Play of the Day

This is not a conviction play. It is a wide-open field priced on name recognition, and the value is in the tail. Start with the base rate nobody prices in: multiple press secretaries is not a Trump thing. Biden had two in four years, Obama three over eight, George W. Bush four, Clinton five. The job burns people out. That is what rules out the trusted-advisor and family names near the top of the board — Natalie Harp and Lara Trump are not taking a role designed to be temporary. Anna Kelly (27¢) is the obvious successor as Deputy Press Secretary, but when Leavitt was on maternity leave they rotated cabinet members through the podium instead of handing it to her. That was the layup opportunity and they passed. Read that as a signal she is better as a No. 2 — no disservice; the job is nearly impossible. Alina Habba (14¢) is a strong speaker and an accomplished lawyer, which makes this close to a step down. The role wants sharp and able to control a room, not intellectual firepower. There has been exactly one lawyer in the history of the job (Kayleigh McEnany), and she was a media personality by the time she was tapped. Scott Jennings (17¢) got as high as 25.7¢ before Leavitt took the job — he was a front-runner then too, and the question is whether four women in a row reads as a trend or as a man being due. Roulette wheel or blackjack deck. Roma Daravi is the answer. Former White House deputy director of strategic communications, currently VP of PR at the Kennedy Center. She has the tone and the inflection of a press secretary and she can deliver a message. Inside the circle, but not so far inside that leaving after eighteen months breaks anything. Communications is her actual job and she has been handling media for a long time. Sizing, on $50: 40 Daravi, 7 Kari Lake (4¢ — media chops, campaign experience, at ease with journalists), 3 Spencer Pratt (2¢ — the Sean Spicer-style out-of-nowhere pick Trump has shown a liking for). Trump is hard to read, and some of his appointments are genuinely inspired precisely because they come out of left field. None of the current favorites are interesting enough for him. Note the entry. Daravi traded near 24¢ when this was written and sits at 4¢ now, with a real two-sided book — 3,200 contracts in the last 24 hours and roughly 3,500 open interest. The thesis did not change; the price did. Market resolves on who first begins serving, acting or interim included.