Timothée Chalamet's chances to win Best Actor | Kalshi
March 4, 2026 · 2:52 · The 7 Oracles · Dane Martinez
What’s in this video
Dane Martinez, the Spittin' Statistician, looks at the Kalshi market for Best Actor and focuses on Timothée Chalamet's contract for his role in Marty Supreme. He notes that Chalamet's price has dropped from as high as 77% to around 50%, and argues this dip is a buying opportunity given Chalamet's award history and campaign momentum. He frames this as a chance for traders to get in before the price potentially rises again.
Key points
- Chalamet's contract to win Best Actor for Marty Supreme has fallen from as high as 75-80% to around 50% on Kalshi.
- Martinez calls this a 'buy the dip' opportunity, expecting the price to climb back up.
- Chalamet already holds a Golden Globe and a Critics' Choice award for Marty Supreme, which Martinez says often signals Oscar outcomes.
- He is the youngest male with three Best Actor nominations, following Call Me By Your Name and A Complete Unknown, and Martinez compares his situation to Leonardo DiCaprio's long wait for a win.
- Martinez suggests Adrien Brody's win and speech last year left some voters with regret, which could work in Chalamet's favor this time.
- Marty Supreme and studio A24 have racked up nominations but are unlikely to win many other awards, making Best Actor their best shot at a win.
Full transcript
What up traders? You know what it is. It's time to build your portfolio with another edition of Koshi Cash. I'm your host, Spent Statistician Dane Martinez, one of the seven oracles, helping you see into the future. In today's market, we look at it, it is Oscar season. And so, I want to look at the best actor kind of nomination, that potential Oscar, and look at Timothy Shalomé as the pingpong prodigy, Marty Supreme, in the A24 Studios production of Marty Supreme. And here's the opportunity. You need to buy the dip. Shalomé was as high as 75 80% to win this Oscar. And if you look at Kawhi now, he is all the way down to 50%. This is a perfect opportunity to get in on Timothy Shalamé to become best actor at 30 years old. Okay. Shalomé became the youngest male to receive three nominations for best actor following his roles in Call Me By Your Name and A Complete Unknown, right? So, he's kind of due. A lot of people are drawing kind of comparisons to how Leonardo DiCaprio for a while was consistently nominated and did not win. So, this could be Shalamé's year. Also, a lot of people, like I said, thought he should have won last year for the Bob Dylan movie, A Complete Unknown. And to be quite honest, Adrien Brody's speech after winning that gave some voters regret, if you know what I'm saying. He also, Shalomay, he wants this award. He has been campaigning for it relentlessly. He has also won a Golden Globe for Marty Supreme. He's won the creative choice award for Marty Supreme. A lot of times that is a tell for how the Oscars are going to go. The other thing is Marty Supreme itself, the movie was a huge hit. Marty Supreme has gotten a ton of Oscar nominations. The problem is they're probably not going to win many other awards. So, this is the opportunity for Marty Supreme as a movie, as a studio, as a production to get some hardware. And obviously, he is the title character, right? So, that would be the way they could do it. Also, A24 as a studio, they do a lot of great Oscar work. And this is probably their best chance to win anything. You put it all together, especially the dip in the markets we have seen where Timothy Shalamé I think was as high as 77% to win the best actor nomination and he is now down around 50%. This is your opportunity if you are a pure trader. Buy the dip and get Timothy Shalamé to win the Oscar for best actor. The Oracle has spoken. Now go get it now before those numbers jump back up.
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