Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the earlier settlement time on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps in the KXBTC15M rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Bitcoin price up downResolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the earlier settlement time on the settlement date.4 traps
- CF Benchmarks BRTI — not spot price — Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), not any exchange's spot price; discrepancies between BRTI and exchange prices can affect whether the position resolves as expected.
- 60-second simple average, not a single print — Each reference price is the arithmetic mean of sixty one-second BRTI values, so a brief spike or dip in Bitcoin's spot price in the final seconds may not move the average enough to change the outcome.
- "At least" makes equality resolve YES — The comparison is ≥, so if both 60-second averages are identical the contract resolves YES, not NO — a tie favours the long side.
- Seconds window is "before" the timestamp — The 60 seconds used are those immediately preceding each named time (not including or starting at it), so the exact second-boundary definition matters when the averages are close.
KXBTC15M contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
How close our price feed is to Kalshi's settlement print
Kalshi settles KXBTC15M on the simple average of the 60 one-second CF Benchmarks index values immediately before the cut-off — the way Kalshi states it in the contract, not a single spot print, and publishes the exact figure it used. We record our own independent read at that instant and score it against theirs. Rounded to 2 decimals, the precision this series settles at.
Every miss, listed
- large 2026-09-26 05:00Z · off by 0.04
- large 2026-09-26 04:45Z · off by 0.17
- large 2026-09-26 04:30Z · off by 0.04
- large 2026-09-26 04:00Z · off by 0.03
- large 2026-09-26 03:45Z · off by 0.06
- large 2026-09-26 03:00Z · off by 0.23
- large 2026-09-26 02:45Z · off by 0.13
- large 2026-09-26 02:30Z · off by 0.21
- large 2026-09-26 02:15Z · off by 0.54
- tick 2026-09-26 02:00Z · off by 0.02
This is a measured approximation, not the settlement feed itself. If a contract is decided by the last tick at the final decimal place, do not size it off this. Trade responsibly.
Our record on KXBTC15M
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Bitcoin price up down markets?
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the earlier settlement time on the settlement date. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Bitcoin price up down contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: CF Benchmarks BRTI — not spot price — Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), not any exchange's spot price; discrepancies between BRTI and exchange prices can affect whether the position resolves as expected.
What does the KXBTC15M ticker mean?
KXBTC15M is Kalshi's series ticker for Bitcoin price up down. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Bitcoin price up down?
Not yet. We track KXBTC15M settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
How accurate is your price feed against Kalshi's KXBTC15M settlement?
Across 1626 settled instants measured so far, our independent read reproduced Kalshi's published settlement print to within one tick 117 times — mean absolute error 0.2282, worst 3.57. Kalshi settles on the simple average of the 60 one-second CF Benchmarks index values immediately before the cut-off — the way Kalshi states it in the contract, not a single spot print, and publishes the exact number it used, so this is measured against their own print, not an estimate. We started recording on 2026-09-09 and nothing before that can be reconstructed, so the sample is small and stated rather than rounded up.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.