Fade the Field Ep. 3

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Fade the Field, a seven oracles original. I am your Oracle Arumula aka Coach Jean Clemens here with you again. Chris James, CJ, he's not with us today. He's handling business out there. So, I'm holding it down. He'll be back next week hopefully, God willing. You know, that's how that's how it always goes. Um, make sure that you go over to predictionmarketpicks.com. That's where you can see all of the seven oracles content. That is our site where you need to come and and and sub and do all the good stuff with. That's prediction markets pick. Make sure you're going over to the newsletter and check out the newsletter. You know what? You should check out the newsletter because on that newsletter I talked about the Los Angeles Lakers making a late season run to get over a certain win total. And at the time a lot of people thought I was capping. But if you look what they've been doing, they're inching closer and closer and closer. I would talk more about it, but we've got an action-packed um day today talking about college basketball. I don't want to I don't want to hold it up, but you should go over to the Substack, subscribe to the newsletter so you could get that every single day and check out that check out that newsletter that I wrote that had the Lakers in there. I appreciate it. Without further ado, let's get started with our questions today. And the first question is is simple. Who's the next head basketball coach at UNCC? Currently, right? Currently, the head basketball coach at UNCC is open and a lot of people have been talking about who's going to be the next head basketball coach at UNCC. a lot of the names that we're hearing so far. Um, trading Billy Donovan leads the way. He is trading at 45%. That's um 1.93 um x your your money. That means you're getting 93 cents on your dollar. Um if you decide to go that way, Tommy Lloyd, the the head coach of Arizona is um trading at 33%. That is 2.89x. That's exactly um $189 for every dollar that you invest. Ben Mllum, Ben McCllum, the head coach at Iowa, is trading at 18.7x or 5%. Dusty May at 13.4x. And that's where I want to stop at because Tommy Lloyd for Arizona and Dusty May for Michigan, they both play each other, right? They both play each other. And it could be if if the rumors are correct, right? If the rumors are correct, there could we could be looking at the next head coach of the North Carolina Tar Hills in that game going up against each other. the guy that loses could be the guy who ends up as the next head coach at North Carolina. Well, I know a lot of you are probably thinking yourself, well, why would somebody leave their school to go to North Carolina if they're already just one step away from a championship? And here's why. For as much as Arizona is a basketball school, as much as Arizona has had a ton of success in basketball, they're not a basketball blueb bloodood. They're not a basketball blueb bloodood. Um I I've talked about this with a a a friend of mine who passed away. Um the legendary coach Whitour who I used to do Zebra Stripes podcast with. And in there, we talked about the teams that are just the next tier underneath. And that's where I think we we put Arizona at the the the new one of the new blueb bloodoods, right? But it's not a blueb blood program. It's also it's also hard to compete out there in, you know, in the West Coast with everything else that's going on on the West Coast. North Carolina, there's only one thing going on, baby, and that's basketball. They don't care about them football teams like that. They don't care about all of that other stuff. They care about basketball and basketball only. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tommy Lloyd decide, hey, you know what? Arizona is great, but I need to move somewhere where it's going to be basketball and basketball only, and I don't have to fight for on competition. I don't have to fight for attention all the time. I can just go out and do my thing. I think that's something that gets um undervalued a lot. And for Dusty May, it just makes sense. Michigan is a football school. Doesn't matter how much you have it popping in basketball. You remember the Fab Five? The Fab Five was all the rage. They had the world in a headlock and yet still everything was basketball for them. So, I would not be surprised if Dusty May decided, hey, you know what? I'm gonna go to North Carolina and I'm gonna ride it out. Here's the thing you have to remember though. Whoever goes to North Carolina, and Kenny Smith talked about that, North Carolina is not a stepping stone job. North Carolina is not a job you get bored with and then you decide you want to go somewhere else, right? North Carolina is the retirement job. North Carolina is the place that you spend the next 20 years at if you don't get fired, right? It's the place you spend the next 20 years at and you retire the next 15 years at and you retire. And so if Dusty May isn't thinking about, hey, I want to be here until I'm in my 60s and retire here, then you don't go to North Carolina. If Tommy Lloyd is not thinking like that, then you don't go to North Carolina. But here here's the problem with Tommy Lloyd. Tommy Lloyd is just not enough juice in it. Dusty May at 13.4x means that you're getting um $12.40 for your dollar. Right. Ben McCollum, the head coach at Iowa, you're getting $17.70 investment for your or return for your dollar if he takes that job. To me, it's worth risking a it's worth risking $10 to possibly get 10x or 12x, excuse me, and 17x your money back. There's no value to me in Billy Donovan when you're getting less than less than your money back. Like less than double or less, excuse me, not even less than double, less than just making your money, right? It there's no there's no value in Tommy Lloyd unless you know that they are absolutely positively for sure getting the job. Then you you you go big. You bet big. You put a thousand units in order to get back 970 units because you're sure. But we're not sure. Nobody knows unless there's inside of trading, right? Nobody knows. So, it's a coin flip. Well, I'm going to flip my coin on the 13.4x or the 18.7x. That's just kind of how it goes. So, I would sprinkle something on Ben McCollum and Dusty May. Dusty May I think would be a great pick because now you are at a school where basketball is top dog. This isn't FAU where nobody really cares about the sports. But if they cared about the sports, they care more about football than they would about basketball. This isn't Michigan where yeah, they care about basketball. They want basketball to be good, but they really want football to be good. That's where everything starts. That's where everything ends. So like I look at both of those jobs and I say, man, if you can get to North Carolina where it's the end all beall, boom, that's the place you retire from. And a guy like Ben McCollum, a guy who has done it at the D2 level, has now been successful at Iowa in his first season. Hey, you might have looked around at Iowa, you say, "Hey, this is a Big 10 school. It's a football school first. It's always going to be a football school first. It doesn't matter how good I do. I want to go to a place where it's basketball and everything else, right? It's basketball and it's everything else. At 18.7, I'm willing to take the I'm willing to roll the dice on that. Let's get to the next question. The next question is, who's the women's NCAA tournament winner? Really? Wow. We just going to get heavy into it right now, huh? Okay. Well, it doesn't. If you think that if you think that Yukon is going to win, then you have to ask yourself, is it worth Is it worth investing in Yukon to win? Well, let's take a look at it. Yukon is 1.60x 61% being traded, right? 1.60x. That means it's 60 cents on your dollar. Are you willing to risk a dollar to get 60 cents? This is the situation where if you are in love with the overwhelming favorite to win it, why not put something heavy on Yukon, a thousand units, because you know you're going to get 600 units back, right? Why not put a thousand units on it because you know you're going to get 600 units back? Like that seems to be the play. The the interesting part about it is they've got two chances to lose. Now they've handled business. They haven't they haven't played South Carolina this year, so we don't know how it's going to go, but they've played Texas and they handled Texas easily. And guess what? Texas has beat um South Carolina twice this year. So, it's it's it's pretty easy to say that if Yukon has to face South Carolina there. It's not like Yukon's not going to be able to handle what South Carolina brings to the table. Can South Carolina beat Yukon? Absolutely. Is it an uphill battle? Absolutely. And that's just the semifinal. They then whoever wins that out of Yukon and South Carolina. Let's say if it's Yukon, they have to then beat Texas again and they have to be able to or they have to be able to defeat UCLA who has the 67 monster out there who's been great all season and who's a quite a bit good dancer. I think that if you believe Yukon is just going to run rough shot over this, then put heavy units on Yukon. invest heavy units on Yukon and and get 60% on the dollar or 60 or or 60 cents on your dollar and reap in that that reward. That makes a lot of sense. I don't I don't know if South Carolina like they have a chance, but it but is it worth it? They're they're trading at 12%. Right? That means you're getting $6.85 for every dollar you invest if they if they win at all. Even if they beat Yukon, they're pro like they might not be the underdog, but they've lost to Texas two out of the three times that they played this year. How can you be confident, right? How can you be confident? So to me, if you were going to bet on anyone other than Yukon, bet on Texas because if you bet on Texas or you bet on UCLA, right? You know that Texas has already beat one of the other teams, maybe the other one. But to me, this is the Yukons to lose. So either you stay away from it all together or you roll with Yukon, you invest in Yukon and you bring back 60 cents on your dollar. Let's go to the next next question. The next question says, "Who wins the College Basketball Crown?" If you don't know, the College Basketball Crown or CBC is a tournament that has been created that is there to um incentivize teams to play postseason ga games other than the NCAA tournament. There's a 500 I believe $500,000 um purse on the line. The winning team I believe gets $4,000 and the losing team or 400,000 and the losing team gets a 100,000 or something like that. Right. There are there are eight teams in this tournament that starts April 1st and goes through the weekend. Oklahoma is the favorite. They are trading at 41%. Baylor is second, trading at 22%. Kraton at 20%. Minnesota at 13%, Stanford at 10%. West Virginia at 8%, Colorado at 4%, and Ruters at 3%. Now, the the cool thing about this is it's in Las Vegas and these players are going to play hard. Why? Because there's cold hard cash involved, right? There's cold hard cash. Uh this isn't money that goes into the program. This is money that goes directly to the NIL for the players. I'm assuming, right? I'm assuming it goes. I who knows what cuz it's always shady Dillings when it comes to college sports, but I'm assuming. So, if that's the case, then everyone is incentivized to play who isn't going to the league. Now, what I would tell you to do is to go through these rosters, see which players are playing, see if there are players that are getting ready for the league, and avoid those teams. avoid those teams because those teams are going to be the ones that get you beat. You want the teams that are going to be locked in and ready to go. I think Baylor at at 4.3 on 1x meaning you get $3.31 for your dollar. Like I think that's a that's a that's a nice that's a nice return, right? Minnesota, I believe they got rid of their basketball coach. Could have. Um, West Virginia, who knows what's going on in West Virginia all the time. Um, Kraton is a team that's always solid, but not their greatest season. Stanford, not really ready this year. Colorado is interesting because Colorado plays a brand of basketball that could catch people off guard. Um, they can get up and down on you. Ruckers always interesting, but I just don't think they've got enough bullets in the gun this year. But Baylor at 4.31 again, $3.31. That was that is where I would invest getting back over um excuse me, getting back almost three and a half to one on my money. I like that for my investment. Oklahoma only getting 1.4, for, you know, a dollar40 cents for every dollar. To me, that's not enough for me to want to invest in that, right? And so, I'm going to go Baylor. Um, Drew's out there. We know he's going to have those guys um playing hard. You know, they're going to play tough defense or at least try to play tough defense. They know how to put the ball in the cup. That is the way that I would go in this tournament. The CBC, I love it. I'm waiting for them to up the money to start getting some of those teams that would possibly take an NIT birth to say, "Man, screw the NIT. We're going to go to the CBC." That's what I want to see. Let's check out the next question. And the question is, who wins the men's NIT? Again, um all of these postseason tournaments are going on right now. Um the men's NIT has been going on for some weeks now. It usually runs concurrent with the NCAA tournament. Um that's the case once again this year. There are only, I believe, four teams left. They're in the semifinals. Um Auburn is the favorite. um 2.14x um trading at 45%, New Mexico trading at 34%. Tulsa trading at 16%. And Illinois State trading at 7%. Um these are the four teams left. Um doesn't matter where you're playing. You could be on Koshi or um on on on Poly Market. Um you could even be on, you know, Robin Hood or or or DraftKings. It doesn't matter, right? You want to find whatever market you could get the best value for and that's where you want to invest. But just looking at these teams right now, it's clear like Auburn should be the favorite. New Mexico should be second because those teams are teams that have been playing um top-notch competition all season. New Mexico better than what you think. The value is how did Illinois State get to the Final Four, right? Like if you're just talking about the um the NIT, you got to be asking yourself the question like, man, what did what did they do? How did they get to the Final Four? What who did they go through? Who did they beat in order to get to the final four? Because that matters, right? That matters. Well, they took out a really good Dayton team, right? They took out a really good Dayton team. A Dayton team that's played hard all season. They beat Wake Forest by three points. Outscored them. Right. again, a Wake Forest team, a 18 win Wake Forest team that was probably close to the to the bubble, right? Like a Dayton team that was a 25 win team. It makes you wonder like watching them beat a Kent State team, a 24- win team by um 21 points, it just makes you wonder with a team like Illinois State and and their roster, right? When you get the opportunity to have Young Legs mixed with some veteran leadership, what does it do for you? They've got um one, two, three, four, four seniors on their team. They've got four juniors on their team. They've got a couple sophomores. And then you sprinkle in four freshmen. Right. That's a that's a nice mix in the gumbo. And then they've got all of these interchangeable parts. 65 guards, 66 guards, 69 forwards. Like nothing crazy. They're playing a game. They got a couple big men, right? They got two 610 people, but like they're playing a game that a lot of these teams haven't seen. When you look at their when you look at their minutes on their roster, they've got um they've got six six players who average over 22 minutes a game. And they got six players who average over 22 minutes a game. They've got five players who average over nine points a game. Like that's that's how you win when you don't have the elite level number one guy. And remember all of these guys, they're playing not just to win the NIT. They're playing so that they can impress somebody who might want to come pluck them away and bring them to a power five, excuse me, power four conference next year. They they they're they're playing so that they could go back to their coach and possibly ask for more NIL money. Like that's what we're seeing. It's an interesting thing. But if you look at it, the 13.4x, remember what I told you. Anytime you're down here, they need they have to win two games in order to win it all. That is when I like to start taking the the shots, right? I think if you want to put some heavy put some heavy investment into Auburn because they're clearly the class, right, of the NIT? Cool. Do they want to win this to jump start? is is is um you know I is are are they is that coaching staff trying to fight to to remain relevant because they didn't have to earn that job. Yeah, that's what they're doing. And so like from there we want to make sure that that's there. But I might put an investment in Auburn, but then also invest a little bit in Illinois cuz $10 is going to bring me a $10 investment is going to bring me back 12.5 on my money. 12.5x on my money. I like that. So, while I think Auburn will win it, there's no money in it unless you're just trying to double up, right? There's money in Illinois State. That's where I would that's where I would invest along with investing in the the top because then I at least make my money back that I invested in the bottom. Let's get to the last question of the day. And to no surprise, the last question of the day, who will win the NCAA tournament? You know, I make sure that you um check out my um make sure you check out the the the newsletter tomorrow. I go a little bit more in depth into the NCAA tournament and the final four teams and and and what I like and and why I like it and what's been going on and why March is always so mad. like we'll talk you you'll see more of that in the you know in in in that regard. But if we're just talking about you know the um the NCAA tournament to me I'm I'm always struck by the obvious, right? I'm always struck by the obvious. There are teams that are playing well, right? There are teams that are playing well. There are teams that that that are playing good enough to win and and and and playing playing well enough to win it all. That's Arizona and Michigan. Both of them have been running rough shot over the competition. Um shout out to Yukon for being miraculously here. Shout out to Illinois for having the everything fall their way so that they can be here. But if we're if we're keeping it a beam, right, if we're being honest, and that's what we should be doing. If we're being honest, neither one of those guys would be the favorite against either Arizona or Michigan. So now we're talking about a dead heat. Both of those teams are trading at 34%. I think it comes down to Arizona and Michigan. Whoever wins that game in the semifinal, that's the team that's winning it all. And I just think that Arizona's too deep. I think that they're going to be able to clip Michigan and then go on to handle whomever ends up there, Illinois or Yukon by double digits. Like, I don't think it'll be close. So, both of those teams trading at 34%. That means you're getting 1.81 or $181 for every dollar you invest. I'm going to tell you the way that I would play these play these markets. I would play them individually, right? I would play them individually. So, I would go over to the Arizona Michigan game, right? Where it's Arizona um minus um 2 and a half, right? And Arizona minus 2 and a half is 2.29x. So, you're getting 1 um 29 return on your on your on your dollar, right? Michigan is um 1.5 you get 1.93 on your either way you're going you're going to be able to get you're going to be able to double up. So whoever you like and I said I like Arizona double up cuz they're deep. they double up and then take where that investment that you doubled up your money with and invest it on Arizona by 10 or by eight or something that is at least three um you know 3 point something x to where you're getting two to one back on your money. You're you're getting $2 for every $1 you invest. So you're walking home at three. That's what that means. That's the way I I would play it. I think Arizona wins it all. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan wins it. Again, that's a coin flip. But what's not a coin flip is whoever gets out of that semiinal, they are winning it all. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining me on Fade the Field. As always, I am Coach Jean Clemens aka Arumula. Make sure that you go over to our newsletter on Substack. Subscribe to the newsletter so you get that every day. and then go over to predictionmarketpicks.com. That is the home of the seven oracles. That is our website where you can see everything. Join in, see our plays of the day. See all of the the the the podcast that we have all in one place. Fade the field. Um you can check it out there. You can check out the antenna there on Thursdays. You can check out our newsletters Monday, Wednesday, Fridays, the play of the day every single morning. And always surprises, surprises, surprises. Come along. I appreciate it. For Fade the Field, Coach, excuse me, Coach Jean Clemens, and my and my co-host, Chris James, CJ, who's not here today. We'll see you all next time.