Fade the Field Ep. 5

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another episode of Fade the Field, a seven oracles production. I'm your Oracle Roomula, aka Coach Jean Clemens, joined as always with my guy CJ Chris James. How are you doing today, M? I'm making it happen. uh button up against tax day. So, I'm glad to be on here to take a little breather from that. How about yourself? Hey, listen. Listen. As you you know, as as as subcontract as a subcontractor, you know, when you when you when you find that bill is due, they're coming for doesn't matter what the, you know, how you finagled it, what what you've done all year, you're just like, h this day extracts a heavy toll, you know, and so as as many people out there are looking for a little relief and and and you know, um maybe even trying to add to their portfolio to be able to to to procure, you know, some of these taxes a little bit easier, you're in the right place. You're in good hands. Um it it's it's it's a great day because we've got we've got um NBA playoff basketball starting tonight. The playin games um begin and um I I think it's really interesting because there are several different storylines from teams that are in the playin game and and I'm interested to see what you think about it. So, you know, without further ado, let's let's just get started um with with what should be a really exciting, you know, um discussion about the playing games. And and first off is which playing team do you like to move into the playoffs? remember that these teams are not necessarily in the playoffs. They are in the playin games and and with that they are um trying to fight to see who's going to go up against the second seed and the first seed. Congratulations, you made it. Now you get to get beat by the Thunder um and and and all that jazz. So um who who do you like out of this group right now? you know, the team that had a guy who's playing at, you know, first team allNBA level early in the season. They get back a guy who's been a perennial all all-star and they still have in their back pocket and unfortunately often injured but still available uh former MVP. They only have to win one game at home. I like the 76ers to advance be that seven seed team. It just feels like they're in a situation and an opportunity playing a couple of days from well tomorrow where they've been there. They've done it before. The rake on it, if you were to invest, is not something that's going to break the bank. It's almost one to one, but I think it's like one 1.48 to advance that type of scenario. Get it right now, pick it up, and you get a team that knows what they're doing that can get into the the playoffs and then uh probably have Boston snack around a little bit. Yeah. No, I and I like I like that. And and you know, you want to you want to look at a a market like this as you would look at like a um you know, like you investing in in Samsung or something, you know, like something that's been a proven entity. You're not going to get a heavy return on your investment, but you are going to get a return. And um you know that's something you have to always you have to always try to make sure that you're doing like you yeah you want to take these swings right you want to take these swings where you can 4x and 5x your money but you have to be able to to piece that with the stuff that you really know is going to bring a return. Like it's almost like a set it and forget it. I think that that Philadelphia falls into that category because we know that when Joel Embiid is right, when he's out there, even if he plays 20 minutes, his 20 minutes might get you 50 points and and 15 rebounds. Like, he's that good. Like, he's that talented. And um you know, Paul Paul George coming back seeming seemingly fine in his stride, everybody getting healthy at the same time. And VJ Edgecom now having a full, you know, a full 82 game season under his belt. Correct. To now not be a rookie anymore, right? Like, hey, you're not a rookie anymore. Now you're this is a second your second season on what do you do there? Um, I I'm I'll tell you one that I like that I think is a you know, one that that that people have kind of talked about, but I don't think have have really given or put the amount of um like like like love on Charlotte Hornets, man. They've been playing. They've been balling and they're so crazy, right? This is why I like them. They're literally like eight deep with double-digit scorers a game. You're going up against a Miami Heat team that struggles to score the ball. And and more importantly, they struggle to score the ball because some of their nuclear pieces like a guy like Tyler Herro still coming back from injury. We don't know what he's going to be like. And so now you get this this home team who's fully loaded. They've got to win two to get in. But that's why the, you know, that's why the the market is a little bit better. You can get a better return on your investment for the Hornets. And that's why I like the shrink here. I like the the Hornets call from a straight up perspective against the Heat. In fact, that line has already moved. But I like that little side. Let's say the 76ers lose that game at home. Guess what? They got to go play that Charlotte Hornets team. And now, uh, that lemon gets in there when it comes to a young team versus a team that's been there before late in the fourth quarter. So, let's see how that plays out if those two teams match up. Yeah. I love the over anything that the Hornets are attached to. Yeah. Um because they shoot the three ball like it's going out of style. They don't play the greatest defense. And and you're right, if they if they do take out the the Heat and they have to play Philly, they've got no answer for Joel Embiid inside. They've got no answer for um they've got no answer for Bam inside. So, if you got no answer for Bam, you got no answer for Joel Embiid at all. Yeah. So, um, you know, again, Philadelphia, a a great look at. You've got the Hornets and where they sit versus the Heat tonight. That's something I'm looking at. Definitely the Hornets and the over on that. I would look to to to double up that investment. Let's let's let's check out the next one. And and right here, like Denver, Minnesota, this is a great matchup. We're talking about first round matchups here. First round matchups. Denver and Minnesota face off again. Denver always feels like a team who with with with a guy like with Jokic who can't be stopped, but Minnesota has been able to solve the problem um in the playoffs. Um what do you think about this, especially this as a first round matchup this year? This feels like a matchup Denver didn't want to get, not because they can't win the series, but because this could be an extended series. I feel like Denver does pull it out. They made some trades that made sense before the season. You know, Brandon Cam Johnson instead of Michael Porter Jr., you get healthier at a position. And even though you may lose a little bit of the offense, you gain just in the overall perspective of the player. And Gordon's health has been fairly uh reasonable this particular season. They're going in strong. They've won all the games in a row. I think what 11 or 12 in a row. They're a fully formed unit. And I feel like Minnesota can sneak one, maybe two from them. But give me Denver winning and I'll make it safe in a six game series. So you like Denver winning four to two? That's that's trading that 26%. Um that's that's 4.98 um extra money. And if you want make sure you go over to the sevenoracles.com check out our tools and over there on the tools if you're ever if you're ever wondering especially if you play on if you play on Koshi, right? You can go over there to um our our probability converter um and and when you look at it, we call it the Koshi converter, right? And you go in, you put the cents in and it gives you out the American odds. So like like for instance, if we're talking about um you know, Denver winning 4-2 and it's it's 26%, right? that's going to be a plus 285 in your American eyes. If that makes it easier for you to um to understand, you want to go over and do that. Check that out over at the sevenoracles.com and all of our tools that we have we have developed over there to help you better understand this prediction market and how it transition from traditional sports betting into what we're doing here with these markets. Um, I like that call. I will say this to me is a great opportunity to sprinkle a little something on a Minnesota 4-3 like seven game series win, right? Because you're going to get 9x 9 plus extra money. This is a team that knows how to get it done. they they've been there before and and I think that there's something to be said about that superstar um that superstar aura that Anthony Edwards seems to have that that says, "Hey, it's going to just take a lot to beat me. You know, it's going to take a lot for you to beat me." And I think if they can get off to a hot start, maybe steal one early, you could see this one go deep into the into the rounds. if they into the round. And if they do, I could see Minnesota stealing it with a 4-3, you know, with a 4-3 overall series victory. Yeah. No, I mean, that's a good call, especially from the perspective that they've done it before, right? They did it two seasons ago and won that what in seven. So, they've done it before. The only counter I'll put to that is I think they're going to make Ant do everything, wear himself out while they kind of conserve energy and by the seven game, what Ant legs do we have left? because he's doing all the work compared to Denver spreading the wealth. You're right. If if Ant has to guard Jamal Murray and he has to be the the offensive force, it's just it's just going to be too much. There's only so much that your body can do, right? Bingo. Yeah. No, I'm I'm with you. That makes it more difficult. That's why I'm with you. I'm I'm more leaning towards the Denver side, but I will be sprinkling a little something and making a small little investment over there on that Minnesota 43 um you know, exact series win. Let's take a look at the next one. Who wins? Houston versus LA. And we're talking about the Houston Rockets, the LA Lakers. LA the last two times, I believe the last two times they played the regular season, LA was able to win both of those games. Um they did it using um a philosophy that I'm not sure they're going to be able to do in the playoffs, but I'm sure they'll try it. They they every time Kevin Durant got the ball, they just double team Kevin Durant and and Ke made Kevin Durant try to find someone else to throw the ball to him because Houston doesn't shoot the ball as well um from the perimeter. They had a lot of success there. Now, how does that change with Sangon back and and and will he be able to be the other ball handler for them? More that remains to be seen. What do you think about this about this matchup? I feel terrible about this because we're asking a 41-year-old man who is still excellent at what he does to do a lot. And I feel like Houston's going to deploy this approach because we know how Udoka feels about when you have one player playing him, they're going to pick LeBron up the entire time he's in the game, 94 feet. They're going to try to wear him out, beat him up, make him do a lot of things. and they have a lot of young bodies to throw at him. On the opposite side, I think they actually take Kevin Durant off the court more often. Giving him minutes that are crucial, end of quarters, things like that, because he can knock down those shots and in between they'll run more to try to wear LA out. That's the unfortunate thing. LeBron keeps him in it, but I don't know how many games he gets him. It might be zero. I I think the interesting part was that is that Houston would look completely different if Fred Van Fleet was not injured. that I think this is a this is a they would be making the run that the that the that the San Antonio Spurs are on if they had an actual real legitimate point guard to go with this ungodly lymph that they have out there. I I agree with you. Make life miserable for LeBron. Throw all of the 69 and 610 and 68 like defenders that we have. Just keep throwing them at body after body after body. The interesting part is, can LeBron turn back the clock for two games? If he can turn back the clock for two games and you get AR-15 back and you get a a a you know um I won't say 100% healthy, right? But if you get um a Luca Donuch back and now they can go back to what they were doing when they kind of had it had the mojo working and LeBron had stepped back to be kind of the third the the the the ultimate third option. They're going to give Houston problems. But it's only if LeBron can steal them too and he can turn the clock back. If there's anybody if there's ever been a guy that I could believe has the opportunity to do it, I would say LeBron. I think this is going to be a tough a tough hill to climb for them. I I like Houston. I think Houston 42 if you if I'm being conservative with it. 4-1 if I think they just get him out of there like a good, you know, gentleman sweep. Yeah, it it to your point, it depends on the health that's related to Austin Reeves because if they're able to get him back after the first two games, let's say as an example, because I don't think they're getting Luca back. I just that's just me. Okay. If they can get Reeves back, I think they can go 4-1. The unfortunate portion is game one dictates if you have them in a sweep. I I do a little sprinkle both ways because I think it's either a gentleman sweep or a true sweep and it'll be dictated on how they come out in that first game and they approach things against LeBron James. Yeah. I just think somewhere along the line LeBron's going to find one. I just don't know if he can find two. if he can find two and and get like buy them some time, right? Buy them an extra few games to get themselves right and you can get at least AR-15 back, maybe even Luca back, I think that they have a chance to to make this interesting, but it's going to be tough. Like this is this is unfortunate because LA was trending towards the number two seed and then those guys got hurt and like they just started they started dropping games cuz they just it's LeBron out there by himself. You know what do you do? Let's take let's take a look at the next one. Who wins? New York versus Atlanta. This one I think is interesting because like this is going to get the New York Knicks blown up. If they don't take care of business versus Atlanta, this is going to get new New York blown up because Atlanta is full of a bunch of dudes, right, that nobody would say is a star but whom everybody would want on their team, if that makes sense. Like a bunch of guy like everybody outside of Golden State for whatever reason would love to have Jonathan Kaminga on their team. Everybody wants a Kaminga and and and you know there's a bunch of those dudes in Atlanta. Where do you see this one falling? What do you like in the in the matchup? Um who do you think comes out of this? So let me go ahead and say this. If you're going to put money anywhere, it's going on Atlanta period. I'm putting Atlanta there for 42 or 4-3 and winning this series. I think they're going to force New York into a stress situation. They're going to beat up Jaylen Brunson a little bit, which everyone tries to do. But hey, I think that they're going to do a good job with it. This is a long team that gets out and runs. They can play defense when they want to. And I think they just give them problems. And they're going to let Carl Anthony Towns do Carl Anthony Towns things. And what do I mean by that? He's going to score. He might get a rebound or two, but he's probably going to have too many turnovers because they're going to force him to be the dictator of the game and try to keep the ball away from Jaylen Brunson as much as possible. I I think what they what they do is what I would do is is turn Carl Anthony Towns into a jump shooter. Make him fall in love with the the the three. Make him fall in love with shooting the deep ball. And and if they do that, which I believe they can, he'll just he'll shoot his team out of the game. Like he he doesn't know how to help himself. He he can't read that. Oh, I have so many of these wide openen threes because they want me to have these wide openen threes and and and go, well, if I just go down and abuse them inside, then I actually help our team. He won't do that. The the post player for the Knicks is Jaylen Brunson, and that's the problem. Like, that's the problem because they have length enough to to bother shots. Brunson's still going to get his, but it's going to be an inefficient his. and then Carl Anthony Towns out there shooting eight to 12 three-pointers a game. That's just not going to help anybody. Um if they don't get it done, they're going to tear up this whole brotherhood thing and and and you'll see guys on the on the move. Um because it'll be proof of concept. If we can't beat Atlanta, we can't beat Boston. If we can't beat Atlanta, we can't beat anybody that we're going to face on the Western Conference side. Yeah. No, the construction of the team, especially with what they gave away from Mikuel Bridges, just didn't make a lot of sense, especially from a physicality standpoint. Plays really good D on the wing. Problem is doesn't take contact on offense. Carlin three Towns takes contact, but then overexaggerates it. Jaylen Brunson takes contact, but he is small, more dimminionative than some of the other guys. So, it's just the roster construction is weird. They can't blow it up yet, but they're going to have to if they can't get it past in Atlanta because Atlanta's ascending while New York is stagnant or reverted. Yeah. And and you've got to think Atlanta's ascending. Washington has positioned themselves with a bunch of really like nice young talent and some veterans that are good that they just said, "Hey, you know what? Chill. We'll get back to you in 2026." I think if they if they have the right mixture, they could be a problem in in 2027. Orlando is ascending. Boston's not going anywhere. Where does, you know, where does Giannis end up? Is he still in Milwaukee? Is he in New York? Right. Like, right. Those are some of the questions. But, um, I'm I'm with you. I like Atlanta. Um, I would say Atlanta 42. Um, real nice. you know, you know, six 6.73x. Um, Atlanta 43 at 788.85x. Um, really great value on your money if you think that the Hawks are going to pull the upset. Let's check out the last one of our first round matchups. And this one, who wins, Cleveland Cavaliers or the Toronto Raptors? This is interesting, um, CJ, because like Cleveland looks different with James Harden. Toronto just seems to keep finding these various amalgamations of we're going to put a lineup out there with all a whole bunch of 68, 69 guys and just see if we can, you know, just position. ball you to death. Um, what what do you like in this one? So, this is one of the few times I'm going to say this, steer clear. This is not a series that you're going to make a lot of money on in my opinion. Reason being, I don't think Toronto can score with Cleveland. So, it's one of those if Cleveland has an offshooting night, which is possible because they have shorter jump shooters, then yes, they can lose a game. But, this is a 404-1 series. Pick your poison, but the rake isn't there. You tell me if I'm wrong. I think it's like uh 1.46 or something like that and 1.8 you're not getting which basically means if you put up you know 100 you're getting 180 back you're not getting a lot of catch for either of those things. So this is one of the few steer clears where you can't really make money in my opinion unless you think Toronto and having all of that length that they have just a bunch of wing players out there can really give fits to Cleveland and not allow them to score. Yeah, I think this is one that that I favor Cleveland in in from the standpoint that James Harden doesn't have to be the closer. Like that's the you're not you're not relying on James Harden to bring it home for you. We don't have to worry about him getting fatigued. We don't have to worry about him having like run into issues with with with James Harden. biggest issue he's had is that when they've needed him most in the clutch, he's come up small because he's the dude. Well, guess what? Donovan Mitchell don't need you to be the dude, my guy. Donovan Mitchell has been telling people his entire life, "Hey, I'm him." And he's he's proven it time after time again when he's been given the opportunity. The problem is he just hasn't had the opportunity as much. So now you have a guy like James Harden who can set the table and then you've got a guy like Donovan Mitchell who can clear it. And I just think in between that with the bigs that they have to be able to, you know, to to to to make things a little more difficult inside the paint, it's going to be too much for Toronto to handle. Um, do I think that they do I think that they sweep them? I'm not sure. I would probably lean towards a 4-1 gentleman sweep here because I just always feel like, you know, these types of teams like like like like Toronto just find a way to get one. But um it just for for for for what you're talking about, if you're talking about an exact score right now, I'm looking at it on Koshi, an exact score of 4 to one is is trading at 3.18x. So, okay. Um not bad. Not bad. That's two to one on your money, you know, and and and and you know, your your your your dollar or your unit brings back three units. So, like, not bad at all as far as your as your investment. So, I would probably go there. I maybe even the gentleman's week, watch the lines. You got a couple days, right? Um game one isn't until Saturday. Watch the lines. See how the lines move. See how the markets move. see where the where the best investment is and if it's just hey take this easy money of Cleveland to win period take that easy money and then look for the market to flip that on and invest in in round two. Yeah. And there's always the option you've made the point this is like the stock market. So, if there's an early eject where you feel, you know, let's say the series is 3 30 3 0 and all of a sudden it's 3-1 and you say I could hold on or I could early eject if it makes a lot of sense where you make a little money. Look to those options as well. You always have the opportunity up until the last game. Absolutely. That's that's great advice. remember unlike well I mean in in some in some instances in sports betting now they're giving you early like you know an early payout but a lot of times they're just trying to keep you from getting in their pocket. So they're like, "Hey, take this little bit of money instead of that big money you can win on the end." But in these, remember, you're not playing against the house. You are investing with other people. So it's what they want to buy for. It's what they want to buy it for. You set that market price. You get an opportunity to be able to cash out. So um um great things. Who do you who do you think is the the the first round star of of the of the NBA finals? I mean, NBA playoffs. Who do you think in the first round everyone's going to be talking about, "Wow, look at that performance." So, we have the normal names that we know about, but I'm actually going to go with a series that we both predicted as an upset, Jaylen Johnson from Atlanta, where you see him put buckets in, play good defense, have a filled up stat sheet, and then people will understand why he was in conversation to be second team all all NBA, that type of thing where she's probably going to land somewhere in there. And now we have a new household name for people to know about compared to, you know, the Ant Edwards and the Nicola Joices who are probably going to ball out anyway. Yeah. And and and just just a quick aside because I'm not the biggest LaMelo Ball fan. I think he cares a lot more about other things than winning sometimes. But if they're able to pull off the the win, beat the Heat, right? then beat the the Sixers and get into the tournament, they're going to be talking about LaMelo Ball. Like, cuz the only way it happens is if he has a LaMelo Ball type of performance where he's he's getting to his his his 20 point average, but he's also got eight or nine assists, 10 assist, you know, he he's getting on the boards. He's he's dictating the pace. I think he can be a guy who could be a breakout star, especially in a series where, yes, the other team plays really good defense. They're going to try to beat you up. But what Kate Cunningham is going to actually be there in that series, if they don't have that type of player, I think Charlotte can make it a series and shoot the heck out of the ball and give Detroit problems because of how many scores they do have. Absolutely. Um, ladies and gentlemen, like we we're excited about the playoffs. This is a great time of year. It's a great time to make some good investments. Make sure you go over to the seven7oracles.com. Check out everything we're going doing over there. Make sure you go and follow the newsletter right at Substack. Go hit that Substack. Follow the newsletter over there. Get all of our musings as as we as we discuss. I just dropped the UEFA um Champions League quarterfinals piece. Um go check that out. Um people are talking about the you know the war in I the war in Iran over there right now. We're talking about gas prices. We're talking about the weather. You can find it all over there. And definitely you want to check out that that tool that Kowi probability converter over at the sevenoracles.com. We've got free tools and then you can always subscribe and you know get that pro version and you know how it goes when you get the pro version. You get that that uptick in in performance. So definitely go check that out. Make sure you're you're you're you're subbing over here on YouTube and checking out everything we're doing over here on YouTube. CJ, tell everybody where they can listen more to you, where they can find you and follow you at. So, we had a discussion about basketball today, but I'm still in the football mode. You can find my football podcast, and it's usually four days a week. It's called Chopping It Up with CJ. Right now, I'm going through my positional rankings for the 2026 NFL draft. I'll also be doing things on each of your favorite NFL teams once the draft is done, construction, how they look, where they get into. And you can find me on other entities and places like that as we go through the entire draft season, etc. But you can find it on Spotify, Apple Pod, or any place you get your favorite uh podcast for free. Yeah. And and as always, you can find me at Jean Clemens everywhere on social media. Um the Coach Jean Clemens YouTube channel. um fantasy life where you do all the fantasy where I do all my fantasy stuff at New York Giants on SI where you can see me write about the New York Giants and catch the Giants um a Giant issue podcast on YouTube on the New York Giants on SI YouTube channel and make sure you're back here next Tuesday, same bat time, same bat channel. Until next time for CJ Chris James, I am Coach Jean Clemens. You all be best.