Fade the Field Ep. 6

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to another edition of Fade the Field, a seven oracles production. I am Roomula, you know your oracle over here, joined as always by the man in myth, the legion. Make sure you check out all of his breakdowns on chopping it up with CJ, my guy Chris James. CJ, how you doing today, man? [snorts] I'm trying to make it happen over here uh in the Midwest. How are you doing over there in the Southeast? I'm good. I'm happy that you didn't float away at one point in time. I I saw that it looked like the entire state was underwater. So, um I'm I'm happy you're still glad you can float, you know, glad you have some buoyancy to you and and we're here to, you know, um deliver the deliver the me deliver the message to the people. Um, last week we were we we gave our picks on um, you know, teams to win series and as it stands right now, Atlanta one one- one with the Knicks. Um, Cleveland looked dominant in their first game versus Toronto. the Lakers um beat um the Lakers beat Houston, but obviously we nobody knew that Kevin Durant was wasn't going to be there and as I think we both expected Denver handled um Minnesota. Um so we're we're we're getting towards those things as as they come, you know. Um shout out to shout out to the Magic. You know, Magic made it in. I thought that I thought that that you know it would be the the the Hornets. I thought that it would be the Hornets that would get in, but they were able to just absolutely mollywop the Hornets early. They were never able to recover from that after losing to um after losing to the Sixers. And so like then they got into the eight and they they beat you know they beat Detroit. So it's all kind of craziness going on. Make sure you're going over to all of wherever you do your prediction markets from if that's Koshi or Poly Market or you know FanDuel Predicts or any of the other places like go over there and check out what they have going on because right now there's some volatile lines. Now, we're going to we're not going to focus on basketball today because we know that the NFL draft is right around the corner and we're starting to see these markets build out here in in re in relevance to I mean in in relationship to the draft. And so today, we want to come and talk to you about some draft um stuff that's going on and and maybe kind of give you a little bit of advantages you should watch when you get into draft day. Um you want to get started here, CJ? Yeah, we get started. I just wanted to open up with one thing. See, these are this situation is all about tipping points. If you would have bet on Jordan Tyson before his workout to see if he could be the number one receiver taken, that could have benefited you. That type of situation or trades that are made right before the actual NFL draft, they change the structure. People are in flux. So, since you're betting against other people, you want to use those tipping points as a way to get your best value prior to something becoming normalized. Yeah. And and with that, right, with that, it's interesting because, you know, Dane Martinez, the spitting statistician over there, had had a play out that said that Mai Lim would go in the top 10, and that was before his workouts came out. So, the value on it was super high. Since his workouts have come out, you've seen that value start to go down. So, if you saw that video on the sevenoracles.com, you played that, you actually have some equity in that play right now. It's worth more than it was when you when you first, you know, purchased it. So, that's the type of thing we're talking about. You don't always have to wait until the end to see it through. You just need to get closer and closer where that value continues to go out and then you go, "Hey, you know what? Now might be a good time to cash out." So, definitely want to keep that in mind. Now, that's a great that's a great point, CJ, about about when you catch it and and and when you're trying to tip your hand on what you want to do in these investments. Let's let's let's go over let's let's flip over to our first thing. We wanted to get in um the first um the first round and kind of and kind of see where things are going in that first round. So, let's let's go over let's get it started here right now. And our first thing up is a player drafted in the first round. Now, you know, um they have players that are drafted in the first round. You get to choose a player that you think is going to be drafted in the first round. Give us a guy that you believe will be a great value that's going in the first round. So, one of the things you have to look at is the people or the teams that are selecting late in the first round. That's where you're going to get your actual value because that's where things get a little out of whack. And the teams that are selecting in the bottom eight of the first round, they need a certain position, a decent number of them. That's defensive tackle. I like Caleb Banks going to someone like the Chicago Bears. Right now, he's trading at 13% to go in the first round. That's 7.25. You put a 100red out there, you end up getting 725 back on your money. And again, different teams have different boards. That one fits the scheme. And also, the tape backs it up. He could be a player that could go in late first round and you just seven extra money. I I I love that pick. I love it. I I I I thought about it. I'm going to stay with the defensive line because I think that's where the money is. Um the defensive interior specifically, there are not a lot of elite defend defensive interior players in here. you have Peter Woods and then kind of everybody else, right? But what you do have is you have three guys who are considered to be like legitimate nose guards that I think could go in in the first round, have a chance to like jump into the first round. The first one is Kaden McDonald. Yes, there's no value there, right? Like he's he's up there. Um most people believe that Kaden McDonald is going to go in the first round. um 66% so 1.4 um 8x on your money. Not really much there. The other one though, Lee Hunter, the defensive tackle, the nose guard out of Texas Tech. Here's why I think he has a chance to go in the first round because he has knockback ability. anybody has the ability to change the line of scrimmage at the nose guard, they get a little bit more of a boost, especially towards the back end of the first the first round when you have teams who aren't necessarily just looking for um best player available. They have one hole that they need to fill or maybe two holes that they need to fill. And so now they're just trying to say, "Hey, when's the best time to pull the trigger on this guy? Can we wait until round two to get him or do we need to get him right now? I think it's going to be a little bit dangerous for people to wait for Lee Hunter or for um Iowa State defensive tackle um Mr. Orange himself, Big Citrus, um to to come off the board like they're going to probably reach a little bit for them. And if you reach for Lee Hunter, you're going to get him at 9%. That means you're getting 13x on your money. That would be place that I'm looking to go. And you know why that's a good play? It's because the confluence of things you talked about are right there. If you go look at the tape, a lot of what David Bailey and company were able to do on the edges was because Lee Hunter affected so much of the interior of the pocket. That's no slight to them. Great players. But the other thing is there's a team that looks like they are primed to take that particular player at a certain position because they have a June 1st post June 1st trade coming up. That's the New England Patriots. You put him in that defense, they're able to get a guy who can stop the run, fill gaps, do all things that need to be done, and also has the ability to play on first and second down to actually push that pocket. That's a good matchup cuz everyone mocked receiver to him. Now, if they're supposed to get AJ Brown, why wouldn't they go with a guy like Lee Hunter? Yeah, I mean, there's some if you wanted to put some, you know, um lottery tickets out there, you know, there's some there's some lottery tickets out there in my in my mind. um uh uh uh Jeremy Bernard at um 18.7x 9% being traded, Chris Bell, names that we've heard of receivers who are kind of coming on late that people might decide, hey, I want to get that fifth year to try to control, but those are we call them penny stocks for a reason, right? You're you're throwing that lottery ticket out there. Um I I want to go ahead. One guy that I think is narrative driven, you said name, and name could come into play here more than the film. No slight Adam, but Jacob Rodriguez. When a name comes into someone's mind, teams will jump at it because they think that they can get the value there. He's trading 4.5 uh x his his number, 21% is what he's going at to go in the first round. And again, narratives change stories and drive stories, and he has one with a name value. Yeah. And and he's a damn good, you know, football player, too. like he's a he's a real disruptive player. Um I I think that some of the reason he doesn't get as much love as a first round draft pick, but he definitely could be is because people think you can get something similar to him later on in the draft. Guys who and so I think that's hurting his draft at a position that is not considered to be a glamour position. We've got some matchups. We've got matchups and and what we're doing here is we're looking at some draft matchups. Which one of these players will be drafted first, right? That's how the matchup goes if you're looking at it um on on on Koshi, right? Um it says draft matchups. You have to look for it. Go to the Pro Football draft tab, go to draft matchups, and you will see them there. So, let's take a look at our first draft matchup. the first draft matchup, Arll Ree versus David Bailey. And and quite honestly, this has just been a an argument. Which guy are you taking? Which guy do you think um you want to make a cornerstone of your defense? I I'll I'll take this first. For me, I think Arll Reese is the play even though I know that the money, right? Um or that the the value more value is on um I'm sorry, not more value. Even though I know that the money is on David Bailey, I think the value is in Arville Ree because he's trading at 42% that's 2.19 on your money. Um as opposed to David Bailey that's trading at 58%. I think the reason that Ree is the play is because he does more. I've never seen David Bailey play a stand up linebacking role. So, I don't know if he can do it, but I know Arll Reese can. And I know that Arll Reese, even without all of the the the skills that has been have been have been developed as an edge rusher, he's going to get into a camp. He's gonna pick that stuff up like it's nothing because he's a natural like a natural rusher and he's physical. So, he's a guy who can be down there in the trenches and not just get blown off the ball like you see some of these edge rusher [snorts] converts do like Carter struggled with it in year one with the Giants because he's just a speed guy. He didn't bring the power element with him. Arl Ree, if you try to just blow him off the ball, he's gonna strike him. Good luck. Yeah. and and that's going to be fun to watch. So for me, I'm going Arll Reese here. This one is simple to me and it's Aral Reese is my number two overall player on my big board. So let's go there right now. Number one for me. Bingo. And the second thing is this. This is a a quintessential thing of people see, you know, big boards or mock drafts and so the money goes down. This isn't an analytic situation. This is what people are putting out there. David Bailey is less of the type of player that I believe would be selected at two for the Jets for this reason. Arvo Reese in a defense that needs a lot of things in a defense that brought was brought over from the the uh Detroit Lions. They like a larger linebacker. Maybe he starts off as a linebacker, but then he's uses an overhang player who rushes the passer. More versatility and also he has that entire Aaron Glenn Lions type of mindset and behavior and demeanor. Plus, the money says you need to go there. 2.1, you put a $100, you get $214 back. That feels easier than anything that we're going to talk about today in my opinion. Yeah, and I agree with you. I think that his vers again, his versatility for a defense that's looking for versatility, so they can be a little bit more unpredictable. the fact that you don't have to like bring another sub subset in when when he you want him to pass rush. You can just, you know, he goes from a standup linebacker, he just drops down to an extra rusher. You can blitz him from depth. He he he's adept at it. Like he knows how to how to operate in these levels with David Bailey. And this is no diss Bailey because I think he might be the best pure pass rusher correct in this draft. That's his that's his bag. That's what he's doing. That's what he's here for. But what about the other times? We've seen it where guys can get sacks but not be very effective in other areas. And so I think that you want a complete football player right now. That's that's going to be Arll Ree. And when you consider that the head coach of the Jets is a tough no a tough-nose defensive-minded guy. It just makes sense. He's not really a glamour type of defensive coach. like he wants rough and and and physical guys at that position. And David Bailey plays like two guys in some respects. A guy who's an allp pro, Nick Bosa, and a guy who just got paid and and uh my goodness from Cincinnati. Just got paid. Oh. Um you're talking about the the end from that went to the Ravens, correct? Oh yeah. Um um Hudson, I mean Hawkins, not Henderson. Henderson. There you go. Yeah. both left the back door open. They leave that faux edge. So, some some guys don't like that. I don't think that that's something that the Jets would like to have happen because they don't want him to just pin his ears back and not be responsible for the edge. Yeah. And and hopefully whoever gets him you just utilizes him the way he should be used. Hey, it's it's second and long, it's third and long. Go hunt, big dog. Like, don't even worry about the run. We'll get somebody else in there to do that. Um, next matchup. Let's check it out. This is an interesting one. I like this one. Jordan Tyson, who has been flying up draft boards now that everybody thinks he's going to be healthy versus Mai Lemon, who has been kind of holding steady as the number two, number three um wide receiver in this draft. which guy do you think it will be the first person off of the board and you know where would you look to to possibly you know put your investment? So I made mention of this early in the show prior to his workout last Friday. I put money on Jordan Tyson to be the first wide receiver taking over Cardinal Tate because I knew that workout would either make sense for some folks and get over that hurdle with his health related issues or it could be a detriment. Now, we sit here with Melan being over 5x your money. I would actually say put money on him. Not because I believe he'll be taken first, but we're looking at what NFL teams are going to do. If you're not willing to take Tyson over Tate, that means that you think his medicals are an issue. And as he slides down the board, people, especially a team like the Rams, might go with the safety net of Mai Lemon while Tyson slips to 16. Now, you're getting five extra money because of how things fall on the draft board over anything else. Tyson being the bet here doesn't make you enough coin in my opinion. And I agree that Tyson being the bet here doesn't make you enough to want to put anything, you know, invest in him to come off off of here before Mai Lemon. I just don't see a world where he gets to LA and they don't draft Jordan Tyson. I think that that's the fall for him. If he goes and he falls down to LA, number one, you get to add him and allow him to be your number three receiver at least for a year until, you know what I'm saying, until you move on, you know, from, you know, from your age veterans and then he he pops into a number two role next to Puka Nool who we know is more of the wet works guy and now you got, you know, Jordan Tyson to do all of the other stuff. Like I think there's no better landing spot for him than that if he's going to fall. I I just think at that point they're willing to take the to take the chance because they don't need him. Like they don't need him right now. They they can move the ball without him. They'll put another couple tight ends on the on the field and let it happen. So because of that for me, this is one I might stay away from. But I agree with you. Yeah. If I if I do put the money put my money somewhere, I'm going to invest in Mai Lemon and I'm not necessarily like you said, I'm not necessarily betting on Mai Lemon. I'm betting that NFL teams are not sold on Jordan Tyson's health. And if that's the case, then if you don't take him above, if you don't take him above, you know, Carnell Tate, or if more than two or three, maybe four or five slots go by and you don't take him, then that means teams are like, we don't believe in him in the first round, they're going to just let him fall possibly all the way to the end of the first round, maybe even into the beginning of the second round. So, I think that that's one of those where you can find the value um in just staying away and then possibly during draft night when you see things happening, you might like, yeah, you might flip and and if it becomes where the value seems like Tyson gets a little bit more juice for the squeeze, okay, cool. Now, I might bet Jordan Tyson to be a first round draft pick instead of going with the matchup because the more he drops, the higher his or the lower his percentage is going to go, which means the more money you can make off of it if you invest in it. And there's the cash out perspective. So, if you take Mai Limit right now, the more than 5x his money you get to draft night that Jordan Tyson slide happens, you can actually sell your stock at that point, maybe make 3x instead of five. You still get some value there. And about the Rams, if they do take Lemon, that tells you a lot about what's happening with Nua and the health of Devonte Adams as he goes along uh in the season. Yeah, it's really interesting to me like what the deal is with Nua. So, I think that will tell us a lot about what's going on, what they do with that pick. Let's go to the next matchup. this draft matchup, Caleb DS versus Ruben Bane. It's an interesting It's an interesting pairing because both of these guys early on in the process, CJ, they were people were saying that these might be two of the best prospects in the draft. And as the as we've begun to overthink everything, we've seen them kind of become less and less invogue with draft nicks, right? Number one, I want to I want to hear your your perspective on Caleb DS, but also I want you to tell tell me which one you think as far as the draft goes, who goes off the board first. So, I'm just going to let you all know Bane and and DS. Well, Downs and Bane are my number four and five prospects, respectively, right? So, I got them both in my top five. As far as Downs, there's a lot of conversation. We'll start with the knee. Let's get that out of the way. The degenerative knee thing, if everyone's not telling me or if it didn't follow him from Alabama and Ohio State, it sounds like Lion season to me. Number two, people were like, "He doesn't have the ceiling in some people." Yeah, but that floor is pretty dogone good. That floor is Pro Bowl. I'm taking a guy who is a short thing. I count him to Jesse Bates because of his style of play. But here's what I'm gonna say about this particular because it's less than two times your money for downs and it's just over two times for Bane. Would I stay away? Yes. But if I have to bet, it's going to be Bane because I look at it like this. Every time we get a player like Caleb DS, he slides. Every time we had Kyle Hamilton, these guys always slide because they're thought of as a secondary player. Not just because they play in the secondary, but off ball linebackers the same way. Pass rushers are invogue. Pass rushers get the most money. So, you want that rookie deal that's going to save you from having to overpay. Bane is going to go over downs. And I'm willing to put a decent amount of money on that. Yeah, I think this is the one if I'm looking if I'm looking to double my money, if I'm looking to double up, this is the one that I'm like, okay, I'm I'm rolling right here. Like, I feel good about I feel good about Arvel Reese. By the way, as we're talking, I'm looking. He He's trading at 2.89x. It's getting close to three. If it gets I mean, if it gets to three, I got to just shove money on it, right? Like, if it gets to three, I just got to go all in, right? But, um, with with Ruben Bane, it it feels to me as if number one, our good friend Terron Davenport writes for the the Tennessee Titans. The word is that the Titans love Ruben Bane. And I know that there's a lot of talk about Jeremiah Love and and how Jeremiah Love is is all of this, but if the draft falls like I think it's going to fall, which is um you know, Fernandez won, right? Mendoza or I mean Mendoza. Fernandez, hell my brain at Mendoza number one. Um um Arll Reese number two, David Bailey three. Number four right there is the guy that you've been in love with. You didn't think he was going to be there early in the draft process because people were saying that he was going to go too to the Jets. And so now you're here. You got a chance to get that guy to put next to Jeffrey Simmons, a hard-nosed athletic dude. Now you put another hard-nosed athletic dude on the edge and I think you got something cooking in Tennessee. Ah, I mean, defensive-minded head coach, right? Like, I think that this is a we we we went offense in the in the in the um in free agency, right? We went offense in free agency. Why? We added a center. We added a tight end. We added a wide receiver. Why? Because we're going defense in the draft. And that's why I think you end up with Ruben Bane at four to Tennessee, which is going to be before anybody takes Caleb DS. Yeah. And again, Caleb DS feels like unfortunately he's number two on the board at every one of those slotted positions, even with Washington where if Love is on the board and it's downs, they're going to take Love. Yep. Yep. and and they would be right too, especially when you think about who their quarterback is and how that dynamic could work when you got these two absolute jet speed engines right next to each other. Like that would be crazy. Let's look at one more and we're going to get on up out of here. All right, this one. Carnell Tate versus Francis Maui Noah. This is an interesting pairing because we're talking about two offensive guys. And then the question becomes, do you lean towards the skill guy or do you lean towards the beef? And it feels to me, you can correct me if I'm wrong if you think different. It just feels to me like the beef has been getting like disrespected in this draft. like they just haven't been like we've been talking a lot about everybody but these offensive linemen and and these and these big guys that are that are on the in the trenches and you and I both know that when when real bullets start flying these are the guys they're going to be looking at to make like high impact. So right now draft matchup Carnell Tate um trading at 63% Francis Maui Noah trading at 37%. Which way which way are you leaning? Where would you put your money and invest in? So [snorts] I'll make this one quick. Offensive line. I usually don't take them in the top 10 on a personal level if I was a GM, but I have to look at who's selecting and why with what they're trying to do. You've seen they've tried to fill the offensive line in the the process with Zane uh Johnson. They tried to get uh Elden Jenkins. I think they go with Mario Noah for one major reason. They want the flexibility to be able to run their entire complement of the offense. And having a later first round pick, you know, from the trade with Jacksonville, there's enough depth at that wide receiver position where you can go get a guy like Denzel Boston. Heck, maybe Jordan Tyson falls and you have a true X receiver versus getting Tate at six, which just to me feels a little rich for a guy who's talented, but he's not a game record game changer wide receiver like a Jamar Chase. Yeah, that I mean I don't I I've been on record as saying that the only person I think um has that elite wide receiver one ability is Jordan Tyson. Correct. Like and that's just in my opinion. But I do think Carnell Tate offers the highest floor of any wide receiver in this in this draft class because he's used to playing the role that he is most likely going to have to play in the NFL. He's been a wide receiver three and he's been a high-end wide receiver three. He's been a wide receiver too because he's had to because he plays with an alien over there in Ohio State, right? like he understands how to be the second and third fiddle and how to find his role, find his niche and improve. Do I think he's a wide receiver one? I don't necessarily think he's your set it and forget it. It it reminds me a lot of of um T. Higgins, right? Like is T. Higgins a real legitimate wide receiver one or does he just look that good because Chase is over there, right? like I don't know but I like it. Like I don't know but I like it. So um just from a a football standpoint I I love what Carnell Tate does but if I believe Maui Noah is going to be the first offensive lineman off the board even though I think um Anane is the best offensive lineman in this draft the the guard from Penn State. If if Maui Nova is going to be the number one offensive lineman off this draft, I got to think he's coming off the board before Carnell Tate. Unless somebody's going to reach, unless somebody's just going to go and snatch him in that top five, I don't necessarily see that happening unless the Titans decide they want to do it, which would make no sense. Unless the the the the Giants want to do it, which I guess makes some sense except they just went out and signed like four wide receivers in free agency. So, I I think that Maui Noah makes the most sense and he gives you the most value at 37% um you know, two and a half um x on your money. Yeah. And you also have to look at the coach that they brought in. I think the coach that they brought in actually wants to build that offensive line out, have the stability there for their current quarterback, their starting day one quarterback, uh Shador Sanders, no matter what you all want to think about that. And then they'll build a wide receiver core a little bit later with the draft capital that they have present. Yeah, I would not be surprised for to watch to see the Browns go and get an offensive lineman. I also wouldn't be surprised to go and see him go grab Carell Tate. I think with one of cuz they have two first round draft picks. They're getting an offensive lineman with one of those draft picks, right? It just is it going to happen early or is it going to happen later in the first round? It'll be interesting to watch. I think it's Maui Noah. I think that would be a great call. Um, and regardless of what people think about Sher Sanders, I think he's great and I'm looking forward to seeing him with a full camp under when people are actually considering him to be the guy and and giving him a real opportunity and allowing him to gain some type of rep like some type of, you know, um, chemistry with his receivers and with his offensive line and and and the whole nine. And he's wearing number two. He ain't gonna be in that stank number 12 anymore. It ain't even look right on my guy. Like get my guy back to number two. Like, let him go and do what he does best. Single digits all day. Single digits all day. Them twelves look stank out there, man. I don't care what Tom Brady did in the league, he still looks stank out there with that 12 on. So, um, or obviously, you know, there's always the, well, if you're good enough, every number looks good. So [laughter] that's why that's why you had dudes out there back in the day with like 67 on as the running back. You like what are you doing? Like I mean Ronnie L made 42 look legit. Made 42 made people actually want to go out and put a 42 on. That's so stanky, man. [laughter] Hey ladies and gentlemen, um as always, make sure you go over to the sevenoracles.com. Check out everything we're doing. We're going to have a a big blowout for the um NFL draft. Um we'll we'll be live streaming David Pearllof um you know from from from Dan Patrick's show um fame will be joining us we'll be live you'll see a lot of us popping in popping out um and giving our giving our our thoughts on the draft live and in person and all that jazz but make sure that you go to the you like I we've seen some of the numbers right you guys are watching like some of our like some of our reels were getting 15 and 1700 views It's not you watching five and six time. It's a lot of you out there. Go ahead and hit that subscribe button. We're trying to get this thing grown out, right? Hit the subscribe button over there on YouTube. Go over to the sevenoracles.com. Look at all of the all of the tools that we have over there. Look at the newsletter. Become a subscriber there and we appreciate it. Make sure that you check out all of the position rankings videos for my guy Chris James. Chopping it up with CJ. You can find it wherever you get your DSPs from. Um CJ, you said that um Arll Reese was your number two guy. Yep. It Who's your number one? Is it Love? It is Jeremiah Love based on the the ranking. Yes. Based on the rating. So Jeremiah Love is his number number one overall. Arll Reese is two. I believe I have Reese two and love one in my rankings. I could be wrong. I might have I might have love one and Reese two. Who knows it it I if it it it flips for me every day though. Um but definitely go out and check. He is super thorough when it comes to his rankings and that's why they have just dropped because you know these things should take time. You shouldn't be rushed and now you got all the information in front of you to help you make an informed decision and then just know some of these guys better when you're talking to people around the water cooler. Right. So that's always good. um for for Chris James at CJF Florida9. I'm Coach Jean Clemens at Jean Clemens. Until next time, y'all have a great one.