Who will win Portugal vs Uzbekistan at the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-simulation model gives Portugal a 42% win probability, with 25% chance of a draw and 33% for Uzbekistan. Top value play: Ronaldo to score.

Will Portugal vs Uzbekistan go over 2.5 goals?

Our simulation projects this match as an Over 2.5 goals lean based on both teams' attacking output and defensive profiles.

GROUP KMATCHDAY 2

Portugal vs Uzbekistan: World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-20 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Portugal vs Uzbekistan — World Cup 2026 Group K prediction graphic

10,000 Sim Result

42%Portugal+138

25%Draw+300

33%Uzbekistan+203

Over 2.5: Yes ✓BTTS: No

Top Value Play

Ronaldo to score

Portugal

Odds+1718

Advance %98.7%

Win title %5.5%

Uzbekistan

Odds+99999

Advance %33.7%

Win title %0%

Match Analysis

Portugal and Uzbekistan meet in Group K at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-20 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. This is one of the tighter matches in Group K. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 9-point spread. Portugal enters with a 98.7% advancement probability in our model vs Uzbekistan at 33.7%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: Ronaldo to score.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.