Friday, April 3, 2026
Play of the Day
The 7 Oracles’ prediction market play for Friday, April 3, 2026 — permanent record.
Will Lee Zeldin be announced as next Attorney General?
POSITION
YES
ENTRY PRICE
60¢
CLOSES
Jun 30, 2026
Zeldin is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi vs. 68¢ on Polymarket. Our Bayesian fair value is 75¢. The "acting" Blanche designation is the strongest signal — it means someone else is coming. Every major outlet independently names Zeldin. That's a +25% expected return at the current Kalshi price.
Trump fired Bondi on April 2. Todd Blanche was named ACTING AG — not permanent. Under the Vacancies Reform Act, "acting" means placeholder while the real nominee is prepared. CNN, CNBC, Time, and Fox News all independently report Zeldin as the leading candidate Trump has "discussed most." Our Bayesian analysis tracks Zeldin from a 3% prior (no vacancy existed) to 68% posterior in three update steps. The 8¢ spread between Kalshi (60¢) and Polymarket (68¢) exists because Polymarket incorporates political information faster — historically Kalshi follows within 24–72 hours. Weighted EV: (0.75 × $1) + (0.15 × $0) + (0.10 × $0) = $0.75. Buying at 60¢ = +25% expected return. Entry: 60¢ | Target: 80¢ (+33%) | Stop: 45¢ (-25%). Size at 2–5% of portfolio. Catalyst: formal nomination expected within 1–3 weeks.
Graded August 10, 2026 · P/L math per our published track-record method.