Paraguay
FIFA World Cup 2026 — Betting Profile
Playing Style
Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro are compact, physical, and dangerous from dead balls — exactly the formula that punches above weight at World Cups. Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United) is the engine: pressing, passing, scoring from distance. Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese) is the old-school No. 9 who wins aerial duels and holds the line. Alfaro had Ecuador over-achieving at WC 2022 — he knows exactly how to get a mid-tier CONMEBOL side to perform. Group D with USA and Australia is wide open. Paraguay are legitimate second-place contenders and a push to the Round of 16. Totals: UNDER — Alfaro's systems are built to control and grind.
Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Miguel Almiron | 24 |
| Antonio Sanabria | 16 |
| Ramón Sosa | 10 |
Miguel Almiron — Atlanta United (returned from Newcastle in 2025). The most underrated player at this World Cup. In the Premier League in 2024/25 Almiron covered more ground per game than any midfielder. Goals, assists, pressing, long shots — he does everything.
Antonio Sanabria — Cremonese. Classic South American No. 9. Physical, aerial, technically decent. Scores from crosses and set pieces. Alfaro builds attacks around his hold-up play.
Ramón Sosa — Nottingham Forest. Energetic left winger who cuts inside. Broke out at Talleres in Argentina before moving to the Premier League. Direct and hard-working.
Set Piece Roles
Miguel Almiron
Miguel Almiron / Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso (delivery) / Antonio Sanabria, Gustavo Gómez (aerial targets)
Tactical Breakdown
Alfaro turned Ecuador into dark horses at WC 2022 by doing exactly this: compact shape, fast transitions, clinical finishing, set piece goals. Paraguay are better technically than that Ecuador side. Almiron at 30 is the best player Alfaro has ever had. Group D — USA have home support but are fallible in defense, Australia are direct and physical. Paraguay should win one game and draw another. The over/under on their games is one of the clearest bets: Alfaro teams play 1-0, 1-1, 2-1. Never 3-2 or 4-3.
Shot Creators & Assisters
Atlanta United (ex-Newcastle). 30 years old, peak World Cup age. Distance covered, press intensity, late runs into the box — Almiron is the complete midfielder. Premier League fans saw it: he is world-class in this role.
Cremonese. Hold-up striker who makes Paraguay functional going forward. Wins aerial balls, links play, and scores when it counts. His relationship with Almiron off set pieces is practiced and dangerous.
Brighton. Technical creator who provides the final ball and shoots from range. Paraguay's most naturally gifted attacker.
Set Piece Aerial Targets
6'1". The first target at every corner and free kick. Alfaro drilled set piece routines obsessively at Ecuador — expect the same here.
Palmeiras. Captain and defensive leader. Attacks corners at the back post. Has scored crucial headers for Paraguay in qualifying.
10K Simulation Projections
10,000-iteration Monte Carlo. Tournament-wide simulation reads market priors, then plays the bracket out from group stage through the final, with penalty shootout variance baked in.
Champion
0.1%
+99900
Reach Final
0.5%
+19900
Reach SF
2.2%
+4445
Reach QF
8.7%
+1049
Reach R16
31.2%
+221
Advance from Group
99.9%
-99900
Sim vs Market — Champion
Sim
0.1%
Market (Polymarket)
1¢
Edge
—
Group D Standings
Group D standings — live, updated after each completed match.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| United States | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Match Schedule
All three of Paraguay’s group-stage matches. Click any row for the full match prediction, sim probabilities, and live Kalshi pricing.
Apply the Edge — PMP Tools
Use these tools to size your Paraguay positions and find hidden value.
10,000 Simulations
See Paraguay's full simulation data — win probability, advancement odds, and round-by-round projections — in our Pro analysis.
Market Edges — Pro
These edges are based on public data, odds analysis, and historical base rates. Do your own research. Past performance ≠ future results.
Paraguay to advance from Group D at +200 or better. They are clearly the second-best team after USA. Australia are inferior in technical quality. Alfaro knows how to win at World Cups.
💡 Alfaro took Ecuador from 3rd to 2nd place in Group A at WC 2022. Paraguay has better players than that Ecuador squad.
Miguel Almiron to register 2+ assists in group stage at +180 or better. He creates from everywhere. In a three-game group, he creates 4-6 chances per game. The assists accumulate.
💡 Almiron: 7 Premier League assists in 2024/25. He plays the same style at international level.
Paraguay Under 2 goals conceded across the entire group stage. Alfaro's defense is organized and physical. Gustavo Gómez at centre-back is world class.
💡 Alfaro: 7 of 12 CONMEBOL qualifiers allowed 1 or fewer goals. Paraguay defensive record in qualifying was best of the non-top-4 teams.
Edges updated as odds and squad news change. Check back closer to kickoff for final positioning.
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