Buy the DWTS Underdog Early? How to Profit When the Odds Rise! | Dancing with the Stars Wk 7
November 1, 2026 · 5:33 · Dancing With the Stars
What’s in this video
Seven Oracles discusses Dancing with the Stars prediction markets, focusing on how traders might find value in low-priced contestants like Jenna Dewan and Harry Shum, both trading at 5% to win. They explain that as other contestants get eliminated, remaining contestants should absorb more of the overall probability, creating potential opportunities to exit positions at higher prices before the finale. They also touch on related elimination markets and compare the dynamic to situations in other markets like Big Brother and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Key points
- Jenna Dewan and Julia Stiles are trading at 5% and 4% respectively to win, despite being viewed as early favorites.
- Hosts argue that as contestants get eliminated, remaining traders' implied probabilities should rise since the total must redistribute, like slices of a pie chart.
- Harry Shum is also highlighted as trading at 5% despite once being seen as a top contender.
- Hosts note that fan bases shifting their support to remaining favorites after eliminations can boost a contestant's survival chances beyond expectations.
- The strategy discussed is entering a position early while a contestant is undervalued and exiting as their price rises with continued survival, rather than needing them to win outright.
- Hosts reference separate elimination-specific markets and compare the pattern to past situations on Big Brother and in NFL markets involving the Philadelphia Eagles.
Full transcript
I'll just start here. You know who wasn't eliminated? Tatiana. Tatiana Ali. So again, if we're just talking about the winner and survive in advance, man, we we're just talking about in a row, right? Four weeks in a row, you would have hit this. Absolutely. If we're just talking about the no on who's like go to the elimination one. Um go to the elimination, not just to the winner. And and and what I just want people to understand is that um and you know what we might be we might be seeing something. We got might have to give Poly Market a call if they don't have the elimination up here. Like like that's not going to come on Poly Market now. Come on people. Um yeah, I don't see it. What we were seeing what we were seeing was like hey we go to the elimination and you see the people who are being eliminated. Right. And and and it says you know who will get eliminated in week number eight or week number nine of there are markets out there like that. Right. Yeah. And so like with those markets, you're seeing that the bottom the bottom level guys are coming down to okay, who's popular versus who's good. And now and let's go to the winner right now. So So um scroll up. Jenna Dean is 5% to be the winner, right? Jenn is 5% to be the winner. If she survives another week, she can't keep staying at 5%. Right. Right. Julia Styles is 4% to be the winner. If she if she if she continues to survive, she can't just be, you know, it just can't continue to be 4%. Tatiana Ali is going to stay low in this one because they know that she's not winning, right? And that's the thing. If they know that you're not going to win, then you're never going to accelerate. We saw that in in um Big Brother. Big Brother, right? We saw that in Big Brother. If you're not Yeah. If if if they don't believe you're going to win, you'll just stay there. Which is why getting eliminated matters because if they don't think you're winning, they think you're going to get eliminated at some point. But for Jenna Dewan, who was probably the favorite coming into this thing to only be at 5% right now, you got to just you got to just put a little bit on that investment. Sprinkle on it. Yeah, you got to sprinkle it. And and and the truth is we're talking Ezra French versus the Field, right? We're talking Ezra French versus the Field. And for the field, we're talking everybody except for Amber Glenn being at single digits. Yeah, you talked about it. When things were at single digits, you you almost just have to throw some money. Yeah. Jenna Dewan. Amber Glenn. And we said this even last week. In essence, Jenna Dewan is the Amy Actton of [laughter] of Dancing with the Stars kind of in some way. No, but I really if Jenna Dewan gets to the if she gets to the final three, you telling me she's still going to be at 5%? Because think about it this way. It's a pie chart, right? And as other slices get removed and eliminated, other candidates have to absorb that percentage in some way. Now, will Ezra French absorb a lot of it as well? Sure. Sure. But you know that Jenna Dwan five will become nine, will become 12, will become 13 week by week. And there's your cash out opportunity right there. Right there. Gina's been talking about this week after week after week. And you still have a chance with some of these people in the mid single digits. Absolutely. I think and and here's the thing to remember about Dancing with the Stars. Ezra French isn't going to win it because he was the best dancer all year. Is he the best dancer at the end of the season? Ah, that's what's going to matter, right? It's not an accumulation of what he did all year, although people might take that into consideration. It's who's hot at the end, right? And again, when when when these fan bases who love Julius Styles but also love Tatiana Ali, when one of those people go away and that entire fan base decides to shift their shift their attention over to the other person, does it make them even stronger where they have a chance to survive longer than what they really should? Like, who in this top three goes home before they really should? Look at Harry Shum down at five. Harry Shum and and Jenna Dewan were two of the people that at one point in time everybody thought had a chance to win Dancing with the Stars and now both of them are trading at 5%. I just can't imagine if they get to the top three or to the top four or to the top two that they're still going to be at 5%. Why would you not throw a little something on it? Right. I like it. I like it. And a lot of these things, it's about getting it early with the idea that, you know, these things, that's why these trading markets are so great. It's not a sports book, okay? It's live. You're trading against other peers in a live market. And the opportunity here for cashing out is so great. Remember, we were talking about the Philadelphia Eagles, right? Now Jaylen Herz is out. There's all that B, right? And that would have been a lot different and you could go ahead and cash
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