If you came to Kalshi through the NFL or the NBA, every contract you have ever held had two outcomes. One side wins, the other loses, and a contract on either pays $1 or $0. The Premier League breaks that habit on its first fixture. Kalshi lists three contracts on every match — home, tie, away — and the middle one pays on a result no American major-league market has a contract for: neither team wins.
This is the mechanics piece. No prices that go stale, no calls. What the three contracts are, why they add up the way they do, how to think about pricing a draw, exactly what Kalshi's rules say about settlement and postponements, and where Polymarket US fits. The live board is at /soccer/premier-league whenever you want numbers.
Three contracts, one fixture
On a Kalshi Premier League fixture the event is the match, and it carries three markets. Each is an ordinary Kalshi contract: it trades between 1¢ and 99¢, pays $1 if its outcome is the result, and $0 otherwise. Kalshi labels the middle one Tie. The result it settles on is a draw.
Because the three outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive — exactly one of them happens, and one of them must — the three contracts together are a claim on $1 no matter what. That is the whole reason the prices behave the way they do.
Here is a hypothetical fixture with round numbers:
| Contract | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 50¢ | 50% |
| Tie | 25¢ | 25% |
| Away | 25¢ | 25% |
| Sum | 100¢ | 100% |
Buy one of each and you have paid 100¢ for a bundle that pays exactly $1 whichever way the fixture goes. On Kalshi, which charges no vig on the price itself, that is what the sum should be. If the three legs ever summed to 96¢ you could buy the set and lock in 4¢ risk-free; traders would do that until the prices moved, which is why they do not sit there.
On a live book the sum lands a little above 100¢, not below. Two reasons, both structural: you buy at the ask, not the midpoint, and each leg carries a trading fee. That excess is the round-trip cost of the market. It is not a margin anyone is keeping, and it is the number the Premier League board prints in the corner of every fixture as the complete-set cost.
How to think about pricing a draw
The instinct from two-outcome markets is to price the favourite and take the complement. That gets you nowhere here, because the complement of "home wins" is "home does not win," and that includes the draw. You need a number for the draw itself.
Start from a base rate. In the 2025–26 Premier League, 104 of the 380 fixtures ended level — 27.4% — computed from the drawn column of the final league table on Wikipedia. That is the league-wide frequency of the outcome, and it is the honest starting point: over a full season, a little more than one fixture in four is a draw.
Then adjust for the fixture. The base rate is an average across every kind of matchup, and draws are not spread evenly across them. Two sides of similar quality draw more often than a mismatch, because the most likely scorelines cluster around one goal each way. A fixture where one side is expected to score three and concede none has very little probability mass on a level result. The practical rule: the closer the two team contracts are to each other in price, the more of the remaining probability belongs to the draw. The wider they are apart, the less.
Then check the market's arithmetic. Once you have a draw number, the three legs have to sum to about 100%. If your home and away numbers plus your draw come to 108%, one of the three is wrong. The Probability Converter turns your percentages into contract prices and back, and the EV Calculator tells you what a leg is worth against the ask once you have a number you believe.
One more round-number hypothetical: home 40¢, away 33¢, so the tie has about 27¢ left — right at the base rate for a fixture that close. If the tie were instead quoted at 20¢, something has to give: either this fixture is genuinely less drawn than average, or one of the team legs is too rich. That is the read the three-way structure invites.
What Kalshi's rules say about settlement
Kalshi's rules for the Tie contract state that the market resolves to Yes if the fixture is tied "after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties)."
Three things follow from that:
- Stoppage time counts. A 2–2 that becomes 3–2 in the sixth added minute is a home win, not a draw. The result is whatever the referee's final whistle says it is.
- Extra time and penalties do not count. In Premier League play this never arises, because league fixtures end after stoppage time. It matters if you ever trade the same contract shape on a cup round that goes to extra time: the Tie contract settles on the score at 90 minutes plus stoppage, regardless of what happens afterward.
- The contract is on the result, not the scoreline. 0–0 and 3–3 settle identically. There is no separate contract for a scoreless draw.
Postponements, abandonments and rescheduling
Weather, fixture congestion and the occasional abandoned match are ordinary features of a nine-month season. The rules text for the Tie contract states that if the fixture "is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules."
A short delay — a kickoff pushed back inside the 48-hour window — keeps the market alive on the rescheduled fixture. A longer postponement, or a cancellation, does not settle the contract on a result: it resolves at a fair price under Kalshi's rules, which is a different thing from either winning or losing. Before you enter a position on a fixture carrying a weather or scheduling risk, open the market and read its own rules text. The 48-hour line is the one that decides what happens to your contract.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same fixture
Polymarket US lists the same three outcomes on the same fixtures, as three separate contracts. It is a separate exchange from Kalshi — separate order book, separate traders, separate settlement — so the same fixture is priced twice, and the two prices do not have to agree. Polymarket also runs an international book, which is a third venue and not what a US trader reaches; every Polymarket price on our board is Polymarket US.
The draw leg is where the two venues most often disagree, by a cent or two, and that disagreement is a real one between two sets of traders rather than a rounding artefact. The Premier League board shows both venues on all three legs of every fixture, after each venue's own fee, with the cheaper leg marked; the leg-by-leg comparison is the same board framed around the venue question. No numbers here, because they change every fifteen minutes and the page is the place for them.
The complete set, and the fee that sits on it
A complete set is one contract on each outcome — home, tie, away. It pays exactly $1. What it costs you all-in is the cleanest single measure of what a venue takes on a fixture, because it strips out any opinion about who wins.
On Kalshi the cost has two parts. The first is the asks: three legs bought at the offer rather than the midpoint. The second is the trading fee, which Kalshi publishes as 7% of price × (1 − price) per contract. That formula peaks on a 50¢ contract at 1.75¢ and falls toward zero at the extremes — about a third of a cent on a 95¢ contract. Because a three-way market on an even fixture puts all three legs in the 25¢–45¢ band, close to the fee's maximum, and you pay it three times, the set fee is largest on precisely the fixtures where the draw matters most. The Kalshi Fee Calculator prices any leg, or the whole set, before you commit.
To hold more than one leg — the draw plus one side, a position that pays on two of three outcomes — the Combo Edge Builder prices the bundle against the individual asks.
The one-paragraph version
Three contracts, one on the draw. They sum to about 100¢ because exactly one pays and there is no vig; the excess is spread plus fee. Price the draw from a base rate — 27.4% in 2025–26 — adjusted for how even the fixture is, then check that your three numbers add up. Settlement is the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, never extra time or penalties. A postponement of more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price, not on a result. And the same fixture is priced separately on Polymarket US.