Polymarket Politics Odds Today
Live Polymarket politics and geopolitics markets — elections, leadership, and world events — priced as implied probabilities and ranked by 24-hour volume. The deepest, most-watched markets on the platform.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
98%impliedVol $739K▲ 5¢ 24hWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
77%impliedVol $651K▼ 2¢ 24hWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
28%impliedVol $617K▲ 2¢ 24h2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
7%impliedVol $589K▼ 1¢ 24h2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
68%impliedVol $515K▲ 2¢ 24hWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
23%impliedVol $428K▲ 2¢ 24hWill Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
0%impliedVol $371KNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
16%impliedVol $367KWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%impliedVol $357KWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
92%impliedVol $342K▲ 1¢ 24hUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
91%impliedVol $279K▲ 5¢ 24hWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
51%impliedVol $246KWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
33%impliedVol $234K▲ 2¢ 24hWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
7%impliedVol $225K▼ 1¢ 24hWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%impliedVol $205KWill Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
68%impliedVol $205K▲ 1¢ 24hUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
77%impliedVol $204K▲ 3¢ 24hWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?
0%impliedVol $180K2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
23%impliedVol $175K▼ 2¢ 24hWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
68%impliedVol $158K▲ 2¢ 24hWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
70%impliedVol $153KTrump out as President before 2027?
4%impliedVol $151KWill Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
14%impliedVol $148KWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%impliedVol $140K2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
1%impliedVol $136KWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
62%impliedVol $135KPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2%impliedVol $120KWill the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
96%impliedVol $117KWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
66%impliedVol $116K▼ 2¢ 24hWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
46%impliedVol $112KWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?
0%impliedVol $44KWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?
18%impliedVol $41K▲ 1¢ 24hWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
79%impliedVol $37K▼ 1¢ 24hStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%impliedVol $26K
Politics Markets FAQ
What are the odds on Polymarket political markets today?
Polymarket political odds are live prices: a contract at 58¢ implies a 58% probability the outcome resolves YES. Political markets are often the deepest and most liquid, so their prices are closely watched.
How accurate are Polymarket political odds?
High-volume political markets have historically tracked real-world outcomes closely, because deep liquidity rewards informed trading. Thin, low-volume markets are noisier — always check 24-hour volume first.
Can US traders use Polymarket?
Yes. Polymarket serves US traders through Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange live since December 2025 — identity verification is required and availability varies by state, and it lists a narrower slate than the international book. We still treat Kalshi as the primary US venue for its all-50-states coverage and deeper US-listed political and economic slate.