Polymarket Economics & Macro Odds Today
Live Polymarket economics and macro markets — Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, and index levels — priced as implied probabilities and ranked by 24-hour volume. A contract at 40¢ means the market prices that outcome at a 40% chance.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
93%impliedVol $1.3M▲ 6¢ 24hWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%impliedVol $630KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
5%impliedVol $623K▼ 7¢ 24hWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%impliedVol $316KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%impliedVol $212KAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
76%impliedVol $97K▼ 4¢ 24hWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
71%impliedVol $94K▼ 7¢ 24hWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
28%impliedVol $43K▼ 9¢ 24hWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
23%impliedVol $38K▲ 5¢ 24hWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
0%impliedVol $23KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
3%impliedVol $18K▲ 1¢ 24hWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
67%impliedVol $17K▲ 8¢ 24hWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0%impliedVol $17KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
1%impliedVol $16KWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
13%impliedVol $15KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
1%impliedVol $15KWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
96%impliedVol $12K▼ 1¢ 24hWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
1%impliedVol $11KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
1%impliedVol $10KUS recession by end of 2026?
6%impliedVol $9KWill the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
22%impliedVol $9KReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
65%impliedVol $8K▲ 10¢ 24hNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
31%impliedVol $8K▼ 11¢ 24hWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
81%impliedVol $7K▼ 2¢ 24hFed emergency rate cut before 2027?
2%impliedVol $7KWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
12%impliedVol $6KWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
1%impliedVol $6KWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?
33%impliedVol $6KWill the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?
21%impliedVol $6KWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
18%impliedVol $5K▲ 5¢ 24hWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?
20%impliedVol $5KWill the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?
14%impliedVol $5KWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?
0%impliedVol $5KWill the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
72%impliedVol $5KWill the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?
44%impliedVol $5KWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?
12%impliedVol $5K
Economics Markets FAQ
What are the odds on Polymarket economic markets today?
Polymarket economic odds are live prices: a contract at 40¢ implies a 40% probability the outcome resolves YES. Macro markets cover Fed decisions, inflation prints, GDP, and index levels.
How do Fed-rate prediction markets work?
A Fed-rate market resolves on the central bank’s decision — for example, whether it cuts at the next meeting. The contract price in cents equals the implied probability of that outcome.
Can US traders use Polymarket macro markets?
Yes. Polymarket serves US traders through Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange live since December 2025 — identity verification is required and availability varies by state, and it lists a narrower slate than the international book. We still treat Kalshi as the primary US venue for its all-50-states coverage and deeper US-listed macro slate.