Play of the Day

Bellingham has scored in four of England's six matches — six goals, tied with Kane for the team lead — with a brace in each of the last two knockout rounds. He and Kane account for 12 of England's 13 goals this tournament, and Jude has been operating as a de facto second striker, not a midfielder. England is the market favorite to reach the final, which means the attacking volume flows through exactly two players. Kalshi prices Kane at 39¢ and Jude at 27¢ — that gap is too wide for how England actually creates chances right now. Our fair number is low-30s: at 27¢ that's a +5-6pp edge and roughly +20% EV per contract, with quarter-Kelly sizing around 2% of bankroll. Better than 2.5-to-1 on the hottest scorer in the tournament, in a match England controls on paper. Worth building a position before the 3 PM ET kickoff.