Skip to content
5-MINUTE

Polymarket US 5-minute Bitcoin, every window live

5-minute board · results

FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

Bitcoin · gold · silver · oil

MIDTERMS

Every 2026 race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket

Senate · House · governors

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

KalshiMacro & economics

Will above 100000 jobs be added in November 2026?

32c

YES · 32% implied

238

contracts 24h

269

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report shows total non-farm payroll employment increased by more than 100,000 in November 2026.

  • Initial release vs. later revisions — BLS non-farm payroll figures are revised in subsequent monthly reports and annually, but the rules don't specify which print (advance, first revision, second revision) is used for resolution, creating ambiguity if the initial release is near the 100,000 threshold.
  • Strict 'above' threshold, not 'at or above' — The rules say 'above 100,000,' meaning an exact print of 100,000 resolves NO, so positions near the boundary carry extra precision risk.
  • November 2026 report release timing — The November 2026 Employment Situation is typically released in early December 2026, so the contract won't settle until then — traders must account for this settlement lag when managing capital.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXPAYROLLS settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

Related Macro & economics Markets

Trade this market on Kalshi

Buy YES or NO directly on Kalshi

Trade on Kalshi →

Compare this market on Polymarket.com

See if there's a price discrepancy worth trading

Compare on Polymarket.com →

Get The 7 Oracles' take on this market — subscribe free

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.