Tournament Odds
How the 2026 World Cup outright-winner market finished — champions Spain and runners-up Argentina led the board into the July 19 final. Final outright prices for every team Kalshi ran a champion market on, alongside the Kalshi and Polymarket snapshot. Click any team for their full profile.
Tournament Favorites
Outright winner — Kalshi
Live Kalshi prices · updated Jul 19, 3:00 PM UTC
Prediction Markets
Win probability — Kalshi + Polymarket
Updated 11:00 AM EDT
Full tracker →World Cup 2026 Champion Odds — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Model
Implied probability to win the 2026 World Cup on each exchange, beside The 7 Oracles 10,000-run model. Both are tradeable for US readers — Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and available in all 50 states; Polymarket has served US traders since December 2025. The gap is the difference between the two exchanges, in percentage points.
| Team | Grp | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | H | 59% | 99% | 56.7% | 40pp |
| Argentina | J | 43% | 1% | 43.3% | 42pp |
| England | L | 24% | 1% | 0.0% | 23pp |
| France | I | 23% | 1% | 0.0% | 22pp |
| Norway | I | 7% | 1% | 0.0% | 6pp |
| Portugal | K | 7% | 1% | 0.0% | 6pp |
| Mexico | A | 6% | 1% | 0.0% | 5pp |
| Morocco | C | 4% | 1% | 0.0% | 3pp |
| Colombia | K | 4% | 1% | 0.0% | 3pp |
| Belgium | G | 3% | 1% | 0.0% | 2pp |
| Switzerland | B | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | 1pp |
| Brazil | C | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Egypt | G | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | 0pp |
| Korea Republic | A | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| South Africa | A | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Canada | B | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Qatar | B | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Scotland | C | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Haiti | C | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Paraguay | D | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Australia | D | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Germany | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Curaçao | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Côte d'Ivoire | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Ecuador | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Netherlands | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Japan | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Tunisia | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Iran | G | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| New Zealand | G | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Uruguay | H | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Saudi Arabia | H | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Cape Verde | H | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Senegal | I | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Austria | J | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Algeria | J | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Jordan | J | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Uzbekistan | K | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Croatia | L | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Ghana | L | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Panama | L | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Türkiye | D | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Sweden | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Czechia | A | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Iraq | I | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| DR Congo | K | — | — | 0.0% | — |
Kalshi and Polymarket prices come from the latest market snapshot; model figures from the 10,000-run simulation. DraftKings is omitted. Informational only — verify resolution terms and liquidity before taking a position.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: World Cup →
Where the two exchanges disagree on the 2026 champion
All 48 Team Profiles →
Searchable profiles with edges and tactical analysis
Group Stage Draw →
All 12 groups with team breakdowns and qualification paths
Knockout Bracket →
Round of 32 through the Final — every locked tie with a model prediction
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Expert World Cup analysis from our intelligence team
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