of unknown ingredient to the Survivor 50 mix. Um but that's a great point, Nano and I think that makes sense. That is how you prevent the alliance by kind of like overbooking the flight, right? Yeah. Yep. And so here's my last thought on this. Rizzo, the Riz god, I just wrote this and it must have been late when I was falling asleep. Rizzo is the guy who shoots foul shots like and then I like he's the guy who shows up to the gym early. He shoots the foul shots, you know? He's not like flash. He's not he's just like he's like let me just do this repetitively over and over again until I'm good at it because he watched I assume you know every single season. Yeah. He's a huge fan. Yeah. He but he doesn't like overdo the super fan thing too much. You know like he's kind of like a likable uh subtle superfan who just researched the crap out of the game and understands the nuances of it. You know what I mean? Like and has picked I think the parts that everybody else loves. Like be a man and own your strategy. That kind of stuff. like this has worked before and you know I I man I I wish there was a market for final three right like there isn't but I think we would do really well with a final three market because I would just like to invest in Rizzo somehow you know yeah I'm not I'm on Rizzo I got Rizzo at 4% unfortunately he's fallen because I mean again not for him to win just you know if there was like survivor trading cards I would buy the Rizzo card because I think he's popular and like you know or if there was a market like who will be invited back for another season, right? Like they're gonna bring Rizzo back again. 100%, dude. And he could be I mean like the thing is you can't put him with like here's five returnees and then like you know 17 other people. Rizzo's got to play an all-star season because he would like Rizzo and Russell Hans together running through an all-star season, right? But now it's going to be like Rizzo on the Traders and like Rizzo on Big Brother and that's what's going to happen. He's got to run that gauntlet. Rizzo is set for life. Rizzo is gonna be just fine. Rizzo Rizzo is gonna be on the speaking tours. Rizzo's gonna have a million followers. Rizzo's gonna be, you know, doing ads. Rizzo, good job, brother. Just don't tweet anything dumb, right? Stay out of politics. Yeah. Stay out of politics and you'll be fine. That's it. Don't be Absolutely. Be a guest host on Mr. Beast Games. That kind of stuff, right? Exactly, dude. Yeah. Exact 100%. That is Rizzo's Yeah. retirement fund. Exactly. Exactly. Just by saying smart things on Survivor. Right. Absolutely. And then and I guess the other thing that I want to mention here is you talked about it being disappointing because now we see the path to Aubrey and like oh the insiders. But the other thing is I was really excited about this episode because the insiders for this episode were wrong. Yes. It was Siri and Devons. Yep. And then as soon as the split happened and Devons were on the same beach, I was like, "Oh my god, this is wrong, right? It's wide open." You know, like we don't know who it's going to be, right? I'm not talking about the overall. I'm talking about like, you know, last episode. Yeah. Pull I'm pulling that one out. I got to find it. I don't know if they still have that up that because that market's probably closed, right? I'll find it. Survivor episode 11. Even it's closed, you can still see the graph. That's true. You can see the line graph, right? So it was Devons and Seri and then as soon as and you know we have been lamenting the idea there it is look at that you know we have been lamenting the idea and then you saw that big thing happened right that big fl you know the lines crossed and so for a long time it was Devons and Siri but then as soon or when I checked in on the market and invested um here's where it turned it turned right there in the late morning and then it completely flipped around one o'clock Yep. And so as soon as I saw that, oh, it's not going to be Devon and Ser because they're on the same beach. It might be one of them. And ultimately it was neither, right? All of a sudden I had such a renewed enthusiasm for the rest of the episode, right? Because it was literally unknown for me. And there was this kind of twist that I thought was all about gameplay. And I gotta tell you, I thought maybe Siri was gonna go. I thought maybe Siri was gonna go home. I thought maybe like I didn't think I think the the the group was kind of too smart to realize that Devons would not play the idol for Emily, like Emily's plot of how it was going to work. I was like, I don't know. But I thought that uh Jonathan wanted Siri out. I thought Jonathan um Emily, you know, and Devons wanted Siri out and that would be enough. Like I I was ant I was like, "Wow, this is legitimately where Siri could fall. Wow, this is legitimately where Aubrey could fall. Wow, this is legitimately where the big thing that goes outside of the markets could happen. And I had this kind of spike in interest for the last 40 minutes as soon as I realized that Devons and Siri could not be the two as for the markets, you know. Yeah. My problem was I looked at it anyway and saw the flip and I knew, you know, like I just, you know, one of these days just like the purity of it all again, you know, maybe I'll go watch like season 44. I don't know who won, you know what I Like if they weren't on the show. Wait, am I messing up? Uh, you know, the antenna, we're going to have a few more episodes here of the antenna on Survivor. Maybe we create What could be interesting is let's say the next show we do over the summer, right, that we follow. One of us is committed and we look at the markets, but the other one does not. That's a good idea. It's a good idea, right? Yep. Yeah. Because I'm not doing presenting both perspectives. What's what's So here's the fun thing from the markets perspective though Dane is like now they've messed up twice. Remember that week it was supposed to be Christian and Christian did the last second only two times I actually put money. Yeah the time the two time and so that's the like maybe we should start zagging now at this point. I mean like if Siri when we look at it on Monday is 99% 95 point whatever percent should we put a penny on. Yeah, maybe better to know actually is the way to do it. But I was gonna say go do a bunch of penny stocks instead, right? I mean, which one's better with the math? There's only two more episodes though, bro. It's only gonna happen one more time. You know, there's next episode where we get, in my opinion, we're at seven. We're going to get down to either five or six next week, right? And then is the finale. And so there won't be that kind of market because everyone gets eliminated except for the winner, right? So there's only one more time where it happens. And to be honest, like it's clear to me honestly like Serei, Rizzo, and Tiff are clearly together and then the other four are, you know, will clearly want to pick Siri off definitely, but they're still idol. There's still, you know, there's still the fire making. And look, I'm just looking down the road at like how you fit a final three in. Aubre's just been I don't know, man. I don't know if we should learn a lesson here. and that just like just leave it alone, dude. Aubrey has won because it's going to be whoever insiders is Aubrey and two much lesser people or uh I don't know, man. Like, do we just still like kind of go in on the I know we have no Aubrey, but do we just go in on these pennies across the board like $3 on each penny? You know, just like Jonathan and Joe. Yeah. Uh, not even those two because I I think Aubrey winning presupposes that Jonathan and Joe are the other two on her side because or Devons or Devons. Devons has Devons can beat her. Deans could beat her by a ton, man. Deans could beat her and Yeah, that's true. They probably want to get Devon like once they get our cool people alliance out. Yeah, Evans has to be their target because they recognize that with the beast flip and the idols and the fake idol plant that he did every episode that the jury will respect. He played an idol at the right time. You know what I mean? Like he like he didn't play it for Emily, but he came up with a plan where you're saying you believe the final and I think I agree with you. But you believe the final three now is Aubrey, Joe, Jonathan. That's the only way Aubrey wins because all Aubrey did this episode was be told by an idiot that the entire plan and then she blabbed it. You're right. That's not strategy. Evans in the final. Aubrey doesn't beat Devon. He won't beat. No, she'll beat She'll sweep Joe and John like Joe and Jonathan. She'll beat them in a Right. And Tiff put Tiff in the finals. Doesn't do anything. But you can't put Tiff in the final because Serei, Azie, Rizzo are all her people. You know, if she makes it to the final four, if you get rid of Devon, well, yeah, you get rid of Deans and you get rid of Series as the next two, say, right? And then you're down to five, like she could lose a firemaking challenge. You know what I mean? Tiff could get in there in a fire making ch, you know, like there's a way you could get in there and then they could also be like might have a little bit of a resume, though. Jonathan's won some challenges. Jonathan's triggered D. Remember, I'd rather if I was Aubrey, I think I'd rather sit in the final with Joe. No one's gonna vote for Joe and Tiff. I wouldn't want Serei there. I wouldn't want Devon's there. I wouldn't want Rizzo there. No, I would want I wouldn't want Devon's there, right? So, that leaves Joe and Tiff. You want Joe and Tiff in the final with you. You want to be against Joe and Tiff in the final. You don't want to be against Deans. You don't want to be against Serei. I don't think you want to be against Rizzo either. Well, flip it like this. If you're Serei and you're in and you've won the final immunity and you know, let's say you want to pick the two you want to play with. Joe and Aubrey, you want Joe and Aubrey. Aubrey would be one of them. She's one of the weakest players, man. Unless Yeah. So, like there's got to be a way for us to look at this market and say like, hey, look, like the way Aubrey does it, we know. And uh we could be resigned to the fact that that's it, but there have been two little kind of like aberrations in the last few weeks where like all right. So out of the seven that are left, I think the most dangerous final adversaries right are Devon's. Yep. Rizzo, Jonathan. And we have to bring along are Aubrey, Joe, and Tiff. that have the lowest resume. The only one we don't have anything on is Devon's really. We have a no Aubrey. You got Tiff. You got Rizzo. Yep. We don't just don't have Devon's money. I got S. I got a lot of Siri. But at this point, we would bet no Devons. And that's like 98%. So that's not I would No. See, I'm saying I would do buy Deans. Yes. In case this is wrong, right? In case Aubrey makes it to the final three with Devon Deon and Deans wins like firemaking. Not. Yeah. Just say Deans somehow finds his way into the final three or into the final four. Yeah. And wins fire against like Jonathan or something. Deans is like Rizzo's three cents, Jonathan's three cents, Joe's four cents, Ser's 5 cents, Aubryy's 86. I mean, unless you see like, hey, let's buy let's put our savings in on Aubrey at 86 cents and get like, you know, a,000 bucks on Aubrey, which I'm not doing. I'm just saying strategically, right? You know, you throw that in. We believe that we already we have to be against Aubrey. We already invested in Siri. I mean, we already invested in Rizzo, right? The one person we believe could be impressive and have a resume at Final Tribal that would get jury votes that we do not have in our portfolio is Evans. if we just came into this fresh this week. If someone's listening to this for the first time and has made it 20 minutes in, uh, and they're like, "What should I do with my money?" Like, don't do anything with it is my first bit of advice because this has been just too weird. But if you want to have some fun and a rooting interest and you put $5 on a one-scent Rick Evans to win, uh, there have been enough mistakes from the spoiler crowd for me at least to be like, you know, the wisdom of the crowds is sometimes a frenzy of the crowds and like everyone just keeps piling on Aubrey, Aubrey, Aubrey, Aubrey. And maybe it's right, but that's only if they know that Aubrey made it with Tiff, Joe, or Jonathan and Deon, Siri, and Rizzo are the next three to go. If they're not, then that that flips the whole thing on its head. Ev, and Rizzo all I think beat Aubrey in the final. You're right. That's what Yeah. Right. And then Tiff maybe has a shot too, dude. I mean, like Tiff could claim like, you know, Siri and I were doing all of this, you know, we were working in tandem. Yes. And Yeah. All Aubrey did was listen to Azie. And that's what we've seen so far. And there are two episodes left and probably like five hours to watch left, you know, like. But you're right. See how Aubrey gets all the jury votes. That's it. Unless she does something crazy in the next couple episodes, but like everyone is you're not going to out scheme Deans at this point. It's too late. People dislike Joe. So Aubrey has to want to take Joe with her. Yeah, that third is a liability. Whoever it is, that third, whoever that third is in most cases, I think could stack up and get votes against Aubrey. But that whole if that if that's Jonathan and the jury as it's made up right now, like no one's giving no one's giving anything to either of those two except for Aubrey, right? Nobody likes Jonathan, man. He's he's a boob. He's a boob, man. She's got to take Joe and Jonathan. Yeah. That's how she wins. And so that's what this 86 cent I think that's what's built into this 86 cent Aubrey. And so I'm saying if they're wrong and they've been wrong twice now in the last three weeks, we got a shot at, you know, a Rick Deans three dollars on Rick Devon. Right. Or the other way to do it is if you believe if you believe Aubryy's Aubrey's the winner. Yeah. And you agree with us in terms of what must be in Aubrey's mind about who she takes to the final to get her victory. What you could do is bet next week on the elimination market. No Joe, no Jonathan. You're right. Right. Yeah, that's a good one. You know, Aubrey's gonna want to take Joe. Everyone wants to take Joe, which is sad in a way. Like I mean, he's weepy and he just kind of like follows, but in a way like he's been very independent and has Yeah. stuck with his ideals up until this Aussie like there's there's memes of him now just looking sad when Deon does De flipped the coin. He's still Right. Right. Right. Yeah. Yeah. He's got his head down depressed. But like there's that's a good market. That's what I'm going to look at when it comes out next week. You know, obviously the first thing we look at is up. Who's at 90% already? Damn, we know. But I think that could be the way to play it. No on Joe because at this point, Joe gets the least jury votes in my opinion of everyone left. Right. So that by association then means everybody wants to take Joe so Joe doesn't get voted out next week. Yeah, Joe is safe. There's nobody. I mean, like maybe he wins a couple immunities, but who cares? Like that that's great, you know, like for your plan. If you want to take Joe, like please let him let him win immunities, right? Like everyone is comfortable with Joe staying on the island. Yeah. Yeah. Which which means we bet no Joe for next week to be eliminated in a way though, man. He I mean, like, and again, this isn't going to happen, but like if you start to think about it, there's some nuance to Joe that he should get a couple votes maybe. Like he stuck hard to his game and he got all the way through just being I play an honest game, coach. might vote for Joe. He could he'll respect the, you know, samurai warrior ethics spirit kind of guy. Chrissy might maybe. It's not enough. Joel can't win. Yeah. But you're right. Joe could get to the final because people want to sit there against Joe. If he takes that whole like I played the game in the face of everyone else trying to lie, cheat, and steal. And then you get Aussie being like, well, you lied to me, you know, like blah blah blah. You blindsided me. How honorable is that? Then you got to answer for that. But he did reveal all this and I guess it wasn't he wasn't part of that. Anyway, neither here nor there, but I think we landed on something good here. Dave. Yeah, absolutely. And if you want to land on more stuff, that's good. Sevenoracles.com. You can subscribe to our free newsletter. We are getting you paid. You could go pro and get access to all of our tools. But we got great content. And remember, you can hit us up on social media. And also, if you want to have a voice for what show do we discuss over the summer? We've only got a few episodes of Survivor left, but if you tell us, listen, we love the antenna. Over the summer, do uh Top Chef, do Bachelor in Paradise, do whatever. Traders UK responsive to you. So, let us know. We're here for you. We are a service industry, the antenna, if nothing else. Really, technically, that is the essence of an antenna. Let us be your two pointy things in the air. It's true. Yeah. Look at how we're figuring things out here live. Um for Spinning Speeds Dane Martinez, I am Nanda Deino. This is the antenna. We'll see you next week. The tribe has spoken.