Kalshi vs Polymarket — World Cup Price Gaps
Kalshi and Polymarket both run a deep 2026 World Cup outright-winner market right now — all 48 teams, tens of millions in volume. The champion board below compares both exchanges side by side against our 10,000-run model. Per-match cross-exchange gaps fill in underneath as the group stage (opens June 11) lists out.
World Cup 2026 Champion Odds — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Model
Implied probability to win the 2026 World Cup on each exchange, beside The 7 Oracles 10,000-run model. Kalshi is tradeable for US readers; Polymarket is shown for reference (it is geoblocked for US traders). The gap is the difference between the two exchanges, in percentage points.
| Team | Grp | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | H | 58% | 58% | 24.5% | 0pp |
| England | L | 24% | 23% | 16.1% | 1pp |
| France | I | 23% | 1% | 36.6% | 22pp |
| Argentina | J | 20% | 20% | 22.8% | 0pp |
| Brazil | C | 7% | 1% | 0.0% | 6pp |
| Norway | I | 7% | 1% | 0.0% | 6pp |
| Portugal | K | 7% | 1% | 0.0% | 6pp |
| Mexico | A | 6% | 1% | 0.0% | 5pp |
| Morocco | C | 4% | 1% | 0.0% | 3pp |
| Colombia | K | 4% | 1% | 0.0% | 3pp |
| Belgium | G | 3% | 1% | 0.0% | 2pp |
| Switzerland | B | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | 1pp |
| Canada | B | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Paraguay | D | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Australia | D | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Ecuador | E | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Egypt | G | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | 0pp |
| Cape Verde | H | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | 0pp |
| Senegal | I | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | 0pp |
| Austria | J | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Algeria | J | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Croatia | L | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Ghana | L | — | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| DR Congo | K | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | 0pp |
| Korea Republic | A | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| South Africa | A | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Qatar | B | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Scotland | C | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Haiti | C | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Germany | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Curaçao | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Côte d'Ivoire | E | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Netherlands | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Japan | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Tunisia | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Iran | G | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| New Zealand | G | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Uruguay | H | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Saudi Arabia | H | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Jordan | J | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Uzbekistan | K | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Panama | L | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Türkiye | D | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Sweden | F | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Czechia | A | — | — | 0.0% | — |
| Iraq | I | — | — | 0.0% | — |
Kalshi and Polymarket prices come from the latest market snapshot; model figures from the 10,000-run simulation. DraftKings is omitted. Informational only — verify resolution terms and liquidity before taking a position.
Live World Cup Price Gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Updated Jul 15, 1:15 AM ETWhere Kalshi and Polymarket price the same game differently right now. Two exchanges disagreeing on the same outcome is a genuine cross-exchange gap — unlike a sportsbook line, which bakes in vig (the house edge). A de-vigged sportsbook consensus is shown as a sharp reference: when one exchange hugs it and the other sits far off, the gap is that one venue being stale — not a true two-price arb.
Gaps are the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by symmetric KL divergence. Polymarket prices come from the latest hourly snapshot; Kalshi prices are live. Sportsbook prices are de-vigged for a fair comparison. Informational only — verify resolution terms before trading.
How we compute the gap
For each World Cupgame listed on both exchanges, we take Kalshi's live implied probability and Polymarket's latest snapshot probability for the same team, then measure how far apart they are. Games are ranked by symmetric KL divergence — a measure of how much the two price distributions disagree — and we surface the biggest gaps first. A “gap” here is the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges, in percentage points.
A cross-exchange gap is not the same as a sportsbook edge. Two exchanges disagreeing is a genuine signal; a sportsbook line sitting wider is mostly vig — the house margin baked into both sides. That's why we lead with the Kalshi–Polymarket comparison and show the book only for reference. Informational only — always verify resolution terms and liquidity before taking a position.
World Cup: Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQ
Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for the World Cup?
On the outright winner the two exchanges sit close — the champion board above shows the gap team by team. When they diverge, the cheaper venue for a team is whichever prices that outcome lower. Neither exchange charges vig, so the gap is the real cross-exchange difference, not a house margin.
Who is the World Cup 2026 favorite on Polymarket?
Spain and France trade as the joint favorites on Polymarket, both around 16% to win, with England next near 11% — closely matching Kalshi and our model. The full team-by-team board is above.
Can US users trade the World Cup on Polymarket?
No — Polymarket is geoblocked for US traders. We show its prices for reference because it is one of the deepest World Cup books in the world, but US readers take the Kalshi side, which is the only trade link on this page.
When do per-match World Cup gaps appear?
The 2026 group stage opens June 11. Per-match markets fill in as games approach; before then the per-match table can be thin even while the outright champion board above is fully live.