FADE THE POLLS, BACK THE PREDICTION MARKETS for Alaska Senate!
October 4, 2026 Β· 2:39 Β· The 7 Oracles
Whatβs in this video
The host of The 7 Oracles argues that prediction markets have consistently outperformed polls, pointing to Polymarket correctly pricing all seven 2024 swing states for Trump, including 61% the night before the election. He then flags a gap in the Alaska Senate race, where forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball call it a toss-up and Inside Elections leans it Republican for Dan Sullivan, while prediction markets price Mary Peltola, the Democrat, at 71%.
Key points
- Prediction markets correctly had all seven 2024 swing states for Trump, with Polymarket showing Trump at 61% the night before the election.
- Forecasters rate the Alaska Senate race as a toss-up (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) or leaning Republican (Inside Elections) for incumbent Dan Sullivan.
- Prediction markets currently price the race at 71% for Democrat Mary Peltola, creating a gap versus the forecaster consensus.
- The host notes Alaska's rank choice voting system has upset favorites before, but says Peltola has won statewide office previously.
- He frames this gap as a trade opportunity ahead of the midterms, citing the market's track record of beating polls.
- The 7 Oracles promotes its newsletter and election tracker, which compares forecaster views to prediction market pricing, with a promo code mentioned for a subscription discount.
Full transcript
Honestly, these days polls for elections are like eight tracks. They are relics of the past. Remember back in the last presidential election, there were seven swing states, right? The prediction markets had all seven swing states correctly for Donald Trump. Poly market had Trump 61% the night before the election. Okay? And if you keep on with this thesis, knowing that prediction markets are better predictors than the polls, boy, do I have an opportunity for you. There is an edge in the Alaska Senate race where Dan Sullivan, a Republican, is running for reelection. A lot of the forecasters out there have it going Republican. Uh the Cook Political Report, they have it as a tossup. Sabato's Crystal Ball has it as a tossup. Inside elections, they actually have it leaning Republican, okay, against the Democrat that is running Mary Pela. But here's the deal. The prediction markets have it trading right now at 71 cents on the other side for the Democrat in this race. Now remember, Alaska, they use a rank choice system, okay? And that has burned favorites before, but PTOA has won statewide office before in elections. So this is a complete opportunity. If the markets are better than the polls, which they have been, and that has been proven, then the Alaska Senate race is a place where you could go ahead and trade Democrat right now at 70%. It is still a value because the politics, the polls, everyone still thinks it's a tossup. Guess what? It is not. This one is going to go Democrat. This is a good trade to make in advance of the midterm elections. And by the way, if you want tools like this, if you want insights like this, you got to get down with us at the Seven Oracles, okay? We've got a free newsletter. We've got great content and we have tools like this on our website. It could be elections, it could be politics, it could be entertainment, it could be sports, it could be Bitcoin, gold, and silver, and even the weather. It doesn't matter. We are here to give you an edge. We are here to help you profit in prediction markets. And right now, if you use the promo code NFL26, as you sign up, you will get 26% off on a subscription to us over at the Seven Oracles. We've got a an election tracker where we show you the difference between what the forecasters are saying and where the prediction markets have it different. And remember, in all these situations in the previous few years, it has been the prediction markets that are doing better at predicting than the polls. And if this is any indication, there is a huge gap and another edge in the Alaska Senate race.
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