2026 Standard Fantasy Rankings — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Standard · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
What actually changes in Standard
Less than people think, and we measured it rather than guessing. Going from half-PPR to Standard, the average player moves 0.71 spots at his position on our published board — 63 of 153 draftable players move at all, and not one of the 21 quarterbacks moves. On the raw model rank, before it is anchored to consensus ADP, the average move is 1.38 spots. So the format is worth a nudge, not a different draft plan — the players below are where the nudge belongs.
Climb in Standard
- Mike Evans WR · SF · ADP 54+5
- Jayden Reed WR · GB · ADP 91+4
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN · ADP 86+4
- Alec Pierce WR · IND · ADP 64+3
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX · ADP 71+3
- Blake Corum RB · LAR · ADP 127+2
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN · ADP 60+2
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB · ADP 138+2
Fall in Standard
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN · ADP 78-9
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN · ADP 95-6
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT · ADP 82-4
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF · ADP 132-4
- Denzel Boston WR · CLE · ADP 150-3
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX · ADP 89-2
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE · ADP 84-2
- DK Metcalf WR · PIT · ADP 67-2
Positional spots gained or lost against the half-PPR board. Standard rewards carries and big plays, so that is the direction the movement runs. Full workings in the format comparison.
This is the Standard version of the board: where our model and the draft room disagree, scored the way your league scores. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position. Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
The biggest Standard sleepers right now: Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Jakobi Meyers. The busts we have furthest below the room: Deebo Samuel, Luther Burden III, Matthew Golden.
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | TE21 | 141 | -8 | Bust Risk | 72.2 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR24 | 67 | +8 | Sleeper | 151.5 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR26 | 71 | +9 | Sleeper | 146.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR28 | 89 | +14 | Sleeper | 153.4 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR30 | 64 | +1 | Bust Risk | 140.3 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | RB31 | 53 | -8 | Bust Risk | 87.8 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | WR31 | 91 | +12 | Sleeper | 150.3 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR32 | 46 | -9 | Bust Risk | 119.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR37 | 125 | +18 | Sleeper | 154.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR39 | 54 | -12 | Bust Risk | 109.7 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR41 | 68 | -8 | Bust Risk | 118.5 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR45 | 77 | -9 | Bust Risk | 115.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR46 | 152 | +18 | Sleeper | 160.1 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR50 | 58 | -21 | Bust Risk | 92.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | RB55 | 175 | -9 | Strong Bust | 59.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | WR57 | 169 | +10 | Sleeper | 116.3 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR65 | 108 | -16 | Bust Risk | 88.5 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | SF | WR67 | 132 | -10 | Bust Risk | 90.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | WR72 | 107 | -24 | Strong Bust | 73.4 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | WR73 | 159 | -8 | Bust Risk | 85.7 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR75 | 161 | -9 | Bust Risk | 84.0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | WR83 | 178 | -15 | Bust Risk | 73.0 |
22 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
Half-PPR board →Full player projections →The 2026 Market Guide →Methodology →
Draft with the model inside your AI assistant
This board is a snapshot; the same Standard model is live inside Claude, ChatGPT or Grok — ask it for the best available at your pick, with the players already gone removed. All eight tools answer with no key and no account.