Settles YES when
Each contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT).
4 resolution traps in the KXBTCD rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Bitcoin price Above/belowEach contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT).4 traps
- Strict 'above' β hitting threshold exactly resolves NO β The rules require the average to be above X.99 (e.g. above 77699.99 / 86249.99), so a BRTI average landing exactly on the threshold value fails the condition and resolves NO.
- CF Benchmarks BRTI is the sole data source β Only CF Benchmarks' BRTI is used β no other Bitcoin price feed or exchange price counts, so discrepancies between BRTI and other indices are irrelevant to settlement.
- 60-second average, not a spot print β Settlement uses the simple average of the 60 individual one-second BRTI values immediately before the cut-off, not any single spot price, so a momentary spike or dip through the threshold does not determine the outcome.
- The price at :00 is not the settle β A chart showing bitcoin above the strike at exactly the top of the hour can still settle NO if the 60 one-second prints before it averaged lower. Check the average over the final minute, and the hour named in your contract β every hour is its own event.
KXBTCD contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXBTCD
928
graded
543
won
59.0%
win rate
+$48.93
net
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake β +5.3Β’ per contract across 928. Full method and every graded position on the track record.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Bitcoin price Above/below markets?
Each contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT). That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Bitcoin price Above/below contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strict 'above' β hitting threshold exactly resolves NO β The rules require the average to be above X.99 (e.g. above 77699.99 / 86249.99), so a BRTI average landing exactly on the threshold value fails the condition and resolves NO.
What does the KXBTCD ticker mean?
KXBTCD is Kalshi's series ticker for Bitcoin price Above/below. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Bitcoin price Above/below?
Yes β 928 graded positions on KXBTCD: 543 won, 385 lost, +$48.93 net at one contract per signal (+5.3Β’ per contract).
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.