April 2026 FOMC Meeting — Decision & Market Recap
What prediction markets priced going into the Apr 28–29, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and what the Committee actually did.
Decision: the Fed left rates unchanged
This market has settled. See live odds for Sep 15–16, 2026.
Quick Answer
the Apr 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting has already happened — the Committee left rates unchanged. Its Kalshi KXFED contracts have settled, so the odds below are the final pre-decision snapshot, kept as a record of what the market expected. For live odds, see the Sep 15–16, 2026 meeting.
See the full KXFED ladder →Apr 28–29, 2026
No market data yetKalshi Fed rate market data will appear here once trading begins.
Bull / Bear Case
Apr 28–29, 2026- •Core CPI prints below 0.2% MoM — inflation clearly returning to target
- •NFP below 100K — labor market cooling, unemployment ticking up
- •GDP disappoints — growth slowing faster than Fed projected
- •Fed chair signals concern about employment in Beige Book/speeches
- •Core PCE remains above 2.5% — inflation re-acceleration risk
- •NFP above 200K — labor market too strong to justify easing
- •GDP beats — economy growing above potential, no slack
- •Dollar weakens or oil spikes — secondary inflation pressures mount
Cases update automatically as economic data prints. Bayesian model adjusts probabilities in real time.
Key Dates
Trade the Sep 15–16, 2026 Fed decision
The contract for this meeting has settled. Kalshi’s KXFED ladder is live for the next one — take a position on cut, hold, or hike. New accounts get a sign-up bonus through our referral.
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What Will the Fed Do at the April 2026 FOMC Meeting?
The Apr 28–29, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is one of 8 scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 where the Fed sets the federal funds rate target range. Prediction markets on Kalshi allow traders to take a position on the outcome — cut 50bp, cut 25bp, hold, or hike 25bp — with each contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Unlike opinion polls or analyst forecasts, prediction market prices are backed by real money. When a contract trades at 65¢, market participants are collectively saying there is a 65% probability of that rate decision. As new economic data arrives — CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP — the Bayesian model on this page quantifies how much each surprise should update that probability.
How to Trade the April 2026 FOMC Meeting
The best edge comes from correctly anticipating how upcoming indicator releases will shift the odds. Before a CPI print, ask: if inflation comes in hotter than consensus, how much should cut probability fall? The Bayesian model answers that question quantitatively. If Kalshi doesn't move as much as the model says it should, that divergence is the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Fed decide at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?
At the Apr 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting the Committee left rates unchanged. This page keeps the final pre-decision Kalshi KXFED snapshot as a record of what prediction markets expected going in.
Did prediction markets get the April 2026 Fed decision right?
This page shows the last KXFED snapshot taken before the announcement, so you can compare what the market priced against what the Committee actually did. Our running tally across every meeting we hold pre-decision data for is on the Fed Rate Tracker hub — market data begins July 2026, so the sample is deliberately small rather than backfilled.
Where can I trade the next FOMC decision on Kalshi?
The Apr 28–29, 2026 contracts have settled. Kalshi's KXFED ladder for the Sep 15–16, 2026 meeting is live now — it lists a threshold contract per rate outcome, and each YES contract pays $1 if that outcome settles.