Lions vs Bills player props — Kalshi prices vs the books

Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 2. Game preview and model line →

Kalshi as of Sep 17, 12:00 PM ET · books as of Sep 17, 11:15 AM ET · 264 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 210 with a real two-sided book · 24 priced against 3+ books · widest gap: Isaac TeSlaa 2+ rec, Kalshi 6¢ above consensus

This week on the boardNFL Week 2 predictions →Week 3 predictions →

Oracle calls for this game

Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.

plays only

NFL player prop edges — our projection against each Kalshi contract (X or more), on the strike closest to our projection. The call is YES or NO on that contract, the market price is the price of the called side, and the edge is stated on the called side. Rows badged WATCH are not plays; rows badged SKEW are calls where the average projection sits on the other side of the threshold.
Player	Contract	Matchup	Call	Our proj	Our odds	Mkt	Edge	Tier	Trade
Dalton KincaidTE	50+ rec ydsover 49.5	BUF vs DET	NO	49.5	60%	47¢	+12.9 pp	STRONG	Buy NO →
Josh AllenQBWatch	2+ pass TDsover 1.5	BUF vs DET	NOSkew	1.6	53%	39¢	+13.0 pp	MODERATE	Buy NO →
Josh AllenQBWatch	25+ rush ydsover 24.5	BUF vs DET	NOSkew	24.6	56%	36¢	+19.6 pp	MODERATE	Buy NO →
Dalton KincaidTEWatch	4+ receptionsover 3.5	BUF vs DET	NOSkew	3.8	52%	40¢	+11.3 pp	MODERATE	Buy NO →
Josh PalmerWRWatch	2+ receptionsover 1.5	BUF vs DET	YES	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	MODERATE	Buy YES →
Khalil ShakirWRWatch	5+ receptionsover 4.5	BUF vs DET	YES	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	MODERATE	Buy YES →
Dawson KnoxTEWatch	2+ receptionsover 1.5	BUF vs DET	YES	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	MODERATE	Buy YES →
James CookRBWatch	15+ rec ydsover 14.5	BUF vs DET	NO	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	MODERATE	Buy NO →
James CookRBWatch	50+ rush ydsover 49.5	BUF vs DET	NO	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	MODERATE	Buy NO →
Jahmyr GibbsRBWatch	15+ rec ydsover 14.5	DET vs BUF	YES	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	Pro subscribers only	MODERATE	Buy YES →

10 of 10 props · 6 locked (Pro)

Skew — our projection is an average, and on a right-skewed stat a few big games can pull it past a threshold most games never reach. The call comes from the full distribution, not the average; the badge says the two disagree. Never the top call.

Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.

Prop market board — Lions vs Bills

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Every Kalshi NFL player-prop strike with a two-sided book this week: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus probability read at that strike, exchange quotes at the same strike, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Player	Prop	Game	Kalshi	Consensus	Gap	Novig	ProphetX	Best price	Our P(over)	Trade
DJ MooreBUF v DET	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	66.5¢	51.1%2bk	+15.4¢	o -264 / u -223	o -300 / u -260	over · Kalshi 69.5¢under · Kalshi 36.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	61.5¢	53.4%2bk	+8.1¢	o -186	o -210 / u -260	over · DK 63.2¢under · Kalshi 40.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Sam LaPortaDET v BUF	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	64.0¢	56.6%2bk	+7.4¢	o -233 / u +147	o -255 / u -260	over · DK 66.4¢under · Kalshi 38.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUFarb	2+ rec	DET @ BUF	51.5¢	45.1%6bk	+6.4¢gap	o +125 / u -130	o +112 / u -127	over · Novig 44.4¢under · Kalshi 50.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Khalil ShakirBUF v DET	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	62.5¢	56.6%2bk	+5.9¢	o -233 / u -223	o -220 / u +146	over · Kalshi 65.6¢under · Kalshi 40.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	80+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	60.5¢	55.1%2bk	+5.4¢	o -147 / u +100	o -162 / u +105	over · FD 59.3¢under · Kalshi 41.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	5+ rec	DET @ BUF	36.0¢	40.6%4bk	-4.6¢	o +144 / u -178	o +128 / u -205	over · Kalshi 38.6¢under · Novig 64¢	—	Kalshi →
Jameson WilliamsDET v BUF	5+ rec	DET @ BUF	39.5¢	42.5%5bk	-3.0¢	o +133 / u -141	o +146 / u -164	over · ProphetX 40.7¢under · Novig 58.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Jameson WilliamsDET v BUF	6+ rec	DET @ BUF	23.0¢	25.5%2bk	-2.5¢	o +223 / u -567	o +290 / u -390	over · Kalshi 25.3¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Dawson KnoxBUF v DET	15+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	44.5¢	46.8%2bk	-2.3¢	—	o +104 / u -160	over · Kalshi 46.7¢under · BetRivers 54.5¢	—	Kalshi →
James Cook IIIBUF v DET	80+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	48.5¢	50.7%4bk	-2.2¢	o -108 / u -111	o -112 / u -104	over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · ProphetX 51¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	90+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	48.0¢	49.9%4bk	-1.9¢	o +102 / u -257	o -104	over · Novig 49.5¢under · Kalshi 54.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Jared GoffDET v BUF	275+ pass yds	DET @ BUF	40.5¢	42.3%2bk	-1.8¢	o +120 / u -456	—	over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · Kalshi 61.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Joshua PalmerBUF v DET	2+ rec	DET @ BUF	33.5¢	35.3%6bk	-1.8¢	o +186 / u -199	o +180 / u -200	over · Novig 35¢under · Novig 66.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	30+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	51.5¢	50.0%5bk	+1.5¢	—	o -127 / u +106	over · BetRivers 52.4¢under · ProphetX 48.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	5+ rec	DET @ BUF	41.5¢	42.9%6bk	-1.4¢	o +133 / u -138	o +127 / u -138	over · Novig 42.9¢under · Novig 58¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	59.5¢	58.2%6bk	+1.3¢	o -144 / u +138	o -154 / u +140	over · Novig 59¢under · ProphetX 41.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Khalil ShakirBUF v DET	5+ rec	DET @ BUF	42.5¢	43.8%6bk	-1.3¢	o +130 / u -133	o +121 / u -140	over · Novig 43.5¢under · Novig 57.1¢	—	Kalshi →
Jameson WilliamsDET v BUF	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	58.5¢	57.3%5bk	+1.2¢	o -167 / u +150	o -150 / u +136	over · ProphetX 60¢under · Novig 40¢	—	Kalshi →
James Cook IIIBUF v DET	3+ rec	DET @ BUF	45.5¢	46.6%5bk	-1.1¢	o +111 / u -122	o +107 / u -124	over · Novig 47.4¢under · Novig 55¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	83.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -1550	over · Kalshi 85.9¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	50+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	77.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -520	over · Kalshi 80.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	60+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	68.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -280	over · Kalshi 71.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	70+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	56.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -182	over · Kalshi 58.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	90+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	39.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +134	over · Kalshi 41.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	100+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	30.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +194	over · Kalshi 32.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	110+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	23.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +270	over · Kalshi 25.3¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	120+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	19.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +290	over · BetRivers 20.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	130+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	13.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +390	over · Kalshi 15.9¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	140+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	9.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +510	over · Kalshi 11.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	150+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	8.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +910	over · Kalshi 9.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	160+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	8.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	—	over · DK 7.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	90.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	u -900	—	over · Kalshi 92.5¢under · Kalshi 12.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	5+ rec	DET @ BUF	83.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -852 / u +156	o -850	over · DK 85.3¢under · Kalshi 19¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	6+ rec	DET @ BUF	73.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -365 / u +170	o -380	over · DK 75¢under · Kalshi 29.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	7+ rec	DET @ BUF	60.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -199 / u +138	o -198	over · DK 63¢under · Novig 42¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	9+ rec	DET @ BUF	33.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +156	o +152	over · Kalshi 37.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	10+ rec	DET @ BUF	24.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +245	o +250	over · BetRivers 27¢	—	Kalshi →
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET v BUF	11+ rec	DET @ BUF	14.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +376	o +390	over · Kalshi 18¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	25+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	78.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -660	over · Kalshi 80.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	62.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -230	over · DK 65.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	60+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	40.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +123 / u -172	over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · Kalshi 61.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	70+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	31.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +186	over · Kalshi 33.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	80+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	22.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +270	over · BetRivers 25¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	90+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	15.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +400	over · Kalshi 18¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	100+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	10.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +620	over · Kalshi 11.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	2+ rec	DET @ BUF	89.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -1567	o -3200	over · Kalshi 91.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	3+ rec	DET @ BUF	76.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -441 / u +122	o -455	over · Kalshi 79.2¢under · Kalshi 27.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	6+ rec	DET @ BUF	22.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +257 / u -900	o +260	over · BetRivers 25¢under · Kalshi 80.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Dalton KincaidBUF v DET	7+ rec	DET @ BUF	11.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +488	o +490	over · BetRivers 13.3¢	—	Kalshi →
Dawson KnoxBUF v DET	25+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	25.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +245	over · Kalshi 28.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Dawson KnoxBUF v DET	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	9.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +620	over · Kalshi 11.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Dawson KnoxBUF v DET	50+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	6.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +650	over · ESPN Bet 8.3¢	—	Kalshi →
Dawson KnoxBUF v DET	3+ rec	DET @ BUF	17.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +355 / u -1150	o +355	over · BetRivers 19.6¢under · Kalshi 85.9¢	—	Kalshi →
Dawson KnoxBUF v DET	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	6.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +852	o +860	over · BetRivers 7.1¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	25+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	87.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -1900	over · DK 89.6¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	72.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -425	over · DK 76¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	50+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	63.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -220	over · DK 66¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	70+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	41.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +117	over · Kalshi 43.7¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	80+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	33.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +170	over · Kalshi 35.6¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	90+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	25.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +235	over · Kalshi 27.4¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	100+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	18.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +340	over · Kalshi 21.1¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	110+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	12.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +460	over · Kalshi 14.8¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	120+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	10.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	—	over · DK 11.8¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	3+ rec	DET @ BUF	82.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -700 / u +122	o -1000	over · Kalshi 85.9¢under · Kalshi 21.1¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	6+ rec	DET @ BUF	33.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +178 / u -456	o +170	over · DK 35.1¢under · Kalshi 69.5¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	7+ rec	DET @ BUF	20.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +317	o +320	over · DK 21.3¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	8+ rec	DET @ BUF	10.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +614	o +570	over · DK 12.3¢	—	Kalshi →
DJ MooreBUF v DET	9+ rec	DET @ BUF	7.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +900	o +900	over · DK 7.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	15+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	53.5¢	52.5%4bk	+1.0¢	—	o -138 / u +110	over · DK 54.3¢under · ProphetX 47.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	25+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	35.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +150 / u -186	over · FD 37.3¢under · ProphetX 65¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	18.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +340	over · Kalshi 20.1¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	50+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	11.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +540	over · Kalshi 12.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	60+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	6.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +830	over · Kalshi 8.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	3+ rec	DET @ BUF	23.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +292 / u -1150	o +310	over · FD 21.7¢under · Kalshi 80.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Isaac TeSlaaDET v BUF	4+ rec	DET @ BUF	11.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +669	o +830	over · BetRivers 8.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	15+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	76.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -610	over · Kalshi 79.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	25+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	61.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -194	over · DK 62.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	33.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +164	over · BetRivers 35.1¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	50+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	21.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +285	over · BetRivers 22.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	60+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	12.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +490	over · DK 13.9¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	70+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	9.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +740	over · DK 8.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	80+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	5.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +1200	over · DK 5.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	2+ rec	DET @ BUF	86.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	—	over · Kalshi 89.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	3+ rec	DET @ BUF	76.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -471 / u +156	o -520	over · Kalshi 80.2¢under · Kalshi 27.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	6+ rec	DET @ BUF	28.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +199 / u -809	o +196	over · DK 28.7¢under · Kalshi 75.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	7+ rec	DET @ BUF	16.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +355 / u -1567	o +360	over · DK 17¢under · Kalshi 86.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	9+ rec	DET @ BUF	5.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +953	o +900	over · DK 5.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	50+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	81.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -567 / u +156	o -800	over · DK 82.6¢under · Kalshi 20.1¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	60+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	74.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -335 / u +223	o -425	over · DK 75.6¢under · Kalshi 28.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	70+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	66.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -239 / u -144	o -255	over · DK 67.9¢under · Kalshi 35.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	100+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	37.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +144 / u -376	o +136	over · Kalshi 39.7¢under · Kalshi 64.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	110+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	30.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +199 / u -809	o +190	over · Kalshi 32.5¢under · Kalshi 71.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	120+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	23.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +208	—	over · Kalshi 26.3¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	130+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	16.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +285	—	over · Kalshi 18¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	140+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	14.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +365	—	over · Fanatics 16¢	—	Kalshi →
Jahmyr GibbsDET v BUF	150+ rush yds	DET @ BUF	11.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +669	o +620	over · Kalshi 12.7¢	—	Kalshi →
James Cook IIIBUF v DET	15+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	57.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o -170	over · Kalshi 59.7¢	—	Kalshi →
James Cook IIIBUF v DET	25+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	34.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +164	over · Kalshi 37.6¢	—	Kalshi →
James Cook IIIBUF v DET	40+ rec yds	DET @ BUF	14.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	—	o +430	over · Kalshi 15.9¢	—	Kalshi →

210 of 210 two-sided strikes · showing 100 · + 54 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · book consensus as of Sep 17, 11:15 AM ET

Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills Every game this week →

How to read this board — and what we are not claiming

Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.

Lions vs Bills props — FAQ

Where are Lions vs Bills player props priced best?

The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.

What is the gap column?

The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.

Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?

Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 210 strikes with a real two-sided book; 54 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.

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MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale