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Amy Madigan To Win Best Supporting Actress on Kalshi

March 10, 2026 · 3:42 · The 7 Oracles · Dane Martinez

What’s in this video

Dane Martinez breaks down the Kalshi market for Best Supporting Actress, arguing Amy Madigan offers value at around 20-25% for her role as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. He points to her 40-year gap since her last nomination, a strong Oscar comeback narrative, and heavy campaigning as reasons the market may be undervaluing her position. He also considers Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku as breakout threats but suggests they could split votes, potentially benefiting Madigan.

Key points

Full transcript

What up traders? You know what it is. It's time to build your portfolio with another edition of Koshi Cash. I'm your host, the spitting statistician Dane Martinez, one of the seven oracles, helping you see into the future. We continue looking at Oscar markets today at Kshi and I think there is value on Amy Madigan to be the best supporting actress for her role as Aunt Glattis in the horror film Weapons. It is trading at only around 20 25%. She is the second or third choice but at 5 to one on your position I think there is a value. Her performance was marked by a kind of distinctive ghoulish appearance and it got her critical acclaim here 40 years after being up for this same award in 1985 for her role in twice twice in a lifetime. that has actually set a record for the longest gap between nominations for a female actor, 40 years, and she is now up for the same award. And quite frankly, she has a great quote unquote Oscar story, right? An older actress who never got kind of proper acclaim or recognition for her work. Her career wasn't as eyepopping and it makes she makes an amazing impression in a hit movie and is triumphant. That is a story the Academy kind of likes to tell and reward at times. So, I think that is going in her favor. Her movie Weapons was really well-liked, okay, by a lot of people out there. The only problem is it wasn't kind of big enough to get a ton of nominations in this season. This would be the only chance for Weapons to get any hardware, to get any awards, to get any recognition here. So that could be a way that um weapons gets some kind of acclaim and it would be with Madigan getting this award. She also early on in the season there was early buzz that Madigan was going to be the favorite in this. She has been campaigning very hard for this award and that also I think sometimes does sway the Academy. Now, I completely acknowledge as much as the Oscars loves kind of a um comeback story or a surprise, what they also love is a breakout. And the two other leading contenders in this category would fit that bill as a breakout candidate, right? Tiana Taylor in one battle after another as well as Wii Masaku for her role in Sinners. And that could be the case, right? And also Tiana Taylor has been going absolutely crazy on the kind of uh promotional scene right on the campaigning scene on Saturday Night Live and others. She has been absolutely killing it on the campaign and Tiana Taylor specifically I think would provide a fresh phrase, a nice look, a nice story to be honest. But just like how sometimes in an MVP voting in sports if there are two players from the same team that they could kind of quote unquote split the vote. I think that actually Tiana Taylor and Musaku could almost split the vote among the breakout kind of portion of people who might want to uh put this award on that kind of actress or a person of color could be splitting the vote as well. Leaving Amy Madigan as kind of the last actress standing and getting the award maybe not in a runaway percentage of some kind of voters of the Academy. You put it all together and I think at value Amy Madigan is a good look for her role in weapons to win best supporting actress. And what a story it would be 40 years after she was nominated in this same category in twice in a lifetime. It could in fact be twice in a lifetime for Amy Madigan. The Oracle has spoken. Now go and get it before the numbers move.

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