Bitcoin 5-minute Up or Down on Polymarket US

By Benny Ricciardi · part of the 5-Minute Board

Polymarket US opens a Bitcoin (BTC) Up or Down window every five minutes, 288 a day. Each asks whether Bitcoin ends the window at or above where it started. In our ledger, 49.8% of 1,433 windows from Oct 22, 2026 to Oct 27, 2026 settled Up. Kalshi lists Bitcoin windows of 15 minutes and longer, and none at five minutes.

Live window

Bitcoin BTC

1:19

12:45 PM–12:50 PM ET window

2¢

Down

98¢

Polymarket USPolymarketPartner · mid of 1¢ / 3¢, as of 12:48:40 PM ET

Closing minute0 of 60 seconds

Next window opens 12:50 PM ETBitcoin on Polymarket US →Sponsored by Polymarket US

Prices are our own snapshots of the Polymarket US order book (every 15 seconds, every 5 seconds in the final 90), refreshed on this page every 5 seconds. A price more than 60 seconds old reads “no current price.”

Results tape

Bitcoin: last 48 windows

Current run: 4 Up · longest today (ET): 10 Up

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7:55 AM to 11:50 AM ET windows, Oct 27, 2026. Newest on the right.

Base rates

Every cell shows its number of windows; cells under 100 are greyed.

Settled Up, by hour of the window's start (ET)

12 a.m.

41.7% n 60

1 a.m.

56.7% n 60

2 a.m.

48.3% n 60

3 a.m.

50.0% n 60

4 a.m.

56.7% n 60

5 a.m.

51.7% n 60

6 a.m.

46.7% n 60

7 a.m.

48.3% n 60

8 a.m.

58.3% n 60

9 a.m.

33.3% n 60

10 a.m.

55.0% n 60

11 a.m.

50.8% n 59

12 p.m.

53.7% n 54

1 p.m.

48.3% n 60

2 p.m.

45.0% n 60

3 p.m.

50.0% n 60

4 p.m.

46.7% n 60

5 p.m.

51.7% n 60

6 p.m.

48.3% n 60

7 p.m.

61.7% n 60

8 p.m.

48.3% n 60

9 p.m.

51.7% n 60

10 p.m.

50.0% n 60

11 p.m.

41.7% n 60

Settled Up, by weekday (ET)

Mon

49.0% n 288

Tue

51.0% n 143

Thu

55.1% n 138

Fri

47.6% n 288

Sat

51.7% n 288

Sun

47.6% n 288

The next window, after a run

After	1 in a row	2 in a row	3 in a row	4 in a row	5 in a row
Ups	50.1% n 712	51.4% n 356	53.3% n 182	55.2% n 96	54.7% n 53
Downs	49.4% n 720	50.8% n 364	50.8% n 179	47.7% n 88	58.7% n 46

Each cell is the share of next windows that settled Up. Runs count only back-to-back windows in our ledger.

Move size

Bitcoin: how far a window moves

Median 4.3 bp · 90th percentile 13.8 bp · n 1,433

0–1 bp210

1–2 bp183

2–5 bp419

5–10 bp335

10–20 bp222

20+ bp64

Bitcoin in other windows

Bitcoin 5-minute markets — frequently asked

What is the Bitcoin 5-minute Up or Down market?

A Polymarket US market that asks whether Bitcoin (BTC) ends a five-minute window at or above where it started. A new window opens every five minutes, 288 a day. Kalshi lists Bitcoin windows of 15 minutes and longer, and none at five minutes.

How does the Bitcoin 5-minute market settle?

Each window settles Up or Down against the value it started at, using the index and the measuring rule printed on that market’s Polymarket US page. The board links the current window for each coin.

How often does Bitcoin finish a 5-minute window Up?

In our ledger, 49.8% of 1,433 Bitcoin 5-minute windows settled Up, from Oct 22, 2026 to Oct 27, 2026. The hour and weekday grids below break that down, with the number of windows in every cell. Past results do not predict the next window.

How far does Bitcoin move in five minutes?

The median Bitcoin window moved 4.3 bp between its start and end values, and one in ten moved more than 13.8 bp, over 1,433 windows. A basis point is a hundredth of a percent.

Where do the prices on this page come from?

From our own snapshots of the Polymarket US public order book: every 15 seconds, and every 5 seconds in a window’s final 90 seconds. Every price shows the time it was read, and one more than 60 seconds old reads “no current price.” Results come from each closed market.