Iraq
FIFA World Cup 2026 — Betting Profile
Live Kalshi · updated Jun 1, 7:00 AM UTC
Playing Style
Iraq qualified via the FIFA Intercontinental Playoff, beating Bolivia 2-1 in Mexico City. Ali Al-Hammadi scored the qualifier-winning goal. Iraq are a compact, disciplined side from the AFC — physical and well-organized defensively, limited in possession. Their group — France, Senegal, Norway — is brutal. France are among the tournament favorites. Iraq's mission is avoiding a heavy goal differential loss while remaining competitive in all three matches. Their Asian football DNA means low-scoring, hard-to-play-against football. Totals: UNDER across the board.
Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Ali Al-Hammadi | 18 |
| Mohanad Ali | 27 |
| Aymen Hussein | 15 |
Ali Al-Hammadi — Al Ain (UAE). PK taker. Scored the qualifier-winning goal vs Bolivia. Iraq's main attacker and set piece specialist.
Mohanad Ali — Dibba Al-Fujairah. Iraq's all-time scoring leader with 27 international goals. The captain and experienced forward who leads the line.
Aymen Hussein — Al-Zawra'a (Iraq). Hard-working second striker. Contributes goals from wide positions and on counterattacks.
Set Piece Roles
Ali Al-Hammadi
Ali Al-Hammadi
Ali Al-Hammadi (delivery) / Mohanad Ali, Rebin Sulaka (targets)
Tactical Breakdown
Iraq should not be dismissed — they earned their place through a playoff and are defensively organized. But Group I is a nightmare draw. France are +400 tournament favorites. Senegal are a serious side. Norway with Haaland might be their only chance to steal a point. The primary betting angle on Iraq is their defensive resilience in individual matches — can they keep Norway's total under 3? Can they steal a goal against Senegal? This is a survival group for Iraq, not an advancement opportunity.
Shot Creators & Assisters
Dibba Al-Fujairah. Iraq's most experienced attacker. 27 international goals. Leads the line physically and provides a target in the box.
Al Ain. PK taker. The most technically skilled player in this squad. Clinical in tight spaces and on dead balls.
Al-Shorta. Shields the defense and keeps possession in Iraq's own half. Critical for making it hard for France and Norway to press effectively.
Set Piece Aerial Targets
Swedish-Iraqi international. Physical CB on loan in Europe. Iraq's best aerial option at both ends of the pitch.
Strong in the air for a striker. Iraq's most consistent aerial threat in the opposition box.
10K Simulation Projections
10,000-iteration Monte Carlo. Tournament-wide simulation reads market priors, then plays the bracket out from group stage through the final, with penalty shootout variance baked in.
Champion
0.0%
0
Reach Final
0.0%
0
Reach SF
0.1%
+99900
Reach QF
0.3%
+33233
Reach R16
1.7%
+5782
Advance from Group
7.9%
+1166
Sim vs Market — Champion
Sim
0.0%
Market (Kalshi)
1¢
Edge
—
Group I Standings
Match Schedule
All three of Iraq’s group-stage matches. Click any row for the full match prediction, sim probabilities, and live Kalshi pricing.
Apply the Edge — PMP Tools
Use these tools to size your Iraq bets and find hidden value.
10,000 Simulations
See Iraq's full simulation data — win probability, advancement odds, and round-by-round projections — in our Pro analysis.
Market Edges — Pro
These edges are based on public data, odds analysis, and historical base rates. Do your own research. Past performance ≠ future results.
Iraq vs Norway — under 3.5 goals. Iraq defend compactly and will park the bus. Haaland will get chances but Iraq's low-block is hard to break. Norway don't score 4 against organized defenses.
💡 Iraq's qualifying record: conceded only 14 in 12 matches. They are hard to score against in quantity.
Mohanad Ali to score in the tournament at long odds. Iraq's 27-goal all-time scorer is motivated on the biggest stage. If Iraq get a set piece in any match, he's their best bet.
💡 Long shot bet — Iraq will have limited chances in Group I. But Mohanad Ali takes his chances when they come.
Edges updated as odds and squad news change. Check back closer to kickoff for final positioning.
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