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Big Brother 28 Week 5: The 2¢ Won HOH — Updated Kalshi Winner Odds

August 10, 2026 · 9:43 · Big Brother

About this video

Big Brother 28 Week 5 breakdown and updated Kalshi winner odds. LaTrice won the Wall, Kamu won the veto and didn't use it, and Haley is the target — but the market is doing something strange: it's pricing a nominee HIGHER than the Head of Household. We bought LaTrice at 2¢ and Taylor at 5¢ eight days ago. LaTrice is now 4¢ and running the house. Taylor is 8¢. Dee and Devens both went DOWN. Here's the full board and where we're going next. 📊 FULL WRITE-UP + THE COMPLETE DEVIGGED BOARD: 🎯 More entertainment markets: ⏱️ CHAPTERS 00:00 Tool Shed Alliance Fractures & Vote Aftermath 01:08 Lala's HOH Win & Rising Odds for Under-the-Radar Players 02:32 Week 5 Eviction Target Predictions (Haley vs. Chuck) 03:24 House Factions & Key Player Breakdown 05:32 Best Value Bets to Win Season 28 (Taylor & Yash) 07:09 Lala's Game Strategy & Final Winner Predictions 📈 THE BOARD — Kalshi KXBIGBROTHER, Aug 11, 2026 Dee Valladares 26¢ · Rick Devens 18¢ · Kamu Kirk 9¢ · Drew Campbell 9¢ · Barrett Pfeiffer 9¢ · Yash Patel 8¢ · Taylor Brown 8¢ · Mallory Aurichio 6¢ · Angela Murray 4¢ · Melody Morris 4¢ · LaTrice Verrett 4¢ · Chuk Anyanwu 2¢ · Haley Thogmartin 1¢ Thirteen live contracts sum to 108¢ — an 8% overround. Divide any price by 1.08 for the true implied probability. 🔧 FREE TOOLS WE USE IN THIS VIDEO Probability Converter — Expected Value Calculator — Kelly Sizing — 🔗 The 7 Oracles — A prediction market is not a sportsbook. A contract settles at $1 or $0, so the price in cents IS the market-implied probability. Nothing in this video is financial advice. Trade responsibly.

Chapters

  1. 0:00 Tool Shed Alliance Fractures & Vote Aftermath
  2. 1:08 Lala's HOH Win & Rising Odds for Under-the-Radar Players
  3. 2:32 Week 5 Eviction Target Predictions (Haley vs. Chuck)
  4. 3:24 House Factions & Key Player Breakdown
  5. 5:32 Best Value Bets to Win Season 28 (Taylor & Yash)
  6. 7:09 Lala's Game Strategy & Final Winner Predictions
Read the full breakdown →
Full transcript

So, we have another week in the big brother house and that alliance formerly known as the tool shed. Well, you could take a hammer and any other tool in the shed to it because that is absolutely done. First of all, this lyric eviction completely stirred the pot and once again it was the icons playing the game that have stirred the pot, right? Dons and Angela decided to go ahead flip the vote, go with lyric instead of melody. But then in essence, it's creating kind of confusion and mistrust because the tool shed thought they were going one way, but in fact now they're going the other way. And now you got guys like Kamu and Chuck wondering who is lying. We all know it's D and Angela, but they are keeping it quiet. And here's what else has happened. You thought that the red corner, the cool kids, right? When you have Haley, when you have Chuck, when you have Kamu, you thought they would then be kind of a tight three, but that is not what is going on. You see Chuck and Kamu going ahead talking about, "Oh, I don't trust him." Do you see how he's reacting? You saw Kamu going back to the new head of household being like, "I think we need to flip the script and put up Chuck." So, that one is completely done as well. The new head of household is in one of the biggest upsets in the entire history of the series is Lala. Lala outlasted everybody on the wall to win HOH. And that's why all of a sudden people are now running up to LA talking about who they should put up on the block. And remember, I have always said that I think Lala and Taylor are under the radar and that has been reflected in some of these seasonlong futures kind of trades. Lala is up to about four or 5% but Taylor is the one to watch in my opinion. When I started talking about Taylor, she was at 3 or 4%. Now Taylor is up all the way to 8%. I think she is perfectly positioned to go far in this game. One, because she has friends on all of these little groups. We talked about the honor society with people like D and Angela. We talked about some of the kind of uh American dreams, right? Some of these other the cool kids. She's down with people like Kamu and Haley, right? Then also she's also cool with people like Drew and Barrett. And she's okay with Melody and Melanie. She is okay with everybody but is not being perceived as someone who can, you know, ride the middle or who is playing the game too hard. And of course, she has Lala in her pocket. So for this week, you saw everybody continuing to talk about Haley. Everyone doesn't like Haley. She's at 58% to be voted off this week and get evicted. I think that is a good play, okay? because unless she wins veto or she wins the blockbuster, I think she is the person who will have enough votes to actually get evicted. Chuck is the second choice at 40%. I don't think it's going to be Chuck. While he is kind of part of that what was the red corner, what was the cool kids along with Haley and Kamu and that's breaking apart. Chuck has kind of been nondescript. People don't actually have animosity towards Chuck in the way they do with Haley. So, if Ay doesn't win veto, if a doesn't win Blockbuster, I think she will get the votes to actually get evicted. And at 58%, I think there is value there for that trade. Now, we have to look forward here because for the last few weeks, right, this tool shed alliance has been completely dominating the house and they've been able to kind of pick people off one by one, whether it was Jason, whether it was Rome. Right now, we have to as the deck has been reshuffled a little bit, look at who are the little clicks, right? So, I think first there's Melody, Mallerie, and I think Drew and Barrett are ultimately with them, right? Then I also think you have the icons. You have D, Devons, and Angela. I don't think the icons are going to win because eventually they have big targets on their back and people will go for them. You don't want someone like D who's won Survivor before, to go ahead and win the prize for Big Brother. and D is the favorite to win this entire season. I don't think that is going to happen. Eventually, they are going to cut her. The question is, and we saw this in Unlocked, will it be Devons who actually turns? They made a great point that in Survivor D showed that she can kind of cut her number one ally, but Devons has not shown that yet. Can Devons do that? That will be part of the question. I don't think it's going to be an icon right now. these kind of cool kids, these red corner folks of Kamu, Chuck, and Haley, they went from being in a power position to truly on the bottom in my opinion. People do not like that group. And heck, Chuck and Kamu are now kind of going at each other behind people's back, telling them they should be put up on the block. I don't think they are going to last, right? Then you have again these kind of American Dreams kind of younger other other folks that have been on the bottom at the beginning, but now are rising a little bit. I'm talking about Melody. I'm talking about Mallalerie. I'm talking about Drew and Barrett who are kind of playing the middle. I don't see them moving far as well. I think Melody and Mallerie are not liked. Melody is not liked by a lot of people in the house. Mallerie is viewed as a competition beast. So, I don't think she will go far. Drew and Barrett are people that have been perceived as playing both sides. You even heard Lala talking to Barrett saying, "Hey, you've been found out that you're kind of playing both sides." So that is exposed right. Who does that leave? It is the under the radar people that I am talking about and that is Lala and Taylor. And then Yash. Yash is also kind of positioned in this way where there's not a lot of blood on his hands and he hasn't really made any enemies in the house. We are still early enough in the season that if you don't have a firm alliance or a home as it were that may be better that you can kind of you know morph and be a chameleon being on different sides strengthening relationships. You just heard Yash even on the previous episode saying that listen he thinks he's good with LA and that's going to allow him to strengthen relationships. I actually believe now that Taylor and Yash are the two people to watch cuz they are not firmly entrenched in a group that has hatred or anxiety or angst targeted to them and they are not seen as playing too hard and riding the middle. Taylor and Yash are people that I definitely think are available to kind of be far in this game and that is a value. Yash right now is at 7%. Taylor is at 8%. They are in kind of the fourth and fifth most uh best odds, right? Because I don't believe in D at 23% at Devon's in 18%. Kamu is too hated. He is not going to win at 10%. Drew at 8%. They see him as riding the middle. I think Taylor and Yash are the bets to make and they are liked enough to be able to kind of have homes and link on to uh alliances as they form. But we got to say this, the biggest story is literally LA winning head of household in the famed wall comp. You would never think that someone in her late 50s would outlast everybody, especially Kamu for goodness sakes and other guys like with the UFC build, guys like Chuck and even Drew, right? You thought this would be kind of a strength thing, but it was Lala who outlasted everybody. And I also love how Lala is playing this under the radar # confused, acting like she doesn't know what's going on. I think that will do well for her in the short term, but she will ultimately not win because she is not as much of the game player. She's really still linked to Taylor and Taylor will eventually cut her. That's why Taylor and Yash are the ones I think are best position. But you know what is great? After this lyric upheaval of an eviction, the lines are being drawn. The tool shed is done and buried and we are now going to truly start to play the game of Big Brother. So you got to see who's aligned with who. And at this point being too loud, being too hated, guys like Kamu, people like Haley, you are going to get bounced. That is why I think Haley at 58% is prime this week for eviction, unless she wins Veto, unless she wins Blockbuster, and then in the long term, the people I think are best positioned are Yash and Taylor. And you can get them at seven and 8%. That is over 10 times your money. It ain't going to be the icons. It ain't going to be the red corner. It ain't going to be these people like Melody and Mallerie because they are now viewed as, you know, problems in the house as well. Whether it be because of competitions or relationships. When you go go through a process of elimination, Yash and Taylor are the ones who are best positioned to go ahead and win Big Brother season 28. And there is still value. And by the way, when we talk about getting value, Seven Oracles is the place to be. It could be on Big Brother. It could be on the NFL. It could be on other things like Rotten Tomatoes. We have a great free newsletter that comes out. We have great content every single day and tools that are giving you the edge to profit in these prediction markets. What you need to do is come on and join us. Subscribe for the newsletter. Subscribe to the website and really get bank. Come join us in the prediction Illuminati and maybe you can get bank in my opinion like Yash and Taylor may be primed to do as well.

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