UFC 334 Odds & Predictions: The Garden Deserved a Bigger Night, but Josh Hokit Is Not Going Away

The UFC's November trip to Madison Square Garden is supposed to be the biggest night on its calendar. Here is my fight-by-fight read on UFC 334, next to what the market is charging for each side. New to reading a price as a probability? Start with the prediction markets guide.

Every bout, one tale of the tape at a time, with the live Kalshi and Polymarket US price per fighter straight off the card page.

Is this really a Garden-level card?

Not by the standard this building set. I was in the seats for UFC 205 in 2016, the first card New York ever hosted: McGregor against Alvarez on top and a lineup that had no business being that deep. After that came Bisping and St-Pierre, Masvidal and Diaz with The Rock strapping on the BMF belt, Adesanya and Pereira, Jones and Miocic. November at MSG meant legends.

This year the main event is a champion carrying a reputation for fouls against a challenger with four UFC fights. It is a hard headliner to love. It is still a fight, though, and that is the one advantage this sport has over every other one. If a tennis match broke out in a bar in Hoboken, I would keep eating. A fight has my full attention, and the stranger the matchup, the better.

Gane vs. Hokit: why does the champion look like the uncomfortable one?

Because of how he got here. Ciryl Gane (14-2, 1 NC) fought Tom Aspinall for the title in October 2025 and the fight ended in a no contest after an accidental eye poke. Aspinall has not fought since and gave up the belt in September. In between, Gane stopped Alex Pereira in the second round on the White House South Lawn in June, and Pereira said the finishing shots landed behind his head. Gane says the fouls were accidents and that he knows who he is.

Josh Hokit (10-0) has built his whole fight week on it. He showed up to Thursday's press conference in goggles and an eye patch. I do not especially like Hokit, and Dana White has said he does not like the act either. I just do not think liking him is going to be optional much longer. He feels a little inevitable.

My read: Gane fights carefully because he cannot afford a third controversy, and a careful heavyweight in front of relentless pressure is an awkward heavyweight. I think Hokit leaves New York with the belt, and I think it ends by knockout. The market disagrees by about two to one, which is exactly why this is the fight on the card worth having an opinion on.

Miller vs. McKinney: is this Jersey Jim's goodbye?

It could be, and that is my hunch, not a report. Jim Miller (39-19) is 43, he is New Jersey's own, and he has never lost in this building. He beat Thiago Alves here at UFC 205 after Alves missed weight, and he won here again at UFC 309. Terrance McKinney (18-9) is the opposite kind of fighter: everything he has comes in the first few minutes.

One more wrinkle from Friday's official weigh-ins: McKinney came in at 160.2 pounds, over the 156-pound lightweight limit, so he forfeits 30% of his purse to Miller and the fight goes on as scheduled (UFC.com). The Alves fight at UFC 205 started the same way.

Kalshi has McKinney at 67 cents and Miller at 34. If Miller gets out of the first round, I like the old submission artist to find a neck. A win in front of that crowd is as close to retiring at home as a fighter gets.

Dober vs. Duncan: the fight of the night nobody is talking about?

That is how I see it. Drew Dober (29-15) has the experience and the heavier hands. Chris Duncan (15-3) brings the pressure and the wrestling, and he can crack too. Kalshi has Duncan at 62 cents and Dober at 39, and to me that is wider than the fight. I would not be surprised by a knockout either way, and I lean Dober landing first. Whoever wins should walk out with a bonus check.

Harrison vs. Nunes and Holland: two quick ones

Kayla Harrison (19-1) defends the women's bantamweight title against Amanda Nunes (23-5), back from retirement. Kalshi has Harrison at 61 cents and Nunes at 41. I see Harrison grinding out a decision, and I would not be shocked if Nunes hangs them up again afterward.

Kevin Holland (29-15) is 40 cents against Uroš Medić (14-3) at 61. I do not think that one sees the third round, and I do not think it goes Holland's way.

What is the market charging for the rest of the card?

Kalshi's price to buy each fighter, in cents, at 10:51 p.m. ET on Friday, November 13. These are the market's numbers, not my reads, and they will move before the walkouts.

Two things stand out. Bilal Hasan at 88 cents is the biggest favorite on the card by a wide margin, and Elder against Sanches is the only bout the market cannot split. Turn any of these into American odds with the Probability Converter.

Where can you trade UFC 334?

On Kalshi, which lists all 13 bouts, and on Polymarket US, which is the title sponsor of this card and lists UFC fights as well. Both are prediction markets, not a sportsbook: you buy a contract on a fighter and it settles at $1 or $0. Availability varies by state. If you are choosing between the two, read Kalshi vs. Polymarket US, and if you are opening an account, see the Polymarket US promo code page first.

What else is on the MMA calendar?

PFL Dubai runs the same day, and PFL is the promotion we cover deepest, including the World Tournament futures. The MMA hub has every card, and /mma/next-ufc always points at whichever UFC card is up next. Earlier UFC reads: UFC Paris and Noche UFC.

Kalshi prices were read from Kalshi's public market data at 10:51 p.m. ET on November 13, 2026 and will move. The card page carries the live state. Trade responsibly.