Fade the Field Ep. 2

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another edition of Fade the Field, a Seven Oracles original. Thank you for joining me. Make sure you follow us all on social media at Seven Oracles. Make sure you go over to YouTube. If you're if you're watching this here on YouTube, give us a follow on YouTube, Seven Oracles. But definitely want to hit that sub stat and become a subscriber. Do it before we start charging y'all a little bit more money. like, "Hey, do it while it's free." That's all I'm going to tell you. Do it while it's free. Um, I'm here as always. This is Fade the Field CJ. That's my boy Chris James. He is here. Um, rocking that Let the Work Speak. I like that. I like that shirt, man. I like that shirt. Um, I I'm really excited. Obviously, this is to me I I've talked about this on on various other platforms before, but for me, we are entering the best time of the year. Um, when it comes to championship sports, I think the best time of the year obviously is when you get that con that that that that convergence of college football, NFL, basketball, hockey, you know, everything kind of all together. But when you're talking about championship time, you get the NCAA tournament that is then men's and women's that's then followed by the beginning of the WNBA season and the in the NBA finals which for me is like oh I'm sorry and hockey. Yeah, sorry. Didn't want to forget about hockey finals. Um, which for me is the NBA Finals might be my my best. I I like it the most because I think when you have a series, it's what makes baseball so great in the postseason. You got a series and, you know, you really get a chance to figure out who's the best when it's not just a oneandone. I love the drama of the one and done and then I love the the way the these things unfold throughout the series. So, you get the best of both worlds in there. Yeah. And the tournament, I mean, the way you structured it, it's funny because the first weekend people love Cinderella. They root for the upsets. Week week week two, there's a level of indifference to upsets and the last weekend downright they hate you want the you want the home run hitters at that point. Yeah. They do not want to see him there. So, you're right. This is a good time. the excitement that comes along with it and how we kind of structure things, especially going to the NBA finals, which obviously we're not talking about right now, things start to get down to nitty-gritty. Those nineman lineups get down to sixman rotations or seven man at most. Yeah. And it's it's interesting, right, because we're not talking about the NBA, but the the NCAA tournament, the conference tournament games, they they spoke a lot. There were a lot of upsets in the conference tournament which just further reinforces that this thing is wide open. Like there is nobody that is in my opinion a they can't be beat type of team, right? Arizona can be beat. Duke can be beat. You know, I I don't think there's a number one seed, you can tell me if I'm wrong. I don't think there's a number one seed out there that you can just go stamp it and and not think that there's a place for them to stumble. No. Two years ago, you had this feeling of inevitability with like a Yukon, right? Last year, you had comfortability. You thought it was like Duke, Florida, Houston. This year, it's like a cliff of 11 or 12 teams that you can truly say could win a national championship. Yeah. And and because of that, right, because of that that that wide swath of teams, it's great for prediction markets, right? It's great. And shout out to all of the people who've gotten up their prediction markets super fast, like DraftKings out there and FanDuel and, you know, like Fanatics. like it it was it was it was Koshi and it was Poly Market and then almost like overnight underdog everybody else just decided boom we're going to get into prediction markets and so it's great that you're getting an opportunity to jump in on the prediction market stuff. Now let's get into these. We're going to look at some futures. We're going to look at some tournament props today. Um, I I would say that if you are looking to um put wagers on people, we're going to talk a little bit about some things that you can do as far as maximizing your um your assets in in in these markets, but the futures market and and and the props that get you further along, those are where you're going to find the bigger odds, right? because you get a chance to have to see your your asset appreciate and maybe be able to cash out earlier than the actual like resolve. So, um that's that's a part of why I like this. I think it's going to be great. So, let's let's get started here with our first question. All right, CJ. The first one is, who is your dark horse to make it to the final four? Which team do you feel has the best opportunity um to make it to the final four that nobody's talking about making it to the final four right now? So, I have a team that's actually flirted with the final four. This coach has brought his team to this level before. They were a one seed I believe not too long ago and they could score in bunches and their odds are ridiculous. A four seed Alabama they're on the side of a bracket with a young team very talented with Duke but they're able to make things happen and they're at a 15.6 times that's roughly a 6% chance 15.6x to make it to the semi-finals. What you want to do in these situations, you don't want to take the quote unquote good money. you want to make a low bet and stretch that money with something that could happen. Again, there's an injury that's occurred on that on that Duke roster. Also, again, young teams, you have a veteran coach with a veteran team that can score in bunches. As long as they're not off on their shooting, Gimme Bama will be a team that can make it to the Final Four. Yeah, and I like that one. They're they're going to have a they're going to have a tough one because obviously they're in the same bracket as Michigan. Um, Michigan one of those teams that that can really really go, but when Alabama's at their zenith, when they're playing at their best, like they can beat anybody, and that's Michigan included. I really like that one. I I'm and and again, you know, um 15 plus X on your money. Like that's a great investment. Um, I like you. I I went with a with one that's going to be challenging because they're in the same bracket as Arizona, but I think Arizona has shown some warts, right? I think Arizona has shown some warts. And so, if I was going to go with someone that had a chance to be like an outlier and get there, I'm going to go with a with a team that's a four seed as well, a team that I think has a a pretty good draw. Um, round two, they're going to face Wisconsin. That'll be a high-scoring game, but I think they have an opportunity to to outscore them. And that's Arkansas. Arkansas um 10.4 on your money, 9% um on on I'm drawing 9% on there. I think that Arkansas, they have a couple of the things that I look for in a team that has a chance to win it all. You got to have great guard play. This is college. This isn't the big the pros. And I could even argue in the pros that you that you need elite guard play. They have it. They have professionals. They have guys who are going to play in the league. They have a coach who's been there, done that. So, he's going to know how to get them get them get them going. And they have the luxury of playing in the SEC, which outside of the Big 10 this year was the most difficult conference to come out of or or to play in. So, I think everything for me says Arkansas's peing at the right time. They have those elements. Who's going to step up and become a star? um 10, like I said, 10x your your your investment. I think that's a great place for a dark horse. And that's a good call from the following perspective. I mean, they just ran the gambit, right? They did just win the SEC championship. So, it's one of those things where it's on their mind. They already feel like they've achieved it. And that's a big deal, especially when you're in a oneanddone situation like these gentlemen are. Yeah. I I think like I said, I think that for for the money, like you're looking for, like you were talking about earlier, you want to be looking for things that are going to bring you back a a hall for a little and then you can watch it progress because if these teams get to the Elite 8, you might have a chance to cash out for 4x 5x your money if you don't want to take the chance of them losing in the Elite 8 and then getting nothing. So you have that opportunity to be able to to to get out if you see that you know those those investments are appreciating before the before you get to the final four. And my misspeak earlier with Duke was actually tied to the other team that I would have as a long shot similar odds 10.4x 9% that's St. John's. So that's where it was tied to. I had them as another possible dark horse. Yeah, they they've got to come through some through some things, but if they get it rolling, they've they've definitely got the the talent and they've got the coaching chops to get there. Um, let's move on to the next let's move on to our next question. All right. So, right here, we're looking at a double-digit seed that can make the Sweet 16. So, we're looking for the value of a team that is that is going to be an underdog, right? A team that's going to be an underdog that we believe has an opportunity to make it to week number two, the Sweet 16. Um, who do you got? Who do you think is a team that has an opportunity as a double digit seed to make it to week two of the tournament? So, this team is actually they just won their third straight conference championship. They play on the line that we always see upsets or we're used to seeing upsets for the last couple of decades in the tournament. And they have an interesting draw and that's MCN State. So, they play Vandy in the first round. They're a 12 seed. You're playing Vandy in the first round, but if they get through Vandy, they play a Nebraska team that's never won a tournament game. They might be happy after winning that first one and get a little tight. You have three guys on that MCNE State team who shoot over 35% from three-point range. And when they get it going as a team, they get it going and they can get on the boards. They're very scrappy team that I think could actually make it to the second weekend. And by the way, just so you know, they're at 18.7x, roughly 5% to make it to the second weekend. That's a really good rate for the lineup that they're going against. Wow. Yeah, that's I mean that says that says a lot too is when when you're talking about those types of those type of numbers. Um I I think it's interesting, right? Because these at first I was looking at the 11 seeds, you know, the ones who have to play the first four in NC State, Texas, SMU, Miami of Ohio. I thought that the 11 seed would be a good place to look um for guys who could who could possibly, you know, find themselves um you know, in a situation to be able to make one of those moves. Um one of those teams are going to have to play BYU. Um, that's going to be a tough one, but one that is doable, right? The other team is going to have to play Tennessee. Again, um, two different styles of games. Tennessee is going to be a little bit more rougher. Um, BYU is going to try to outscore you. They've got a guy who possibly could be the number one overall pick. And AJ Deansa, does he step up and become a star, you know, in in in this situation? And and so I think for for me, I'm looking at it from that perspective of these 11 seeds and I was going to go that way until I saw a team that I don't think anyone is talking about who I believe has a nice not easy but a nice road to get to the Sweet 16. And he is they are in a backyard that you and I both know very well. a place that I call hometown, a place that you've called home um you know before and that is South Florida. I think that South Florida has just enough scoring prowess that they that they're going to they're going to step in and be confident against a Louisville team that's been up and down, right? Louisville at its best, they can they can play with anyone. At their worst, they get beat by teams they have no business losing to. There's no reason why that can't be a thing for South Florida. And if they get past that first one, they're going to play either Michigan State, right, who is a tournament tested type of team with a coaching staff that knows how to get it done, or Michigan State could get upset by a North Dakota State team that if they get on a roll, they they have one of those teams that can make it really difficult for you. They shoot the ball well from the outside. We know that Michigan can sometimes struggle to score outside of their main stars. I think this is one of those ones that if some things break right for South Florida, they could find themselves in week two. And you make a great point about the secondary portion of this. This isn't to win a first game. It's to win both games. You're right. Michigan State is the type of team that could lose that first game. We've seen them do it in the past, especially a team that can outshoot them. They get behind. They like to have a close, grinded out game late. That's their style. But if you have a chance to play that double- digit seed that's maybe shot themselves out, now you get a chance to advance because you're now the top seed at the 11 versus the 14. And South Florida, what have they won, like 12 straight or 12 of their last 13, won the conference championship. That's a good call. The market does kind of agree with you with them being viable because they're at 9.4x your money. Yeah, there's not it's not super it's not super large like you would see a double digit seed. That that's that's giving respect to the fact that they know that South Florida can play with anyone. Um, so I definitely agree there. Let's go on to the next question because we're starting to get into the real nitty-gritty now. All right, in this next, how many number one seeds make the final four? I can tell you right now, um CJ, every year, this to me is one of those ones where like if you can predict how many number one seeds make the final four, that's where the money's at. Because if you can, then you can bet them all the way to the final four. Like you can wager on them. You can um their stocks, their assets, and ride them all the way to the final four and just make money after money after money flipping it because you got that you've got that track right. Yeah. No, and that makes complete sense. If you're going to put some money down, it's basically functioning like a parlay, right? So, you might as well put down on the entities that go with it and see what hits. If you think there's three, put a little money on all four and let the chips fall where they may, right? Um, this one's weird to me because I think we're going to get shocked with this one. I think somehow it's going to end up being three. The safe bets two, right? That's almost every year is two, but I feel like three is going to be awkwardly made this year. Kind of like last year when we ended up with all four. Um, three trading at at almost 3x 28 2.89. Um, 33% there. um two trading at 1.46 representing it being the favorite. Um four teams at 11 um and one team at I'm sorry not um two teams, one team trading at 1.07. That is that is um representing the the favorite. There's no money in that, ladies and gentlemen. So don't even try to bet it cuz you're just going to get your money back. You're not going to get any more. Make sure you understand when they talk about 2x, what they're really saying is you're gonna get one extra money, right? Because if you bet one unit and it's 2x, then you're going to get two units back. If it's 1x, then you're just going to get your money back. Or 1.07, you're get your your one unit and 07 of another unit. So keep that in mind this this year. And I and I haven't seen it, but I'm gonna keep waiting for it to to pop up. I would be interested to see what the zero teams looks like. Like if all of the number one seeds get upset, I would love to see what that number looks like cuz I would be willing to sprinkle something on that. So, you wanna you you want to keep looking at these stocks as they evolve and if or make a you know make a suggestion on it because if none of them if none of them make it that's going to be a windfall for the person that has zero. I'm with you. Two's a safe bet. I could see three. I don't see four because one of the teams that I have making it, they're not a number one seed. So, um, just from what I'm like just from what I'm expecting, I don't foresee a um an all number one seed going in. So, I would probably lean towards three. Um, and if it got to two or one, I'm probably not betting it. But, it's interesting if if you if you will, I know because they they they talk about it. How many number two seeds just off of the top? How many number two seeds could you see possibly making the final four? Well, I actually have a number two seed winning. So, I think two two seeds will probably end up making it. It's one of those situations where I I feel more confident in two seeds to some extent this year than some of the one seeds because again, young talented teams also some injuries that are going alongside of it. Yeah. So, I have I have a two seed winning it as well. I'm starting to think we might actually have the same two seed. Um, which will be fun because we did not like discuss who we were who we were taking before we came on here. We want to keep it organic for you guys to see what we're thinking. We don't want to group share and give you kind of we want to do that on air. Um, interesting enough, I think that there's one two seed that has zero chances of winning it. That's Yukon. Yeah. I just don't think they have the temperament this year. Their coach doesn't have the temperament this year. Yeah. So, well, I'm not going to get into the personal side of what I like to see happen, but to your point, they always felt like they had composure or they used that intensity to their like their actual benefit. Now, it feels like it's a detriment. It's a disadvantage this year cuz they don't know how to control it. Correct. And they're taking they're taking the queue from the head coach. So, because he's out of control, they are out of control. And I think he's been able to kind of keep it more together in the past. We're not seeing that this year. We're down to the last one of the of the show today. Obviously, the big one. Let's check out that. And obviously, it is who will win the NCAA tournament. Like again, I I think we both may have the same one. We both have number two seeds. I was looking over the number two seeds. There's only one that I look at that I think has a chance to win it. Um, the others I think just have a flaw that's going to catch them, you know, at some point. Tell us who is your number two seed that you have winning it all and tell me why it's not Houston. I can't do that. I think we see a national championship rematch. And kind of the deciding factor is they're playing in Houston. I mean, that's one of the weird things that happens in these scenarios, but Houston's path kind of favors them. They get St. Mary's and Texas&M in the next round. I think that they can take advantage of either style of play because those are two very teams. Illinois has the talent to do it, but can they actually keep it together? UNCC has too many injuries, especially one of their best players. And then again, I almost feel like that national championship game will be that Elite 8 game. Not to discount anyone else, but the intensity in that game will look like a national championship game. But give me Houston with the divi deciding factor of being on that home court and them getting to get back. Yeah. And and again, I I look at this from the standpoint of in order for in order for Houston to get to the championship game, right, they have to go through Florida, right, in the in the Final Four. That's the way it that's the way it it it lines up. Um, Florida's they're in the same bracket in the South and Florida, but this time I think they come with something that they didn't have last year, and that's a guy who can get a bucket when when you need a bucket. That's always been the Achilles heel of Houston is that they don't have enough guys that can get buckets when you need to get buckets. It's too much dry time. They play the best defense in the country. It's not even close, right? They they can play any style of game because their defense is always going to like like buoy them. If you want to run up and down, you're going to miss more shots than they're going to miss because they're going to D you up better than you're going to D them up. You're going to get frustrated. It's quick sand. All those things. I think Florida plays way too slow and way too much of a halfcourt game to be able to like do that to them for for for an entire game. I I I looked at I looked, by the way, I looked at Michigan and and Duke, who are the number one seeds that I think have like a really good chance. Arizona obviously does, right? They're they're they're great. Michigan, Duke, I just feel like Duke's relying on way too many young people to get it done. Michigan's relying on way too many people who have not been pushed. and Arizona has some elements of people who haven't proven they can get it done when they absolutely need it most. Um, that's why I think that wherever it comes out of, Houston's going to have that advantage of I've been there. I've seen it. And like you said, they got the home field. Their entire brain is just let's get back home. Let's get back home. Let's get back home. And if they get back home, good luck. like good luck dealing with that. Houston, we all know, we don't got to say it. We all know Houston, it's gonna be a different element in Houston than you're used to seeing at a Final Four if Houston gets there. This isn't Baylor when Baylor got there. And we know what Baylor looks like outside of their outside of their basketball team, right? Nope. Houston looks pretty much like their basketball team. So, it's going to be really interesting. Really rock this type of crowd. And you know, the thing that really swung me 100% to make this bet is that 13.4x. I understand why they did it, but I honestly don't understand it. To your point, Houston has a guy that can get a bucket this year. The reason they lost the national championship last year is because Florida had the guy who can get the bucket. And that was the deciding factor because Houston now played Florida for the vast majority of the game. they bring that same intensity and same focus back, all the things play in their favor. I feel like I feel like they should to some extent be the favorite except for Florida kind of standing way, but other than that, give me them over anyone else. Um Illinois at 23 and a half um x, that's a that's an interesting long shot play if you wanted to play that. Um, Purdue, who I think a lot of people thought would be the odds on favorite going into the season, has underachieved because the Big 10 is a blender this year, like trying to get through that. They might be able to get it going. Um, if you're thinking Kansas, don't think it. They're too flawed. If you're thinking Gonzaga, don't think it. They're too flawed. If you're thinking um a team like Michigan State, don't think it. They're too flawed. those teams, you're you wanna you want to try to find a bet or a a place to to pick up those assets early to to week number two, maybe even to elite 8 if you're thinking about them that way. But after that, you want to cut that off. And so, um, look at look at the look at the look at the props markets, see where they are as far as, um, you know, week eight or excuse me, elite 8, sweet 16. Those are where you want to try to try to find those those teams there because if they're 23 and 46 to one to get to the final four to win it all, then that means they're probably a good four or five to one to get to like the eight or the 16, something like that. And you can you can find good money to invest in there. But they're not winning the championship. To me, this starts to rally down to those ones, those two seeds, maybe a dark horse as a as a three, and after that, it gets a little bit blurry for me. Yeah, it's almost uh you have five legitimate teams, I believe, who could win a national championship, maybe six. You have 12 who could win. And part of it is circumstance, right? Let's say one of the one seas goes down and stumbles. Now, you have an easier path for someone else to get there to the final four. And that's all you need is just to get a chance to dance. Yeah. No, I agree. I agree wholeheartedly and I'm and I'm looking forward to I'm looking forward to this tournament. I think it's going to be fun. I think there's a lot of of ways. Remember, you can still put together assets to parlay on these prediction markets, especially on Koshi, where you can put together, it's called combo. Look for that little square that's on the top. It says combo in the first round, right? those first two days, maybe even round two depending upon you can find a sweet spot for some combinations of teams that are going to win. And if you can get the number right, it could be a windfall early on that allows you to then take that take those investments and flip it on some things that might be a little bit more fruitful towards the final four. So don't think you have to automatically go straight for the the final four or the championship team. You might want to take that first round, see how it plays out, make a little make a little bit of money, then take that investment and flip it into the second and third and fourth rounds. Yeah. And on a personal level, I haven't looked at how the combo works there, but just think about it theoretically. The amount of times the 16 sees to be the one is minuscule. Even 15s don't be twos often. If you want to go with a either four or eight bet on a parlay, it's small money, but it incrementally could help. So, I throw all the ones, all the twos winning, and then throw a couple of other guys and then you got a 10 team parlay that makes you just a little bit of money. And hey, winning is all you want to do, right? So, you might as well win. Absolutely. Survive and advance. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us as always on Fade to Field, our men's basketball tournament edition. I'm Coach Jean Clemens. That is CJ. You can follow him at CJ Florida9, right? CJ Florida9 anywhere. You can follow me at Jean Clemens. Make sure that you go and um check out check out his podcast. Um Chopping It Up with CJ does a great job of talking about the NFL and and everything that comes to the NFL. You want to check that out, especially once we start getting towards those NFL um you know, the NFL season. But check him out over there. does a great job with everything he does. As always, follow everything that the seven articles are doing. Follow us on social media. Follow us or subscribe to us on YouTube and subscribe to the subs that do it now before it is expensive. I'm just saying. I'm not saying move. Until next time, you guys have a great one. We'll see you all later. Heat. Hey, Heat.