The Tool We Use to Find Midterm Trading Edges on Kalshi | The 7 Oracles Midterm Hub

Now, here's the thing. Here's another one of Benny's incredible tools that I think really can be leveraged in the next few weeks. The midterms are on the way, right? But the thesis you have to understand is that the trade, the markets, prediction markets have been over the last few years more historically accurate, better at calling races than say some of the forecasters. You have inside elections, Sabato's crystal ball, stuff like that, and the polls, right? Well, one thing I've been noticing lately using this tool, Benny, is that your polls, a lot of the polls come out like once a week, right? Or another poll will come out, you're looking at a poll from October 3rd or something like that. What's beautiful on Koshi is that you get the trend and you get the line, right? So, what this is going to show you, first of all, on the one side here, it says a column with what the forecasters are saying, right? And that's like what your polls, what your inside politics are saying. On the other column, it's what is the Democrat trading at on the prediction markets. And sometimes you see a gap. Like recently, we talked about the Texas Senate, okay, where a lot of these forecasters are a little bit behind the times. They're still seeing it as a tossup or they're saying now all of a sudden Terico is taking a lead. Meanwhile, he's trading in the 60s already. He's trading at 67 68%. And you can also see the trend line that he's gone up about 15 20 percentage points over in the last two weeks. You can see that in the markets a lot quicker than waiting for the next Marrist or Gallup poll to come out in a week or two. The same thing is happening in Michigan with Elsed, right? These are trends that if you're following the prediction markets, you can get on and kind of not miss the boat and get it when it's shooting up. get it at 57% instead of waiting until it's at 68 69%. And what is also great about this, what I've been doing is I'm looking for markets that are still being rated kind of close or as a tossup or even leaning one way whereas the markets have it leaning the other way or as a more kind of more solid favorite as it were, right? Because in all of these cases in his, you know, in recent history, the prediction markets have gotten it right. In the 2024 election, there were seven swing states that everybody thought was going to be a toss-up. Well, guess what? The prediction markets had all seven actually going in the Republican way towards Trump. And guess what happened? That's exactly what happened. Right? So, that's kind of we got the data to see that the prediction markets are on this, right? So, now you see what the gap is, you can find ideas and places where you can trade. And what I've really started to see is because the markets are 247 moving, you can see when there's trend lines that are not going to be kind of um acknowledged until there's another poll from Maris or another poll from Gallup. And these forecasters are in essence not as real time as the trading markets. So, that is something that you can get an edge and just like Jean said, use the promo code NFL26 and you will get 26% off on a subscription. And this is one of the tools that I really think is valuable, especially in the next three weeks as we head into the midterms. Jean, hey, can I can I hop in here real quick because I just wanted to add something to what Dane said, which you broke this down all great for everybody. We have a bunch of people, especially our following is very heavy into sports, right? And a lot of them are into sports betting and all that stuff. So they kind of understand that world. So let me break it down in the sports betting sense for you, right? Basically what we did here is the couchy number is the market. That's the number that you see out of sports booking situations. A lot of you guys are using some kind of projection system models or whatever to get the numbers that you want for, you know, yardage totals and touchdown passes and all this stuff. Well, that's the same thing we tried to do here. You know, I tried to find, well, who are who are the experts here? Okay, well the experts are these, you know, the pundits that are coming out, the ones that actually have a track record. And then we're like, okay, well, let's see where the pundits think this market should be. And then let's see where the market actually is. And then again, these are all screeners. This is for you to do with what you what you feel. If you feel that, hey, the pundits are the ones who are right. Well, then back the pundits everywhere that Kouchy is higher. If you feel like like I do or like Dne does that, hey, you know, the the data has shown that in recent times whenever the pundits and Kowi have disagreed, Koshi has been the one who's won more than the pundits have or Poly Market has won more than the pundits had. So, I'm always going to go with the money, right? Wherever people I don't care what people are actually saying. I care what people are putting their money down because they think something is going to happen. So, you know, if you follow the money, you're going to find some of these things. And again, these aren't guarantees. We're not saying every one of these is going to win. What we're saying is look, the back data has shown that when Kowi says one thing and the market says another thing, Kowi is the one who's usually right. So let's try to find a places where the market says one thing and the pundits are saying something different because that's probably where the edge or where the value is here. And that's basically the idea of that tool.