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IBIT odds on Kalshi & Polymarket US

As of Nov 12, 2:42 AM ET, Kalshi prices 53% on “Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 73,499.99”; as of Nov 12, 1:57 AM ET, Polymarket US prices 17% on “BTC Price at 2:00AM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $73,400”.PolymarketPartner

IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds bitcoin — the asset these markets price. Prices are the middle of each market's two-sided book; a price is a market reading, not a recommendation.

Our model's read on these strikes: Bitcoin Edge →

Live IBIT markets

Live prediction markets on Bitcoin: market, venue, Yes price, implied chance and close date.
MarketVenueYes priceImpliedCloses
Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 73,499.99Kalshi53¢53%Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 73,999.99Kalshi35¢35%Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 73,749.99Kalshi43¢43%Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 73,249.99Kalshi63¢63%Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 70,999.99Kalshi97¢97%Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 13, 2026: above 73,999.99Kalshi40¢40%Nov 13, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 13, 2026: above 70,999.99Kalshi91¢91%Nov 13, 2026
Bitcoin price on Nov 13, 2026: above 71,999.99Kalshi82¢82%Nov 13, 2026
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 100,000 to 104,999.99Kalshi2¢2%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 105,000 to 109,999.99Kalshi1¢1%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 95,000 to 99,999.99Kalshi3¢3%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 75,000 to 79,999.99Kalshi18¢18%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 50,000 to 54,999.99Kalshi2¢2%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 90,000 to 94,999.99Kalshi5¢5%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 70,000 to 74,999.99Kalshi21¢21%Jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027: 55,000 to 59,999.99Kalshi4¢4%Jan 1, 2027
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $85000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi10¢10%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi18¢18%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi8¢8%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $92500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi2¢2%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $90000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi5¢5%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $95000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi2¢2%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $97500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi2¢2%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi56¢56%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi86¢86%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi11¢11%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi31¢31%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi17¢17%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi5¢5%Nov 30, 2026
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?Kalshi7¢7%Nov 30, 2026
Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?Kalshi13¢13%Jan 1, 2027
Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?Kalshi5¢5%Jan 1, 2027
Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?Kalshi8¢8%Jan 1, 2027
Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?Kalshi5¢5%Jan 1, 2027
BTC Price at 2:00AM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $73,300Polymarket USPolymarketPartner95¢95%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 2:00AM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $73,400Polymarket USPolymarketPartner17¢17%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $67,500Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $67,750Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $68,000Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $69,000Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $69,250Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $69,500Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $69,750Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $70,000Polymarket USPolymarketPartner98¢98%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $70,500Polymarket USPolymarketPartner99¢99%Nov 12, 2026
BTC Price at 5:00PM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $71,750Polymarket USPolymarketPartner93¢93%Nov 12, 2026

Kalshi prices read Nov 12, 2:42 AM ET. Polymarket US prices from our snapshot at Nov 12, 1:57 AM ET. Each venue settles on its own rules; check the contract before you trade.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the IBIT odds on Kalshi?

As of Nov 12, 2:42 AM ET, Kalshi prices 53% on “Bitcoin price on Nov 12, 2026: above 73,499.99”; as of Nov 12, 1:57 AM ET, Polymarket US prices 17% on “BTC Price at 2:00AM ET on Thu, Nov 12: above $73,400”.

What do IBIT prediction markets track?

IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds bitcoin — the asset these markets price. Kalshi lists these on it: KXBTCD, KXBTCY, KXBTCMAXMON, KXBTCMINMON, KXBTCMINY. A Yes contract pays $1 if it happens and $0 if not, so its price in cents reads as the market's chance.

Does Polymarket US have IBIT markets?

Yes. 12 Polymarket US markets on Bitcoin had a two-sided price in our latest snapshot (Nov 12, 1:57 AM ET).

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