Netherlands
FIFA World Cup 2026 — Betting Profile
Live Kalshi · updated Jun 24, 5:00 PM UTC
Playing Style
Ronald Koeman's Netherlands play a physical 4-3-3 that defends compactly and attacks with pace on the wings. Van Dijk organizes the backline. Gakpo and Reijnders provide creativity. This team lacks the flair of historic Dutch squads but compensates with organization and physicality.
Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo | 19 |
| Donyell Malen | 15 |
| Memphis Depay | 14 |
Cody Gakpo — Liverpool. Left wing. Technical, two-footed. Scored 3 goals at the 2022 WC.
Donyell Malen — Roma (on loan from Aston Villa). Pace merchant. Right wing. In strong form — braces vs. Cagliari and Napoli in Feb 2026.
Memphis Depay — Corinthians. Netherlands' all-time top scorer. Still the focal point in the final third — creates, finishes, and takes set pieces.
Set Piece Roles
Cody Gakpo
Memphis Depay (returned from a hamstring issue as a 70' sub vs Japan; Gakpo / Reijnders cover when he doesn't start)
Memphis Depay / Cody Gakpo
Tactical Breakdown
Netherlands are the tournament's 'danger team' — not outright favorites but capable of beating anyone on a given day. They reached the 2022 QF and lost to Argentina on PKs in a classic. Van Dijk in the center of defense is world-class. Injury picture for the Japan opener (MD1): Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten are both out for the tournament with ACL injuries; Memphis Depay is managing a hamstring and is a doubt to start, with Wout Weghorst expected to lead the line as a target man; Matthijs de Ligt is not fully fit. The good news — Frenkie de Jong is fit and expected to start, so the midfield (De Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders) is at full strength, not in doubt. Probable XI vs Japan (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van de Ven, Van Dijk (c), Ake; Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders; Malen, Weghorst, Gakpo. Japan is the classic trap game — they beat Germany and Spain in 2022 and beat Brazil and England in 2025-26 friendlies — but they are missing first-choice winger Kaoru Mitoma here. MD1 RESULT (Jun 14, vs Japan, 2-2 draw): took the lead twice (Van Dijk 51' off a Gravenberch cross; sub Summerville 64', Gravenberch's 2nd assist) but conceded a 57' Nakamura strike and an 89' Kamada header from a Junya Ito corner — a clear set-piece-defending weakness despite Van Dijk/van de Ven's aerial size. Depay (hamstring) came off the bench at 70'; Gakpo started and blanked; Weghorst unused. Corners on the night were taken by Reijnders and Depay, not just the listed pair. 1 point, must tighten set pieces vs Sweden/Tunisia.
Shot Creators & Assisters
Liverpool's left-sided threat. Strong, technical, finds the net in big moments.
Barcelona. Dictates tempo from deep, press-resistant, and the metronome of the Dutch midfield.
AC Milan. Underrated. Makes runs into the box. Scores from distance.
Set Piece Aerial Targets
Liverpool captain. 6'4". Bombs forward on late corners. 12 NT goals from set pieces.
Tottenham CB. Quick and strong — attacks set pieces and is a real aerial threat in the box.
10K Simulation Projections
10,000-iteration Monte Carlo. Tournament-wide simulation reads market priors, then plays the bracket out from group stage through the final, with penalty shootout variance baked in.
Champion
6.9%
+1349
Reach Final
13.2%
+658
Reach SF
24.2%
+313
Reach QF
41.3%
+142
Reach R16
66.6%
-199
Advance from Group
100.0%
0
Sim vs Market — Champion
Sim
6.9%
Market (Kalshi)
6¢
Edge
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Group F Standings
Match Schedule
All three of Netherlands’s group-stage matches. Click any row for the full match prediction, sim probabilities, and live Kalshi pricing.
Apply the Edge — PMP Tools
Use these tools to size your Netherlands positions and find hidden value.
10,000 Simulations
See Netherlands's full simulation data — win probability, advancement odds, and round-by-round projections — in our Pro analysis.
Market Edges — Pro
These edges are based on public data, odds analysis, and historical base rates. Do your own research. Past performance ≠ future results.
Netherlands to top Group F is underpriced. Japan is dangerous but Netherlands have the better squad depth. Tunisia and Sweden are both manageable, though Sweden's attack is the real test.
💡 Group winner markets often have better odds than 'to advance'. Shop both.
Van Dijk anytime scorer from set pieces in group stage is recurring +EV. He scores from corners more than any other CB in world football.
💡 Look for corner-kick prop markets if available on Kalshi or Polymarket.
Netherlands vs. Japan (MD1) is the trap game, but the matchup tilts Dutch: Japan are without Mitoma, and Netherlands keep Frenkie de Jong. Wout Weghorst anytime scorer is the under-the-radar angle — he is the probable starting target man against a Japan back three. Van Dijk anytime (set pieces) also live.
💡 Japan have kept clean sheets vs Scotland and England recently, so an under-2.5 lean is defensible — but the value is on a Dutch scorer, not the total. Monitor betting volume on Japan pre-match.
Edges updated as odds and squad news change. Check back closer to kickoff for final positioning.
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