How Kalshi settles Jobs numbers
Reviewed by Benny Ricciardi
Rules last read
Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the month-over-month increase in total non-farm payroll employment reported in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for August 2026 exceeds the threshold (strictly above, not equal to).
3 resolution traps in the KXPAYROLLS rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Jobs numbersResolves YES if the month-over-month increase in total non-farm payroll employment reported in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for August 2026 exceeds the threshold (strictly above, not equal to).3 traps
- Strictly above threshold β hitting it exactly resolves NO β The rules use 'above' (not 'at or above'), so a print exactly equal to the threshold (e.g. exactly 30,000 or exactly -25,000) resolves NO, not YES.
- BLS initial release only vs. later revisions β The BLS revises non-farm payroll figures in subsequent months; if the contract settles on the first print rather than a revised figure, a borderline result could flip, and traders need to confirm which print governs.
- Two variants with different thresholds exist in this series β Variant 1 requires the print to exceed a positive threshold while Variant 2 requires it to exceed a negative threshold β traders must confirm which variant their specific contract references, as they have very different probabilities of resolving YES.
KXPAYROLLS contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXPAYROLLS
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Jobs numbers markets?
Resolves YES if the month-over-month increase in total non-farm payroll employment reported in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for August 2026 exceeds the threshold (strictly above, not equal to). That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Jobs numbers contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly above threshold β hitting it exactly resolves NO β The rules use 'above' (not 'at or above'), so a print exactly equal to the threshold (e.g. exactly 30,000 or exactly -25,000) resolves NO, not YES.
What does the KXPAYROLLS ticker mean?
KXPAYROLLS is Kalshi's series ticker for Jobs numbers. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Jobs numbers?
Not yet. We track KXPAYROLLS settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.