Survivor 50 Chaos, A Fake Merge, and the Case for Cirie and Rizzo

Hello everybody and welcome to your favorite showabout show. It's the antenna with Dne the spitting statistician Martinez. What's going on? I'm Nino. We hope you're having a lovely day. Today we've merged. Uh kind of Dane, you know, let me vent for a second. Go ahead. They call it a merge and then split it back into That's not a merge. That should They shouldn't count this as a merge, right? Am I crazy? Well, you know what's interesting? In other seasons, right? Like they do the merge, but you still then have to like earn your buffs on some level and things like that. But they You're right. They did the merge and we were It was a tribe swap. It was a tribe swap, dude. Right. That's That's fair. I would also like to pat ourselves on the back. Like last week we were pontificating like what could the thing be? You said triple elimination. Check. I said more than one person on exile island. Check. You know, so both of those things happened. But you're right. It was not a merge in its truest sense because all 17 people were not at tribal council, right? Yeah. Right. Yeah. It's it's it was a tribe swap, dude. With three people going to Exile Island. I do think though, what are we down to now? We're down to 14, I believe. Right. because it was 17. They voted out three. Um, you know, Azie and Rizzo will come back. I do think that moving forward they are going to be one tribe. I don't think like next week they're going to split into two tribes of seven and like, you know, do the same. Yeah. Yeah. No, you're right about that. Yeah. I think now it's a full-on merge, but you're right. They're a little bit they were a little bit uh early on that on that nomenclature. Dane, who's your MVP? Who who did you look at and be like, I want to buy into this market? So, I would actually say I'm intrigued by Jonathan. I'm intrigued by Jonathan because he got a lot of air time. I know you like who's getting the good edit and stuff like that. And I think they tried to show him as more than just the beefed up Hercules, right? There were he he had interviews where he was talking about his strategy, how he wants to play, is he going to piss off the new guard or the old guard, right? And I think there were also clips of him where like the good warrior spirit guys want to get down with him like coach and Joe were excited to see him, but then he also was, you know, getting airtime at least getting close with like the strategic women, right? So I think D I think Si potentially. So I think there's a path for him where he's pretty well-liked. You know, I think people like Jonathan and that's something I came away from. And not only do people just like like him, but they edited it at least in a way that showed him to have some gameplay strategery. So I'm the very end though, right? Like drag him through the mud. That's you know that's that's what Camila was saying. Yeah. So, we'll see what happens in the next one. But I thought it was an interesting way to portray Jonathan. And I can see him gaining a footing with the like warrior samurai men and strategic women that want to be down. Does that like do you go too far past that tipping point where it's like Jonathan's a threat, let's get rid of him first. He's a giant. He's playing the game well now all of a sudden. Like he learned how to play. Like is that one of those things where it's like oh crap. So, I actually think Jonathan's uh, you know, brute force strength, for lack of a better term, is more of an asset in challenges when you're in tribes than individually. Because when you are in the tribes, there's always some kind of muscle aspect, right, that you could just put him on and then like puzzle. But individually, it's very rare that there's a individual immunity challenge that is like catered purely to bulky man strength because that just wouldn't be fair, right? There's usually the balance or the puzzle or whatever. So, I actually don't think in this stage of the game his, you know, challenge beastness is as big of a thing. Tell you what, mine was um Chrissy. Yeah. like I she popped up early like in the first 10 minutes I think and she was just kind of standing there in line like whatever. I'm like man I forgot about her. I completely forgot about her that she was around and then as the episode went along. It was actually post Trump's address where I think she you know there's a pre-Trump address then the interrupted and then the post Trump part um that where she like like shown you know like her whole thing like you know I know I'm going to be voted out. I just don't want to cry. Be honest with me. She's and then like her speech at tribal is what got me where she's like this season 50 thing and we've kind of talked about this a little bit on the show like season 50 is like a celebration you know like it's not supposed like I'm so devastated I've been voted out and blah blah blah like she was just like we're back having some fun and like healing old wounds or like scars and like it was this great speech and I'm like oh wow she's good like she's better than I I don't even remember her from the season she played on and like that I don't know man she's got momentum I If there's such a thing as survivor edit momentum, Dane, I think she's got it. Maybe that's fair. I I one thing I I took away from that to your point about like season 50 is a celebration, you know, that the final tribal council that had coach Siri and Colby in it and they like took that time where Colby was like, you know, I'm so thankful and full of gratitude and and she's like, "Oh my god, if I could pave the way for anybody, you know, and coach is like it's so honorable that we're revered." I I think the older guard players largely view it as what you're just saying like with Chrissy like celebration of joy like because they're also 15 years older right they're in their 15 they're like this is whatever whereas I think the newer players you see like Rizzo continuously being like I'm trying to prove that I'm one of the best of all time I'm trying to prove to these legends that I can hang you know so I I think there is kind of a line of demarcation here between how the old school and the new school plays. They even talk about that. I think Serei even said it at one point like the the new school will just get down with their enemy for one vote or two votes. The old school players will have loyalty, you know, like they really do kind of draw that line in the sand about gameplay. And I think Nand though to your point about Chrissy and what I'm saying about that last tribal I think not only the game play but also like the way they view this opportunity of being on Survivor 50 is different for old and new. Yeah. Uh some moving odds that we just want to well odds percentages that we want to throw out there real quick. Uh pretty much everyone's still at 1%. Right. Ser has gone up to 10 to win. Rizzo's crept up to four to win, which I assume is like a tailwind of Sere maybe. Um, and our our well so our bets that we put our bets, I'm sorry, the markets that we bought. Um, we had Charlie at 1% gone. Yep. Tiffany at 1% still in play. Emily at 1% still in play. Uh, and we went no with Aubrey, which was 12%, which is now 18%. No, Aubrey. She kind of she's dipping a little. Ser's coming up, but really Ser is taking a lot of the percentages from everybody else. Um, so there's your quick update. I don't know, Dan, is there anything there to read into? I I who knows? Not a ton. I will say this, you know, it all comes down to if you believe that kind of insider trading stuff or not for me, right? Like it has been out here for months that Aubrey is like apparently going to win, you know? And so what I've been saying on this show is, well, that means Genevieve was never going to win, right? Because she was going after Aubrey. She finally gets voted out. But that also means to me that people that are close to Aubrey will move. So I continuously say Tiff seems close with Aubrey, right? And so I think she's and now everyone who's left is in the jury. So I think percentages are going to start to move up, right? The other thing is if Sere is getting you talked about Rizzo being a tailwind off of Si and I think that was kind of interesting from this episode, right? Like I think that Azie, Siri, and Rizzo are not only working together, but have shared information with their idols and the extra votes and that is definitely locking you in. But then Azie also has um the Emily Christian Stephanie right from the old Vatu. So I think that that with Azie as a kind of lynch pin, you know, I think that is kind of interesting to have, you know, a group of like six or seven. If you think about the Aussie, Emily, Christian, Stephanie, Vatu group, are you on Aussie now? I'm not in on Aussie to win. I'm in on Azie to be the hub of the wheel of what could be a powerful alliance. Okay, let me rephrase it then since we're talking about markets here. Are you in on Azie at 1% now to maybe get to like 15 to 18% and then we'll be like let's sell you know that's interesting. uh he keeps winning Dane this all he does is win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win over and over again every thing and we're now at the individual immunity stage where he could win some immunity challenges you know my knee-jerk reaction is once again to be like not on Azie but someone else in that group you know um as someone like a Stephanie but that's game right like you've just named half of the players really it's seven of them and they're at 14 yeah so I think they are going to get together I you know I I would like to see that um but I I I I just can't get away from the fact that I think Azie and Coach and Siri and these like, you know, top tier Survivor famous people have too much of a target on their back. So, I I know you love Azie and he does keep winning, but I I I just I just they're gonna they're going to pick him off at some point. I don't know, man. I I think he's he's figured some stuff out. Maybe. I could be wrong. I could be wrong, you know? But now I'm like rooting I'm like rooting rooting for you know I obviously have a little money on Azie but also just like I like him you know I think he's a good redemption uh story. Sure. Maybe. Sure. I I think that's valid. I think that's valid. And um I think what's interesting there is he he seems to be locked in with Siri and Rizzo, but then he also seems to be locked in with Emily, Christian, and Stephanie. and and oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh Azie told Emily about his idol and Emily says I won't tell us all. I literally I started laughing when she was like I won't tell anybody but at least she hasn't told anybody yet. We'll see. They haven't showed it. Right. Right. Right. Right. All right. Um let's hit a couple other topics uh that I find interest I mean you Genevieve gone which is sad I guess. Uh, you know, but every hey, if you checked Kelsey during the week, spoil the crap out of it. We knew that was going to happen, right? Those three, the three who went home were flying high. And the idea is who, if you didn't make the if you didn't make the jury, I guess we can't say the merge anymore, but if you didn't make the jury, you went home on a separate plane early and everybody knew who was home early and that's why we have these numbers. And after we talked about last year and after week seven things got weird in the season 49 markets and those are the only markets we have to go on because it didn't exist before season 49 really for Survivor at least. But like this is where it's it's you know we don't know who came home early on the plane. So maybe like the week toeek markets will change a little bit. What do you think? They're all like they're all on Ponderosa together now and they have Yeah. Everyone Yeah. No one no one showed up early and started posting on Instagram, you know, from a restaurant. That's possible. But listen, every single time it's been there so far, it has been accurate. So once again, listen, you're listening to Nando and I here on the antenna. We are one of the podcasts of the seven oracles. You need to get down with the seven oracles. So go on over to predictionmarketspicks.com. And why do I say it? There's so much great stuff out there. Not only the podcast, not only the newsletter, not only the videos we put out, but there are great tools, including what we are talking about here. you know, how there may be some insiders out there that know we can, you know, if you sign up to the website and subscribe, you can get access to these tools to kind of get ahead of the curve. And when you see these big-time changes in the markets, you as a subscriber to the seven oracles will get notified. So, you know, like you were saying, you know, there are people that are saying, "Oh, I'm lucky because I got Colby at 70% before he zoomed to 97%." Right? If you want to be one of those people, subscribe to the seven oracles at predictionmarketspicks.com and you can get access to tools which will help you be ahead of the curve. This way you don't have to just uh [ __ ] and moan about it. You can make money off it. We're here to help. We're here to help everybody. Dan, I want to hit real quick. You know, I sent you my notes from last night. Two things. Jeff, you know, my LVP of this show is Jeff. I think like he's been super annoying as a host this year, right? Like it's just been like enough of the cheese. Oh, he's rapping. He's doing impersonations. Yeah. I don't like I'm not That's not what I You know, it's it's kind of like and you and I are from, you know, when a fantasy expert starts tweeting about something other than fantasy and they're like, "Well, you know, my fantasy stuff got 108,000 impressions. Uh this thing about, you know, my love for this HBO show only got 12,000." I'm like, "Yeah, cuz no one wants to read it." It's like, Jeff, just host, man. like you replace him with Ken Jennings. We just need someone to guide us through this. Anyway, he kept saying, "Oh, it's going to change the game forever. It's going to change this blood moon." And everyone started using blood puns and I'm like, "Man, this is like the cheese is over the top here. This is not going to forever change the game because you did a triple elimination. Like that's I feel like that's happened before." I agree. I think that Jeff's strength is he asked the right questions, you know, like at tribal council, he asked the proin questions. He, you know, narrates uh kind of the the gameplay of it. I think that is his strength. And so when we get into the kind of like promotion stuff like the way he talked about the damn food at Applebee's, right? you know, like and hey, like I mean to Applebees like you don't need that. His value to me is like I bet he was like a former lawyer or prosecutor, right? Like he asked the right question to get the information out about the part that you and I love the most, which is straight up the gameplay of it, the art of war of it, right? And and that is where I think he is best. Um, but you know, I guess you got you got to do some of that stuff for the sponsors. I get like as a lover of oldtime radio and stuff like I get like you know the Texico radio hour like you've got to do it right. You got to do it to pay the bills. That part I'm told like if he's saying like hey this you know Cajun seasoning with the bacon inside like I like I feel like he wasn't even that part I was actually okay with because it felt like he wasn't trying to you know hide that he was shilling for Applebees and he was just doing a read. Well also kind of like tempting their stomachs whatever like fine. Um, I don't know. It's just a corny, but it has nothing to do with gameplay. So, you know, moving along, I guess. Um, how do you feel about our Tiffany Emily No Aubrey? I'm feeling better about No Aubrey, actually. You know, it has been kind of leveling out lately, right? And, you know, her war with Genevieve is now over. And here's the other thing that I think helps the no Aubrey is that everybody knows about the idols, right? They did a whole kind of scene as soon as they merged where everybody knows about everything. Everybody knows about Aubrey's idol. Everybody knows about uh Azy's idol. Everybody knows about Rizzo's idol, right? It seems like the only thing is that people don't know about the sur extra vote that is tight with Rizzo. Um Azie and Si, which kind of locks them in. So, I guess the fact that everybody knows that Aubrey has an idol where we were led to believe at least kind of in the first couple of shows that maybe she was doing a good job of keeping that close to the vest. I think that hurts her gameplay because people may want to flush it out or people know that that target is there. So, I think that helps the no Aubrey. Um, so I feel good about the no Aubrey for now even though like the insiders have been right every single time. I oddly still feel decent about Emily and Tiff, you know, because like I like that Tiff is connected to Aubrey. Um, and Emily, while she can't keep her mouth shut, she seems to have relationships with a good amount of people. Yeah. But tell you what, that whole tear soaked tribute to Colby. Yeah. Um, and Coach and Ser, I guess. Like Emily didn't even like they didn't maybe they did it in real life but on the edits Emily was she did not participate at all. Yeah. You saw D get emotional and stuff also. Yeah. Yeah. Emily was just sitting there. Emily did not Yeah. She she was unmoved by it. I'm less I'm off Emily. I just I can't tell if she like her horrible gameplay is going to turn out to be good for her, right? Like her telling everybody everything and just like this is the first secret she's kept that you just mentioned before. Like I don't know if this is like maybe if you just fly by the seat of your pants that's a good thing here because you know it's not strategic. Maybe no one can trust you but like you are finding yourself as a swing a lot more than not. I just don't like as a TV watcher I guess I don't like her much anymore. But again you know for us good is not necessarily being in the final three. good is just, you know, her lasting what, three more episodes. That 1% becomes 10% and there's opportunity to cash out, you know, and at least I saw the um, you know, they do the little tease for next week and it seems that like coach is involved in some drama. Jonathan's involved in some drama. I didn't see Emily, you know, so maybe if she just flies under the radar for the next portion of the game, she gets the cash out territory. Yeah. I mean, here's the thing. Like, this is the week, I think. I hope uh where things move on these charts because it's just like everyone has just been squashed to 1%. Yeah. Um and this is I mean Dane when we started doing I think this is like a $8 million market when we started out. This this is a $13.4 million market on Khi right now. Wow. Um so it's going to take a lot I think to move these markets. There's been I mean there's just so much built up already, right? But again it's like what did you do yesterday, right? Like what did you pay for yesterday? What did you sell for yesterday? So, I mean, this might be our last chance to buy some people at a cent. So, out of the people who are So, okay. So, you know, do we had $20 originally, five of those dollars is gone, right? Yeah. Are you saying you want to reinvest? You want to get I don't know who The thing is, like I've got my I I own 140 shares of Aussie at two cents each, right? Like that's me personally. That's I'm I'm happy with that, right? Because I still believe like he's just going to win so much he'll win his immunity and stuff like that. Like I don't have like a good maybe Chrissy could slip through because you know people like her but it's not like Siri like her. You know what I mean? Like just like her you know we'll let her hang around for another vote and she'll get to maybe like five right and like maybe she'll go up to 10 cents. Like I'm in the whole who's going to go up to 20 30 cents. Right. Right. Right. Yeah. And I don't know who that like Rizzo climbing a little bit. I still think Ser at 10, you know, next week she could be 50. You know what I mean? Like she's 10 cents for Si is still a pretty good deal, I think. So, you know what I find is interesting? It's clear also that Siri and Rizzo are together, right? And they are pretty much like the only people that are not Aubrey and not 1%. Right. I see right now Seria 10, Rizzo at like four, right? And then it drops off to like a couple at two and then everyone else at one, right? So again, that gives me confidence that that alliance does well. Yep. So that gives me confidence that Azie stays with him for a while. And Aussiey's at 1%. I know you're already invested in them, but that makes me think Azie because like the numbers say here that Siri and Rizzo are going to be around. I also, you know, and I don't think they have enough episodes to do it. I also think it's so weird that people who have already been voted off are still at 1%. Yeah. You know, in a lot of other markets on Khi when you're gone and not an option anymore, it literally just says no. Like, you know, we did a lot of stuff for the Oscars and if you weren't one of the five finalists and on the list, like you were off the board and there was an X next to your name. You know what I mean? For some reason, they are not doing that here. And that is intriguing to me. Like, there's no reason that Savannah or Camila should still be on this board at the same level as people were talking about like Azie and Coach. Azie and Coach should not be at the same level as Mike White who's voted out. The Redemption Island twist with fans voting. I mean, the fans voted on this dumb, you know, possibility. Yeah. It's something. It is something. Um I don't know. Part of me thinks Christian is interesting. Um because I think he's I think people like him. He's entrenched with the Aussie Emily um Stephanie group. He also clearly is close with Devon's, you know. So I can see I can see Christian, you know, when you said like who's a 1enter that can go you could last a little bit longer to get up to 10 or 15. I think Christian is interesting in that vein as well. I'm gonna buy some Siri right now live at 10 at 10%. Yeah, I'm gonna buy Well, I'm flush with Trump money from the speech last night. Oh yeah, he said everything under the sun. That's But I mean like it's crazy that it took until like after the Artemis launch for them to like put some of the moon stuff into dimensions. Like that wasn't there at 4:00, 5:00. That didn't show up until like 7. And so once I saw moon and NASA, I jumped all over that. Like I had just been doing like secondary, you know, he's gonna definitely talk about it. What words will he use to describe that, right? So yeah, I got gasoline at less than 50%. Which to me was obvious. Well, I mean like and so like I've got, you know, I've got some cash now. I gota put some back in Syria. I'll put 10 bucks in. Next time we have to bet on Trump, like his line about like how we're the quoteunquote hottest country out there right now. It's great. Like hottest is really is always in those mentions and always like 10%. He loves talking about how hot we are. But but I digress. Next one of these we're gonna have a we're gonna have a couchy cast and just like do a live. Yeah. And like we'll have a whiteboard. We can have all the words and as he says them we'll circle them and we'll be great. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. All seven oracles. All right. Um 10. Yeah. Ser 10. So 10 bucks uh at 10% to win $94. That sounds like a a good future if Dane I mean if she cares towards I mean we talking about this like why haven't I put money on Siri if she carines toward and just to be clear this is Nando money this is not the seven official this is not the antenna official bank uh this is me going rogue but it's it's just like if you agree that these markets are soothsayers and truth tellers and she has climbed up uh you know from you know 6% 4% to 5% % to 6% now to 10%. Yeah. Um I just you know like at a certain point you get rid of the threats she just keeps finding ways. Plus she has an extra vote plus someone No. Yeah. She might find immunity. Someone might give her immunity. Like there's always that weird little twist uh that prevents you know someone from getting I I don't know. I just think 10 the 10 cents maybe will start to go up as we go along here. And like spoilers are gone too. So So here's here's what I'll do. uh on our own personal money. That's not the antenna money. I will see your three at 10 cents. I am going to apply your same logic and I'm gonna take Rizzo at 4%. All right. That's cool. All right. I like that. You know what I mean? Because it's kind of the same thing. They're together. Rizzo Rizzo has an idol, right? And he could kind of just as easily as Si could get up to 25%. Rizzo getting up to 10% would be the same kind of value for it to cash out. So, right, your personal bet is Serei. My personal bet will be the riz god RGOD. All right. All right. We're in Well, let's Hold on. Let me just do the math. You're $10 on the four. $234 for Rizzo is not bad. That's what I'm saying. Like is what? Nine and a half times your money. Rizzo's at 23x right now. Yeah. Yeah. It's pretty good. I also think bad, but I mean it's I mean this guy's got he's got a by the time it's all said and done, what do we have like 60 days in a row almost? Yeah. With like a fiveday break in the middle. Yeah. Like so I'm just saying it because of Rizzo being at four versus 10, it would take less movement for Rizzo, right, for the cash out potential to be there. So, all right. You You do SI, I'll do Rizzo as our kind of independent uh you know, go get them. Cheers. Feels good. Um all right, man. I feel good about this. We're looking ahead to next week now where an actual merged tribe should uh give us some answers and hopefully we'll know in a couple days when this who will be kicked off Survivor episode 7 market opens. It's not open right now as we do this. Um but like that's what happened. I think last week like the three getting eliminated maybe messed things up a little bit. Uh but yeah, there is a what will Jeff Pro say market. Um that's how you do it on Survivor. Can I get that? Yeah, one of Right. Yeah. Apple worth playing for. Can I get that? We'll do that next week. We We'll talk maybe the probes mentions will be a a new addition to the antenna. Ooh. Anyway, chaos will start next week hopefully based on history uh postmerge with no people landing, you know, and and posting. So stay tuned. Yeah. Um for now, check out predictionmarketspicks.com uh for all of your needs. We're take we'll take some feedback if you want to hit us up at the sevenoracles@gmail.com. Let us know. Yeah, whatever. All sorts of great stuff. Um, in the meantime, for the spitting statistician Dane Martinez, I'm Natino. Thank you all for joining us and listening, and we hope you learned something fun and exciting and new. Uh, join us on either the Siri or Rizzo ride as we go along here. You're welcome to. All right. Awesome, Dane. Until next week. The tribe has spoken.