Can Michael Jackson get a No. 1 hit this month from his biopic bump?
May 6, 2026 · 4:02 · The 7 Oracles · Dane Martinez
What’s in this video
Dane Martinez looks at the Kalshi market on whether Michael Jackson will land a global No. 1 hit on Spotify this month and argues the No side, priced at 40%, is undervalued. He notes Jackson's biopic already drove Billy Jean to number nine before cooling off, and with new releases from artists like Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, BTS, Drake and Ariana Grande competing for the top spot, he sees little chance of a Jackson track reaching number one. He recommends taking the No position now, before the market price shifts.
Key points
- The market in question asks who will have a global No. 1 hit on Spotify this month, with No on Michael Jackson trading at 40%.
- Dane says the biopic Michael already produced its streaming bump, pushing Billy Jean to number nine before it cooled into the 50s and 60s.
- He compares this to other biopics like Bohemian Rhapsody, which boosted streams but didn't push songs to Spotify's Global No. 1.
- Jackson's catalog is spread across many songs, making it harder for one track to consolidate enough streams to hit number one.
- Competition this month from Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, BTS, Drake and Ariana Grande adds to the case against a Jackson No. 1.
- Dane frames the No position at 40% as nearly doubling money and suggests entering before the price moves as the month progresses.
Full transcript
What's up traders? You know what it is. It is once again time to build your portfolio with another profitable prophecy here from the Seven Oracles. I'm your host and statistician Dane Martinez and we continue to find ways to break the bank over at Gouchy with the Seven Oracles. And by the way, if you haven't already, go on over to the sevenoracles.com. We've got great content. Sign up for the free newsletter. And if you want to get full access, you need to go pro and we are giving you a great deal. Sign up now and use the promo code the seven oracles and you will get not one, not two, but six free months to click around and find out and absolutely break the bank. I mean 6 months get you past the World Cup. 6 months even get you past the election cycle where you can really do some damage with our tools. But let's get to the pick of the day. Right now, what I am looking at is the market of who will have a number one global hit on Spotify this month. And there are some heavy hitters out there that are dropping new stuff and have new music out there. People like Olivia Rodrigo, people like BTS, Taylor Swift, Drake, and others. Ariana Grande for example. So to me, it is curious and I think there is an edge on Michael Jackson, right? You can actually get the no on Michael Jackson at 40%. Which means if you bet the no and he does not have a number one hit on Spotify this month, you get about 2.3 times your money. Now, let's look into it. Obviously, Michael Jackson is one of the largest streaming artists of all time. There have been hits like Billy Jean and Thriller that are consistently doing numbers, but those still usually fall way short of number one. You might be saying, "But wait a second. Wasn't the movie just come out? The Michael movie, the biopic, didn't it just come out?" Yes. But the problem is he already got that bump from the movie and it was not enough to take any of his songs to number one. The movie Michael came out in late April, right? And right after the release of that movie, Billy Jean did go all the way up to number nine. It was not enough to get to number one. And after its peak at number nine, it has already kind of cooled off and is now sitting in the 50s, the 60s, right? So, if the immediate spike after the release of the movie wasn't enough, it's going to take something like a viral Tik Tok trend or something like that along with the movie to go ahead. And some of these biopics, yes, get a spike, but Billy Gene only got up to nine. Even like Bohemian Raps City, for example, really did boost streams, but not all the way to the Spotify Global number one. You put it all together and I think the bump, if any, has already happened. And also, when you think about his catalog, right, it's so spread out. So, it's not like one single viral hit is going to go all the way to number one. And like I said, with BTS, Olivia Rodrigo, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, Drake, and others dropping stuff in this month, I think it is a far cry and a long shot for Michael Jackson to get all the way up to number one. So, what you need to do is bet the no at 40% and almost double your money. The oracle has spoken. Go and get it now before the numbers move. Every day in the month when it keeps going, there is a less and less chance it's going to happen and that market is going to get less and less profitable for you. And remember, go on over to the sevenoracles.com. We have great content, podcasts, videos, a free newsletter that will hit your inbox to really give you the edge on these prediction markets. And you can take advantage of all of our tools by going pro and subscribing at the website. Come and join us and get down with the prediction Illuminati.
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