How Kalshi settles Bitcoin price Above/below
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before the settlement time exceeds the threshold on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps in the KXBTCD rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Bitcoin price Above/belowThe contract resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before the settlement time exceeds the threshold on the settlement date.4 traps
- Strictly above threshold, not equal — The rules require the average to be above the threshold (e.g., above 63249.99), so an average landing exactly on the threshold resolves NO, not YES.
- CF Benchmarks BRTI is the sole data source — Only CF Benchmarks' BRTI is used — not spot prices from any exchange — so discrepancies between BRTI and prices on Coinbase, Binance, etc. are irrelevant to settlement.
- 60-second simple average, not a spot print — Settlement uses the arithmetic mean of 60 individual one-second index values before the cut-off, so a brief spike or dip right at the settlement time does not solely determine the outcome.
- Time zone is EDT, shifts with daylight saving — The cut-off is specified in EDT (Eastern Daylight Time), so traders must confirm whether clocks have changed near the settlement date to avoid misidentifying the exact UTC settlement moment.
KXBTCD contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXBTCD
807
graded
491
won
61.0%
win rate
+$47.88
net
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake — +5.9¢ per contract across 807. Full method and every graded position on the track record.
Go deeper
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Bitcoin price Above/below markets?
The contract resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before the settlement time exceeds the threshold on the settlement date. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Bitcoin price Above/below contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly above threshold, not equal — The rules require the average to be above the threshold (e.g., above 63249.99), so an average landing exactly on the threshold resolves NO, not YES.
What does the KXBTCD ticker mean?
KXBTCD is Kalshi's series ticker for Bitcoin price Above/below. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Bitcoin price Above/below?
Yes — 807 graded positions on KXBTCD: 491 won, 316 lost, +$47.88 net at one contract per signal (+5.9¢ per contract).
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.