How Kalshi settles Jobs numbers
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the change in total non-farm payroll employment for the named month, as reported in the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report, comes in strictly above the threshold.
3 resolution traps in the KXPAYROLLS rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Jobs numbersThe contract resolves YES if the change in total non-farm payroll employment for the named month, as reported in the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report, comes in strictly above the threshold.3 traps
- Strictly above threshold, not equal — The rule uses 'above', so a result exactly equal to the threshold resolves NO, not YES.
- Initial release vs. later BLS revisions — The rules cite the BLS report but do not specify which print is used — if a revision later moves the number across the threshold, it is unclear whether the contract re-settles or locks in on the first release.
- Month of report vs. month of data — The BLS Employment Situation for a given month is released the following month, so traders must distinguish between the reference month of the data and the calendar date the report is published when timing their positions.
KXPAYROLLS contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXPAYROLLS
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Jobs numbers markets?
The contract resolves YES if the change in total non-farm payroll employment for the named month, as reported in the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report, comes in strictly above the threshold. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Jobs numbers contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly above threshold, not equal — The rule uses 'above', so a result exactly equal to the threshold resolves NO, not YES.
What does the KXPAYROLLS ticker mean?
KXPAYROLLS is Kalshi's series ticker for Jobs numbers. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Jobs numbers?
Not yet. We track KXPAYROLLS settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.