2026 Standard Fantasy Rankings — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Standard · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
What actually changes in Standard
Less than people think, and we measured it rather than guessing. Going from half-PPR to Standard, the average player moves 0.59 spots at his position on our published board — 60 of 152 draftable players move at all, and not one of the 26 quarterbacks moves. On the raw model rank, before it is anchored to consensus ADP, the average move is 1.35 spots. So the format is worth a nudge, not a different draft plan — the players below are where the nudge belongs.
Climb in Standard
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN · ADP 100+3
- Davante Adams WR · LAR · ADP 23+3
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN · ADP 113+3
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI · ADP 29+3
- Blake Corum RB · LAR · ADP 51+2
- Bucky Irving RB · TB · ADP 81+2
- DJ Moore WR · BUF · ADP 27+2
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG · ADP 126+2
Fall in Standard
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN · ADP 120-3
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ · ADP 163-3
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE · ADP 45-3
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN · ADP 87-3
- Woody Marks RB · HOU · ADP 53-2
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG · ADP 137-2
- Rashee Rice WR · KC · ADP 64-2
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC · ADP 16-2
Positional spots gained or lost against the half-PPR board. Standard rewards carries and big plays, so that is the direction the movement runs. Full workings in the format comparison.
This is the Standard version of the board: where our model and the draft room disagree, scored the way your league scores. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position. Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
The biggest Standard sleepers right now: Jauan Jennings, Jakobi Meyers, Zay Flowers. The busts we have furthest below the room: DJ Moore, KC Concepcion, Jalen Coker.
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | WR8 | 55 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 227.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | WR9 | 56 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 224.7 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | WR10 | 58 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 208.0 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | WR13 | 67 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 203.6 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | WR15 | 64 | +8 | Strong Sleeper | 187.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | WR19 | 26 | -8 | Strong Bust | 141.9 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | WR20 | 24 | -10 | Strong Bust | 140.1 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | WR21 | 79 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 170.8 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR24 | 32 | -10 | Strong Bust | 134.7 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | RB25 | 51 | -10 | Strong Bust | 88.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR25 | 37 | -10 | Strong Bust | 132.9 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR26 | 88 | +8 | Sleeper | 157.8 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR27 | 95 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 163.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR28 | 38 | -12 | Strong Bust | 128.2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR30 | 115 | +12 | Sleeper | 157.8 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | TE30 | 151 | -11 | Bust Risk | 58.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR34 | 27 | -22 | Strong Bust | 102.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | WR36 | 120 | +8 | Sleeper | 148.4 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | WR37 | 45 | -20 | Strong Bust | 106.9 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR38 | 159 | +14 | Sleeper | 162.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR42 | 150 | +9 | Sleeper | 152.1 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR44 | 73 | -16 | Bust Risk | 105.0 |
| Marvin Harrison | WR | HOU | WR46 | 89 | -11 | Bust Risk | 112.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | RB49 | 157 | -9 | Bust Risk | 69.6 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | WR49 | 105 | -10 | Bust Risk | 104.8 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | RB50 | 154 | -11 | Bust Risk | 64.8 |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO | WR50 | 93 | -14 | Strong Bust | 97.5 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR60 | 130 | -14 | Bust Risk | 93.6 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | NYJ | WR62 | 163 | -9 | Strong Bust | 96.1 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | WR66 | 179 | -8 | Strong Bust | 94.8 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR68 | 141 | -19 | Bust Risk | 85.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR72 | 168 | -18 | Bust Risk | 84.6 |
32 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
Half-PPR board →Full player projections →The 2026 Market Guide →Methodology →
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