Play of the Day

The case is a striker who scores almost every time he plays. Haaland has 12 goals in 9 matches this season, all starts, and has scored in 8 of them, the first goal of the match in 5. Across those nine, Kalshi priced his anytime goal at an average of 55 cents before kickoff: the market has been pricing a little better than a coin flip, and he has cashed 89% of the time. Every match, with the pre-kickoff price and the result, is on our Haaland goal tracker. Fresh legs. He scored twice in last Saturday's 3-2 win over Ipswich but came out of it with a knock, so Maresca left him on the bench for all of Tuesday's 5-1 Champions League win over AEK Athens. On Thursday Maresca said Haaland is "100% available" for Villa, so he arrives on a full week's rest. The match: Kalshi has City at 60 cents to win at Villa Park, Villa at 20 and the draw at 22. City is the clear market favorite on the road, and the side expected to win gets the chances. The risk is the price and the minutes. At 55 cents he has to score more than 55% of the time for this to pay, a lunchtime kickoff at Villa Park is no walkover, and a striker coming back from a knock is the first one off if City is comfortable by the hour. Size it as a strong favorite, not a lock.