Weather Settlement Tracker
What each weather market settles at if the thermometer stops moving — right now, per station, under each venue's own rule. Kalshi and Polymarket US settle on the NWS Climate Report; Polymarket.com settles on the routine hourly METARs. The exact observation that set today's value, the next report countdown, and the strikes the running max has already decided.
Quick Answer
As of 9:29 PM ET, 64 of 64 tracked stations are reporting. Kalshi and Polymarket US settle on the NWS Climate Report (the 1-minute sensor max, whole °F, local standard time day); the running METAR max is a floor on it, and the official high beats that floor on about 60% of station-days, usually by one degree. Polymarket.com settles on the routine-METAR hourly remark, tenths °C rounded half-up to °F for US events. No forecast and no position here — settlement state only.
Same thermometer, two venues
Five stations where Kalshi and Polymarket US settle on the same Climate Report. One floor, two ladders. Polymarket US prices are the venue's own mids from our snapshot table, each with the time it was read.
Chicago (MDW)
Climate day 2026-11-09 · KXHIGHCHIRunning max (floor)
59°F
set 2:53 PM CST
The official high has beaten the hourly max by 1°F+ on 49% of days here and by 2°F+ on 4% (373 station-days, Nov 2025–Nov 2026).
Kalshi ladder · as of 9:29 PM ET
- 59–60°Fno two-sided price open
- 61–62°Fno two-sided price open
- >62°Fno two-sided price open
- 57–58°Fno two-sided price NO locked
- 55–56°Fno two-sided price NO locked
- <55°Fno two-sided price NO locked
Polymarket US buckets · as of 9:26 PM ET
Event 2026-11-09
- 60–61°Fmid 98¢ open
- 62–63°Fmid — open
Los Angeles (LAX)
Climate day 2026-11-09 · KXHIGHLAXRunning max (floor)
82°F
set 12:53 PM PST
The official high has beaten the hourly max by 1°F+ on 65% of days here and by 2°F+ on 15% (373 station-days, Nov 2025–Nov 2026).
Kalshi ladder · as of 9:29 PM ET
- >87°Fno two-sided price open
- 84–85°Fno two-sided price open
- 86–87°Fno two-sided price open
- 82–83°Fno two-sided price open
- 80–81°Fno two-sided price NO locked
- <80°Fno two-sided price NO locked
Polymarket US buckets · as of 9:28 PM ET
Event 2026-11-10
- 79°F or belowmid — open
- 80–81°Fmid 4¢ open
- 82–83°Fmid 21¢ open
- 84–85°Fmid 46¢ open
- 86–87°Fmid 31¢ open
- 88°F or abovemid 6¢ open
Miami (MIA)
Climate day 2026-11-09 · KXHIGHMIARunning max (floor)
82°F
set 3:53 PM EST
The official high has beaten the hourly max by 1°F+ on 63% of days here and by 2°F+ on 16% (372 station-days, Nov 2025–Nov 2026).
Kalshi ladder · as of 9:29 PM ET
- 83–84°Fno two-sided price open
- 85–86°Fno two-sided price open
- 87–88°Fno two-sided price open
- >88°Fno two-sided price open
- 81–82°Fno two-sided price open
- <81°Fno two-sided price NO locked
Polymarket US buckets · as of 9:27 PM ET
Event 2026-11-09 · 81–82°F resolves if nothing changes
- 81–82°Fmid — open
- 83–84°Fmid — open
- 85–86°Fmid — open
New York Central Park (NYC)
Climate day 2026-11-09 · KXHIGHNYRunning max (floor)
57°F
set 3:51 PM EST
The official high has beaten the hourly max by 1°F+ on 53% of days here and by 2°F+ on 7% (373 station-days, Nov 2025–Nov 2026).
Kalshi ladder · as of 9:29 PM ET
- 59–60°Fno two-sided price open
- 57–58°Fno two-sided price open
- <57°Fno two-sided price NO locked
- 61–62°Fno two-sided price open
- >64°Fno two-sided price open
- 63–64°Fno two-sided price open
Polymarket US buckets · as of 9:28 PM ET
Event 2026-11-10
- 57°F or belowmid — open
- 58–59°Fmid 19¢ open
- 60–61°Fmid 53¢ open
- 62–63°Fmid 27¢ open
- 64–65°Fmid 8¢ open
- 66°F or abovemid — open
San Francisco (SFO)
Climate day 2026-11-09 · KXHIGHTSFORunning max (floor)
68°F
set 1:56 PM PST
The official high has beaten the hourly max by 1°F+ on 69% of days here and by 2°F+ on 13% (373 station-days, Nov 2025–Nov 2026).
Kalshi ladder
No open Kalshi ladder read for this day.
Polymarket US buckets · as of 9:18 PM ET
Event 2026-11-09 · 68–69°F resolves if nothing changes
- 68–69°Fmid — open
- 70–71°Fmid — open
- 72–73°Fmid — open
Kalshi daily highs — every station
The running max on the local-standard-time climate day (routine and special reports), the observation that set it, and the station's own record of how far the official high ends up above the hourly max.
| Station | Climate day | Running max | Set by | Official | Market-implied high | Official beats hourly max by 1°F+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago (MDW) | 2026-11-09 | 59°F | 2:53 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 49.3% (373 station-days) |
| Los Angeles (LAX) | 2026-11-09 | 82°F | 12:53 PM PST | pending | — reference read | 64.6% (373 station-days) |
| Miami (MIA) | 2026-11-09 | 82°F | 3:53 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 62.6% (372 station-days) |
| New York Central Park (NYC) | 2026-11-09 | 57°F | 3:51 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 52.9% (373 station-days) |
| San Francisco (SFO) | 2026-11-09 | 68°F | 1:56 PM PST | pending | — reference read | 69.2% (373 station-days) |
| Atlanta (ATL) | 2026-11-09 | 72°F | 3:52 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 66.2% (372 station-days) |
| Austin (AUS) | 2026-11-09 | 64°F | 2:53 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 63.4% (372 station-days) |
| Boston (BOS) | 2026-11-09 | 55°F | 3:54 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 56.9% (371 station-days) |
| Dallas (DFW) | 2026-11-09 | 70°F | 2:53 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 61.4% (373 station-days) |
| Denver (DEN) | 2026-11-09 | 72°F | 2:53 PM MST | pending | — reference read | 66.5% (373 station-days) |
| Houston (HOU) | 2026-11-09 | 62°F | 7:53 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 62.4% (372 station-days) |
| Las Vegas (LAS) | 2026-11-09 | 73°F | 2:56 PM PST | pending | — reference read | 56.6% (373 station-days) |
| Louisville (SDF) | 2026-11-09 | 66°F | 3:56 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 57.4% (373 station-days) |
| Minneapolis (MSP) | 2026-11-09 | 61°F | 2:53 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 51.4% (373 station-days) |
| New Orleans (MSY) | 2026-11-09 | 73°F | 3:53 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 62.3% (373 station-days) |
| Newark (EWR) | 2026-11-09 | 59°F | 3:51 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 54.4% (373 station-days) |
| Oklahoma City (OKC) | 2026-11-09 | 70°F | 2:52 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 58% (373 station-days) |
| Philadelphia (PHL) | 2026-11-09 | 60°F | 3:54 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 55.2% (373 station-days) |
| Phoenix (PHX) | 2026-11-09 | 82°F | 2:51 PM MST | pending | — reference read | 78.2% (372 station-days) |
| San Antonio (SAT) | 2026-11-09 | 63°F | 3:05 PM CST | pending | — reference read | 63.8% (373 station-days) |
| San Diego (SAN) | 2026-11-09 | 83°F | 12:51 PM PST | pending | — reference read | 61.3% (372 station-days) |
| Seattle (SEA) | 2026-11-09 | 55°F | 1:53 PM PST | pending | — reference read | 58.9% (373 station-days) |
| Trenton (TTN) | 2026-11-09 | 58°F | 3:53 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 55.5% (371 station-days) |
| Washington (DCA) | 2026-11-09 | 63°F | 3:52 PM EST | pending | — reference read | 53.3% (368 station-days) |
Polymarket.com — the routine METAR rule
Highest hourly temperature remark of any routine METAR on the station's clock day, tenths °C as reported; a SPECI does not count. US stations in °F (rounded half-up), international stations in whole °C.
Polymarket.com temperature markets: US Users: Featured Contract/Price/Trade Not Available; Informational Use Only.
| Station | Clock day | Value so far | Set by (routine ob) | 00Z 6-hr max | Next routine ob | Routine / special today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles (LAX) | 2026-11-09 | 82°F | 12:53 PM PST · 27.8°C | 86°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 0 |
| Miami (MIA) | 2026-11-09 | 82°F | 3:53 PM EST · 27.8°C | 85°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 0 |
| San Francisco (SFO) | 2026-11-09 | 68°F | 1:56 PM PST · 20.0°C | 72°F | 27 min (:56) | 6 / 1 |
| Atlanta (ATL) | 2026-11-09 | 72°F | 3:52 PM EST · 22.2°C | 74°F | 23 min (:52) | 6 / 0 |
| Austin (AUS) | 2026-11-09 | 64°F | 2:53 PM CST · 17.8°C | 64°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 1 |
| Denver (DEN) | 2026-11-09 | 72°F | 2:53 PM MST · 22.2°C | 72°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 0 |
| Houston (HOU) | 2026-11-09 | 62°F | 7:53 PM CST · 16.7°C | 61°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 0 |
| Seattle (SEA) | 2026-11-09 | 55°F | 1:53 PM PST · 12.8°C | 55°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 3 |
| Amsterdam Schiphol | 2026-11-10 | 2°C | 12:25 AM GMT+1 · 2.0°C | — | 56 min (:25) | 6 / 0 |
| Ankara Esenboğa | 2026-11-10 | -2°C | 12:20 AM GMT+3 · -2.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 10 / 0 |
| Beijing Capital | 2026-11-10 | 8°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 8.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Buenos Aires Ezeiza | 2026-11-09 | 25°C | 6:00 PM GMT-3 · 25.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Busan Gimhae | 2026-11-10 | 13°C | 11:00 AM GMT+9 · 13.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Cape Town | 2026-11-10 | 18°C | 12:00 AM GMT+2 · 18.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 5 / 0 |
| Chengdu Shuangliu | 2026-11-10 | 14°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 14.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Chicago O'Hare (ORD) | 2026-11-09 | 60°F | 2:51 PM CST · 15.6°C | 60°F | 22 min (:51) | 6 / 0 |
| Chongqing Jiangbei | 2026-11-10 | 13°C | 5:00 AM GMT+8 · 13.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Dallas Love Field (DAL) | 2026-11-09 | 71°F | 3:53 PM CST · 21.7°C | 71°F | 24 min (:53) | 6 / 0 |
| Guangzhou Baiyun | 2026-11-10 | 18°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 18.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Helsinki-Vantaa | 2026-11-10 | 5°C | 12:20 AM GMT+2 · 5.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 9 / 0 |
| Hong Kong | 2026-11-10 | 19°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 19.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Istanbul | 2026-11-10 | 10°C | 12:20 AM GMT+3 · 10.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 10 / 0 |
| Jeddah | 2026-11-10 | 28°C | 12:00 AM GMT+3 · 28.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Karachi | 2026-11-10 | 25°C | 1:30 AM GMT+5 · 25.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Kuala Lumpur | 2026-11-10 | 29°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 29.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| London City | 2026-11-10 | 7°C | 12:20 AM GMT · 7.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 4 / 0 |
| Lucknow | 2026-11-10 | 19°C | 2:00 AM GMT+5:30 · 19.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Madrid Barajas | 2026-11-10 | 14°C | 12:00 AM GMT+1 · 14.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 7 / 0 |
| Manila | 2026-11-10 | 29°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 29.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 1 |
| Mexico City | 2026-11-09 | 24°C | 2:45 PM CST · 24.0°C | — | 11 min (:40) | 6 / 1 |
| Milan Malpensa | 2026-11-10 | 8°C | 12:20 AM GMT+1 · 8.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 6 / 0 |
| Moscow Vnukovo | 2026-11-10 | 4°C | 12:00 AM GMT+3 · 4.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 11 / 1 |
| Munich | 2026-11-10 | 5°C | 1:50 AM GMT+1 · 5.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 7 / 0 |
| New York LaGuardia (LGA) | 2026-11-09 | 58°F | 3:51 PM EST · 14.4°C | 59°F | 22 min (:51) | 6 / 0 |
| Paris Le Bourget | 2026-11-10 | 8°C | 12:00 AM GMT+1 · 8.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 7 / 0 |
| Qingdao | 2026-11-10 | 10°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 10.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| São Paulo Guarulhos | 2026-11-09 | 15°C | 6:00 PM GMT-3 · 15.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Seoul Incheon | 2026-11-10 | 10°C | 11:00 AM GMT+9 · 10.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Shanghai Pudong | 2026-11-10 | 11°C | 9:30 AM GMT+8 · 11.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Shenzhen Bao'an | 2026-11-10 | 18°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 18.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Singapore Changi | 2026-11-10 | 28°C | 8:30 AM GMT+8 · 28.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Taipei Songshan | 2026-11-10 | 19°C | 8:30 AM GMT+8 · 19.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 10 / 0 |
| Tel Aviv Ben Gurion | 2026-11-10 | 13°C | 12:20 AM GMT+2 · 13.0°C | — | 21 min (:50) | 9 / 0 |
| Tokyo Haneda | 2026-11-10 | 12°C | 10:00 AM GMT+9 · 12.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Toronto Pearson | 2026-11-09 | 8°C | 4:00 PM EST · 8.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
| Warsaw Chopin | 2026-11-10 | -1°C | 2:30 AM GMT+1 · -1.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 7 / 0 |
| Wellington | 2026-11-10 | 17°C | 10:00 AM GMT+13 · 17.0°C | — | 1 min (:30) | 12 / 0 |
| Wuhan Tianhe | 2026-11-10 | 11°C | 10:00 AM GMT+8 · 11.0°C | — | 31 min (:00) | 6 / 0 |
How each venue settles
- Kalshi
- Kalshi settles each daily-high contract on the NWS Daily Climate Report for the named station — the 1-minute sensor maximum, whole °F, over the local standard time day — compared strictly against the strike.
- Polymarket US
- Polymarket US settles its daily-high markets on the same NWS Climate Report as Kalshi, at the same stations (Central Park, Midway, LAX, MIA, SFO), in 2°F buckets with two tails.
- Polymarket.com
- Polymarket.com settles on the highest hourly temperature remark of any routine METAR for the station on that calendar day (station clock), in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported; a report beginning SPECI does not count. US events convert to °F and round half-up; international events use whole-degree Celsius buckets.
The same data answers in one call for AI agents: the weather_settlement tool on the weather MCP server, and the JSON at /api/weather/settlement?city=la. Settlement rules per Kalshi series: How it settles.
Settlement tracker — FAQ
What does a Kalshi daily-high contract settle on?
The NWS Daily Climate Report for the station named in the rules — the maximum from the station’s 1-minute readings, in whole degrees Fahrenheit, over the local standard time day — as reported by The Weather Company. The hourly METAR you can watch during the day is a floor on that number: over a year of station-days the official high came in above the routine-hourly max about 60% of the time, usually by one degree.
What does a Polymarket temperature market settle on?
It depends on the venue. Polymarket US settles its five city markets (Central Park, Midway, LAX, Miami, SFO) on the same NWS Climate Report as Kalshi. Polymarket.com settles on the highest hourly temperature remark of any routine METAR for the station on that calendar day, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported, converted to Fahrenheit and rounded half-up for US events; a report that begins SPECI does not count. The two definitions differ by about 0.7°F on average at the same station.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket.com sometimes settle the same city on different days or stations?
Kalshi’s day is local standard time; Polymarket.com’s is the station clock, so during daylight time they are an hour apart. Three cities also use different airports: Polymarket.com reads LaGuardia, O’Hare and Love Field where Kalshi reads Central Park, Midway and DFW. The tracker lists each station separately so the two never get blended.
What does “locked” mean on a strike?
The running max already decides it. A strictly-greater-than contract is locked YES once the floor is above its strike; a less-than contract is locked NO once the floor reaches its strike; a bucket below the floor is locked NO. Nothing is ever locked YES on a bucket or a less-than contract while the day is still running, because the official high can only go up from the floor.
How often does the tracker update?
Observations are polled every five minutes from the same aviation weather feed Polymarket names as its resolution source; routine reports land once an hour at a fixed minute per station, and the countdown shows the next one. Kalshi’s settled value appears the morning after the climate day. Prices shown are the venue’s own mid with the time it was read.
Is this a pick or a model?
Neither. Every number is an observation the venue itself settles from, read under that venue’s published rule, plus the market’s own implied high from the Kalshi ladder as a reference. There is no forecast, no fair value and no position here.