[00:19] Nando: Anyway, I think we’re here. We’re live, everybody. We had a problem getting onto Twitter — whoops. But we’re on my X as well, so we’re good. Welcome, everybody. So far it’s Gene Clemons, Benny Ricciardi, Dane Martinez, and I’m Nando Defino. This is the first-ever 7 Oracles roundtable. Chris Manzo will be joining in a little bit, assuming the DMV treats him well. We’ve got a lot to cover.
[00:57] Nando: To bring everybody behind the scenes — Benny did the programming and designing and inventing of a bunch of tools, and one of them is called the Bitcoin Edge. Every day we play with these tools, and the Bitcoin Edge we’ve just been constantly winning on. Gan keeps sending us screenshots of green, green, green. I want to bring up the Bitcoin Edge real quick.
[01:27] Benny: Nando, before we do that — a lot of what we do is sports too, and there’s a blockbuster trade that literally just happened as we came on the air. Myles Garrett has been traded to the Rams. The Rams are the poster child for pushing all the chips in. They feel like they were a little away from a championship last year, and if they beat Seattle they win it. The Browns get Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, and other compensation.
[02:37] Gene: You’re going to see the Rams move immediately — it just did. Look at that.
[02:42] Benny: Gene, they just went from 11 to 17%.
[02:44] Gene: The Rams have always done this. If that two-point conversion on Thursday Night Football in Seattle goes the other way, they’re probably hosting that game as the one seed. They shoved all in — McDuffy, the quarterback from Kansas City, and now Garrett.
[03:07] Benny: Here’s what I wonder, Gene. In the draft they took Ty Simpson for succession planning. But when you’re shoving all in with the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford, why not use that number 13 overall pick on a piece for right now? This Garrett move says “right now” even more.
[04:11] Gene: You have to view the Simpson pick like the Packers’ quarterback succession — get the guy two or three years early, let him learn the system. That’s if you believe in Simpson. I didn’t love the pick, but if you’re grooming a quarterback you can find that upside on day three; you don’t need a premium pick. Still — when your MVP is in his late 30s, the window closes anyway, so increase your chances for this year’s Lombardi.
[07:32] Nando: What are we right now? Bitcoin money. Let’s make this Bitcoin money — we’ve got 20 minutes.
[08:17] Nando: All right, let’s hit the Bitcoin Edge. This is Benny’s tool — Benny’s going to explain it. Behind the scenes we’ve been using this a lot. There’s a bunch of jargon up top — just skip it.
[08:40] Benny: Let me make this as easy as I can. There are two parts: the big box up top and the box underneath. What I did is take live market analysis and run it through a long math problem that spits out an implied price — based on where trillions of dollars of institutional money is positioned, the price of Bitcoin should be X. All we do is ask: is the current price Y above or below X? If it’s below, we buy YES that it’ll be higher; if above, we buy NO. That’s the whole concept.
[10:59] Benny: The top box is the bird’s-eye view across all the strike prices. For the finance geeks — yes, we update in real time. It’s not second-to-second because the math takes a beat, but it’s faster than the tools that run on a delay. You’ll be the first to know when things flip from positive to negative.
[11:55] Benny: Now go to the bottom for the strike prices. If you’re playing the Bitcoin 15-minute or the hourly, you just want to know if it’s going up or down. Over on Kalshi — or Polymarket, DraftKings, Novig — you’ll see the same buckets: will it be over 716, under 717. The columns that matter are buy YES, buy NO, and the strength of conviction. Anytime it’s high conviction, we’ve been hitting on about 80% of those.
[13:37] Gene: Right now — it just went over 715. The 715 was 44%, now it’s at 76%. Anybody watching live, with the way these numbers came out, you should be going long on 716, long on 715.
[13:59] Nando: What does “going long” mean, Benny?
[14:11] Benny: Once you see the main number — say it reads buy YES on 716 at medium — don’t think about the entire hour. Try to grab that percentage on Kalshi. If 716 is rising, look at 717, but don’t wait for the hour to close. If it hits 717, sell, because your confidence said 716 — it’ll probably drop back. While it’s rising, grab a little of the 717. Put a little change on it; don’t bet your mortgage.
[15:24] Benny: Two important things. One: do not bet the mortgage. What the tool shows you is the direction — and it shows you before anybody else because I’ve got four or five feeds staggered so there’s always a fresh one coming in. Two: when you start seeing medium and high signals, that means a massive amount of options volume is leaning that way — somebody made a big move that it’s going higher or lower. That’s why it’s higher conviction. It tells you where the hedge funds and the VCs are putting their money so you can follow along.
[16:53] Gene: Another thing to watch — you’ll get swings. You put on a 717 and it drops below 716 and you panic. Be patient but have conviction. As we were talking it went from 716.15 down to 715.50 and it’s already back over 716.
[17:29] Benny: You can play it two ways. Wait until the end of the hour and see, or do what I do — move and shake, in and out. If the tool says buy YES on 716, I’m looking at 717 because that’s a medium-confidence contract. If it gets to 75-80% I may cash out and call it a day, or take that money and play the 716. And I like a little trick: open the hourly market next to the 15-minute market so you can watch it second by second.
[19:18] Dane: Let me tell you what I’m doing, the conservative way. When it says buy the 716, I go to Kalshi and yes-over-716 is in the 60s, but yes-over-715 is at 65%. I hammer that. If our tool says it’ll be over 716, I’ll be damn sure we hit 715. In sports-betting terms that’s like a minus-180 favorite — but my 715 is now at 94% and I’m ready to do it again next hour. There’s a million ways to use the tool. This is basically a quant tool — the kind of thing a quant fund would use.
[21:10] Benny: There are multiple ways to do it. Gan gets ahead of it — buys at 20-30 cents and waits for it to pop to 70-80, day-trading style. Dane buys the one a little more in the money — less upside, but he cashes more often. I do a bit of both, and I’ll hedge: take the profit from the in-the-money contract and play the $100, $200, $300 above or below, so if it blows out I’ve covered it. Worst case I break even; best case I turn $100 into ten or fifteen times my money — and it’s all said and done in an hour. Screw up the 1-2 o’clock window? It starts over at 2.
[23:13] Benny: If you’re over on PredictionMarketsPicks — the 7 Oracles website — use the Kelly calculator for how much of your bankroll to put in. On $100 it’ll say $5-10 a trade; on $1,000, $50-100. And remember how prediction markets work: there needs to be somebody on the other side. You can always get a $5 or $10 in, especially in these Bitcoin markets because there’s a lot of volume — but watch your fill price, because the rest might fill at 70-80 instead of the 47 you saw.
[24:30] Nando: For those watching — we are the 7 Oracles. Go over to the7oracles.com. We’ve got great content and a free newsletter. Benny, what’s the promo code?
[24:48] Benny: Right now the promo code is WORLDCUP, because the World Cup’s coming up — 33% off. The monthly is $15, so you get in for $9.99. The year is $150; with the promo it’s about $99.99 for the whole year.
[25:46] Benny: Two more things for the top of any hour. This only works when the options market is open, because we’re comparing it to the prediction market to find the edge. Give it about five minutes — I open it at 10:05 instead of 10:00 so it has time to pull everything in. Right at the top of the hour it’ll bounce, then after five or six minutes it settles and tells you where the money’s coming in, because it resets every hour on the hour.
[27:01] Benny: This tool was made for Bitcoin on Kalshi, but DraftKings Predict, Polymarket, and Novig all have the same Bitcoin market — the price of Bitcoin is the same for all of them. I do it versus Kalshi because Kalshi has the most volume, and if you’re going to play, play in the biggest market. To all our Polymarket people — not everybody in the US can use that yet, but the day we’re allowed, I’ve got the entire site mirrored for Polymarket.
[30:42] Dane: Don’t think about this as retirement. Think of it as a great night out — take the $250 or $300 you won and flip it into something else. These prediction markets aren’t exactly like a sports bet, because not every source lets you just get out right now.
[31:28] Benny: And you get better prices getting out of a prediction market than a sports bet, because you’re not against the house with unlimited money — you get out at whatever price somebody else will pay. Good example: I got into the Knicks and the Spurs to win the NBA championship during game four of those last series. I can hold or get out right now with a 15-20% jump on the Knicks. The Spurs one — shout out to Dane, who did a video on it two weeks ago and got in even cheaper than I did — my money’s already more than tripled. I got in around 20 cents; it’s in the 60s now. You don’t have to sell out to a book at fifty cents on the dollar.
[33:27] Gene: To that point about cash-outs — one of the things we’re ready to go on at the 7 Oracles is the World Cup. Benny built a whole package: edges on every team, the penalty-kicker for every team. Here’s the one I’m telling y’all to do right now. Do I believe this team wins the World Cup? No. But I believe there’s going to be a cash-out option. Mexico is 1% to win — like the 20th choice. But they’re the favorite in Group A, they have home-field, and teams have to come into Estadio Azteca at 7,000 feet. They’re going to win that group.
[35:00] Gene: Win the group, and because of the expanded field they’d face a third-place team, and in all likelihood the round-of-16 opponent is the Group L winner — projected to be England. England’s a big-boy team, but they’ve also historically defecated the mattress in big World Cup spots. You need a team organized defensively — check, Mexico. A great goalkeeper — check, one of the best in the world. I’m not saying Mexico goes all the way. I’m saying when they win their first knockout match, they’re going to be a lot more than 1%, and your 1% trade has a far higher cash-out. Buy some of these 1% teams now and play for the cash-out in the round of 16.
[36:58] Benny: Great point — and if you think that’s possible, it sets up your daily trading. Then you go back to the7oracles.com, look at the World Cup edge, and find the most likely goal scorer for Mexico, who takes the penalty kicks, what the chances are of a nil-nil draw against Korea. That’s the beauty of the World Cup — points matter so much that teams play for the tie, and third place can still get you through.
[38:28] Benny: For anybody out there — even if you’re not a soccer fan, just a degenerate like me — you’re probably going to be trading the World Cup. I looked everywhere; there isn’t another place in America with better World Cup stuff than we have right now. I used the same advanced football data the European sites use — expected-goal rates, player tracking — built a profile on every team, and added a profile from qualifying (we threw out the friendlies, since teams don’t play their best players). Spain comes up high because they won the Euros at full strength. Like a Madden rating for every team.
[40:11] Benny: Then I ran it through a Monte Carlo simulation — it plays the entire tournament 10,000 times, and the numbers you see are the results of those 10,000 runs. If a guy shows six goals a game, that’s the average across all those simulated games. The full methodology is underneath. I broke it down by the trades we like — goal scorers in every game, the positions that get the most scoring chances, the penalty-takers and aerial targets — and which teams play the nil-nil style Gene loves.
[42:09] Benny: Nando, go to the Sports tab, down to the World Cup Match widget. I made this free for everybody. It updates with the next four games and rolls forward day by day. Below it is a breakdown of every group-stage game — most-likely scorers, the percentages the game ends 0-0, 1-0, 2-1 — all from that simulation. This is what I’ll be using to make every one of my trades. Sign up for the email, hop in the Discord — Gan and I will be in there, and Nando and Dane are degenerates, so they’ll be trading it with us too.
[43:35] Dane: I’m over here trading Bitcoin right now — we’ve got action on the Bitcoin Edge. 713.89 is a buy NO, and 714, 715, 716 are all high confidence for buy NO. I’m on Kalshi right now — 54 cents is what NO is trading at for 714, so you’re getting a good 80% of your investment. 715 is at 70%. Think of it in sports-betting terms — a minus-210. This is the time to get in if you like the under.
[44:43] Gene: When you see it dropping precipitously like this, go back up to the 716, see where it’s at, and maybe put $10 on it — because if the swing happens and you got in early, you can cash out for 10x. Imagine turning $10 into $100 just by watching how the market moves. Don’t panic.
[45:35] Nando: It sounds like we’re shilling, but we actually do this. This is our group text, essentially — from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. we’re shooting messages back and forth about the Bitcoin. You look at your phone and you’ve got 17 texts because the hour’s wrapping up.
[46:01] Benny: There’s value in getting in early on the hour, or early in the 15 minutes if you want to go crazy, or early on the full day. And there’s value in waiting until the last 10 to catch it right. Sometimes you hit snake eyes, because at the end of the day this is still trading — anytime you’re investing money, there’s risk. When you get in early you can also hedge: if your bets are basically locked, play the 15-minute window in the opposite direction to protect the profit. We’ve been on the right side about 80% of the time on high, around 88% I think, and about 60 on medium. If you’re getting 60% winners on coin-flips, you make money. Do it — be smart, don’t go all in.
[48:31] Gene: Shout out to Kalshi — if you try to put all your money on one of these, it’ll send you a notification: “Are you sure?” Maybe diversify a little. If you got in early and saw it dip and you bought the 715 at a good price and you’re already up $30 on $50 — cash out. Then reconfigure and invest back in.
[49:58] Dane: We’ve only got 10 minutes and a title that includes Spencer Pratt — and I’ve got these New York Knicks. Game one in the building. Bing bong, we got the Knicks in the Finals.
[50:23] Nando: There was one cool market I found on the Knicks. I like the Knicks — someone’s mastered the video game as the Knicks — and to have them at 36% feels low. Give these guys credit; they steamrolled everybody. And there’s a Timothée Chalamet market — how many Knicks playoff games will he attend? It’s really a backdoor way to bet whether the series goes long, with a publicity-tour angle on top, because Dune is coming out against a Marvel movie and he’s got to stay visible — courtside at MSG, maybe road games in San Antonio too.
[54:58] Nando: Let me hit Spencer Pratt. The whole point of the 7 Oracles is that it’s not just sports — culture, entertainment, politics, all of it. Spencer Pratt is supposed to advance against Mayor Bass, which was unheard of three weeks ago, but he’s been loud enough and endeared himself. California doesn’t do separate party primaries — it’s top-two, whoever’s in the mix.
[55:48] Nando: That brings me to the California governor market. The Wall Street Journal polling has the front-runners close, but the advancement market has Steyer well behind the other two — Becca out front and Hilton the Republican everyone’s coalescing around.
[56:14] Benny: While Nando pulls that up — we have a politics tab on the site. Here’s a thing we back-tested: in the last election the prediction markets had every single thing right versus what the media predicted. Same with the Massie race — the markets were all over the other side, and they were right again. When people put actual money behind it, that’s a signal. The markets are undefeated so far.
[57:53] Dane: Steyer’s a billionaire talking about affordability — almost talking like a Republican — but Hilton is so good in the debates. I’ve gotten way too into politics again because of all this.
[58:05] Benny: Look at the volume in that market — over $2 million. That’s the other thing with prediction markets: sometimes a price looks crazy, then you see there’s only $1,200 in it and one person bet $400. A market with $2.2 million in it is a signal worth paying attention to — one bet won’t move it.
[58:56] Benny: If it makes you feel better, the Democratic presidential nominee market is trading $17 million in volume right now.
[59:11] Dane: Is AOC still up there? Newsom’s at 23%, AOC at 11-12%. I think it’s going to be one of the governors — people want that nostalgia. But I keep looking at AOC, who’s been in the trenches the whole time; that endears her in a way other nominees weren’t. What I always look for is the polar opposite of the person in the presidency now — that’s who the other side goes and gets.
[60:51] Benny: One more for anybody new to the politics markets. To become president you first have to win your party’s nomination — and for some candidates you can get better odds on them to be the nominee than to be president. So you might as well take the nominee contract; you don’t even need them to win the White House. Cross-check the markets — we have tools on the site that do it, behind the paywall.
[61:51] Nando: Looking at the Democratic presidential nominee board now — Newsom 23 cents, AOC 12 cents — and that market has $117 million plus in volume.
[62:13] Benny: A little Bitcoin Edge love before we roll. If you’re catching this right now — it’s spiking. It’s still saying buy NO on 714.46, medium confidence now. If you were in there the whole time and bought low and didn’t get out, you may have to hold until the end of the hour. These are binary options — they pay out one or zero at the close.
[62:53] Gene: If you got in and it moved against you, it’s not over yet. You can still rock that wave.
[63:01] Nando: All right — we don’t really have a name for this yet. Predictions and picks. Prediction Markets Picks. Thank you for joining us. This is a 7 Oracles production — for Gene Clemons, Benny Ricciardi, Dane Martinez a.k.a. Spitting Speeds, I’m Nando. We hope you had fun and learned something. We’ll see you all next time.
