Kalshi vs Polymarket — NFL Price Gaps
Kalshi and Polymarket both price the NFL — and they don’t always agree. Year-round, both exchanges run deep NFL futures (Super Bowl champion, division and conference winners, MVP), and we track Polymarket’s NFL board live. Per-game cross-exchange gaps fill in through the season — Kalshi lists each week of game markets one to two weeks out, and 2026 Week 1 kicks off September 9. Below are the current gaps; Polymarket is geoblocked for US traders, so US readers take the Kalshi side.
Live NFL Price Gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Updated Jun 9, 11:45 PM ETWhere Kalshi and Polymarket price the same game differently right now. Two exchanges disagreeing on the same outcome is a genuine cross-exchange gap — unlike a sportsbook line, which bakes in vig (the house edge). The book's implied price is shown for reference so you can see how much wider it sits.
Gaps are the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by symmetric KL divergence. Polymarket prices come from the latest hourly snapshot; Kalshi prices are live. Sportsbook prices are de-vigged for a fair comparison. Informational only — verify resolution terms before trading.
How we compute the gap
For each NFLgame listed on both exchanges, we take Kalshi's live implied probability and Polymarket's latest snapshot probability for the same team, then measure how far apart they are. Games are ranked by symmetric KL divergence — a measure of how much the two price distributions disagree — and we surface the biggest gaps first. A “gap” here is the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges, in percentage points.
A cross-exchange gap is not the same as a sportsbook edge. Two exchanges disagreeing is a genuine signal; a sportsbook line sitting wider is mostly vig — the house margin baked into both sides. That's why we lead with the Kalshi–Polymarket comparison and show the book only for reference. Informational only — always verify resolution terms and liquidity before taking a position.
NFL: Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQ
Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for NFL?
It changes game by game and future by future. The live table flags the cheaper exchange on each market. Neither exchange charges vig — unlike a sportsbook — so the gap you see is the real cross-exchange price difference, not a house margin.
Does Polymarket have NFL markets?
Yes. Polymarket runs a deep NFL board — Super Bowl champion, division and conference winners, and MVP futures trade year-round, with individual game markets added through the season. We ingest its sports markets live, so the gaps above compare real Polymarket prices against Kalshi.
Can US users trade NFL on Polymarket?
No — Polymarket is geoblocked for US traders. We show its NFL prices for reference because it is one of the deepest event exchanges in the world, but US readers take the Kalshi side, which is the only trade link on this page.
When do per-game NFL price gaps appear?
Kalshi lists each week of NFL game markets one to two weeks before kickoff, and the 2026 regular season opens September 9. Season-long futures — Super Bowl, division, conference and MVP — trade year-round, so the futures gaps are live even when the per-game table is thin in the off-season.