Kalshi vs Polymarket — NFL Price Gaps
Kalshi and Polymarket both price the NFL — and they don’t always agree. Year-round, both exchanges run deep NFL futures (Super Bowl champion, division and conference winners, MVP), and we track Polymarket’s NFL board live. Per-game cross-exchange gaps fill in as each contract trades — Kalshi listed the 2026 Week 1 game markets in May, months ahead of the September 9 opener. Below are the current gaps; both venues are open to US traders, and Kalshi is the default trade link here for its all-50-states availability.
Every sport, the fees and the US venue side by side: Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Live NFL Price Gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Updated Oct 23, 8:30 AM ETWhere Kalshi and Polymarket price the same game differently right now. Two exchanges disagreeing on the same outcome is a genuine cross-exchange gap — unlike a sportsbook line, which bakes in vig (the house edge). A de-vigged sportsbook consensus is shown as a sharp reference: when one exchange hugs it and the other sits far off, the gap is that one venue being stale — not a true two-price arb.
Gaps are the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by symmetric KL divergence. Polymarket prices are the INTERNATIONAL order book (the one PMP ingests; Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own prices) from the latest hourly snapshot; Kalshi prices are live. Sportsbook prices are de-vigged for a fair comparison. Informational only — verify resolution terms before trading.
How we compute the gap
For each NFL game listed on both exchanges, we take Kalshi's live implied probability and Polymarket's latest snapshot probability for the same team, then measure how far apart they are. Games are ranked by symmetric KL divergence — a measure of how much the two price distributions disagree — and we surface the biggest gaps first. A “gap” here is the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges, in percentage points.
A cross-exchange gap is not the same as a sportsbook edge. Two exchanges disagreeing is a genuine signal; a sportsbook line sitting wider is mostly vig — the house margin baked into both sides. That's why we lead with the Kalshi–Polymarket comparison and show the book only for reference. Informational only — always verify resolution terms and liquidity before taking a position.
NFL: Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQ
Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for NFL?
It changes game by game and future by future. The live table flags the cheaper exchange on each market. Neither exchange charges vig — unlike a sportsbook — so the gap you see is the real cross-exchange price difference, not a house margin.
Does Polymarket have NFL markets?
Yes. Polymarket runs a deep NFL board — Super Bowl champion, division and conference winners, and MVP futures trade year-round, with individual game markets added through the season. We ingest its sports markets live, so the gaps above compare real Polymarket prices against Kalshi.
Can US users trade NFL on Polymarket?
Yes — Polymarket has served US traders since December 2025 (identity verification required, availability varies by state). We show its NFL prices because it is one of the deepest event exchanges in the world; Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and available in all 50 states, so it stays the default trade link here.
When do per-game NFL price gaps appear?
Kalshi listed the 2026 Week 1 NFL game markets in May — months ahead of the September 9 opener. Season-long futures — Super Bowl, division, conference and MVP — trade year-round, so the futures gaps are live even when the per-game table is thin in the off-season.