2026 Standard Fantasy Rankings — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Standard · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
What actually changes in Standard
Less than people think, and we measured it rather than guessing. Going from half-PPR to Standard, the average player moves 0.68 spots at his position on our published board — 65 of 156 draftable players move at all, and not one of the 21 quarterbacks moves. On the raw model rank, before it is anchored to consensus ADP, the average move is 1.44 spots. So the format is worth a nudge, not a different draft plan — the players below are where the nudge belongs.
Climb in Standard
- Alec Pierce WR · IND · ADP 61+3
- Davante Adams WR · LAR · ADP 38+3
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB · ADP 136+3
- Jayden Reed WR · GB · ADP 86+3
- Mike Evans WR · SF · ADP 56+3
- Blake Corum RB · LAR · ADP 123+2
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL · ADP 12+2
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX · ADP 175+2
Fall in Standard
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN · ADP 98-4
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN · ADP 78-4
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA · ADP 148-3
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS · ADP 100-3
- DJ Moore WR · BUF · ADP 48-3
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR · ADP 33-2
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT · ADP 83-2
- Matthew Golden WR · GB · ADP 104-2
Positional spots gained or lost against the half-PPR board. Standard rewards carries and big plays, so that is the direction the movement runs. Full workings in the format comparison.
This is the Standard version of the board: where our model and the draft room disagree, scored the way your league scores. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position. Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
The biggest Standard sleepers right now: Jauan Jennings, Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers. The busts we have furthest below the room: Luther Burden III, Mike Evans, Matthew Golden.
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | TE20 | 139 | -8 | Bust Risk | 79.0 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR24 | 65 | +9 | Sleeper | 151.1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR25 | 72 | +10 | Sleeper | 152.9 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR27 | 88 | +15 | Sleeper | 158.7 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | WR30 | 86 | +11 | Sleeper | 150.9 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | RB31 | 52 | -9 | Bust Risk | 90.9 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR32 | 61 | -1 | Bust Risk | 137.2 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR34 | 48 | -9 | Bust Risk | 125.4 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | WR35 | 92 | +8 | Sleeper | 149.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR37 | 124 | +17 | Sleeper | 155.9 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR44 | 154 | +20 | Sleeper | 162.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR45 | 56 | -16 | Bust Risk | 110.4 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR47 | 73 | -11 | Bust Risk | 116.4 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR50 | 53 | -23 | Bust Risk | 100.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | RB53 | 168 | -9 | Strong Bust | 64.0 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | RB55 | 177 | -8 | Strong Bust | 68.0 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | WR60 | 169 | +8 | Sleeper | 115.7 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR62 | 122 | -9 | Bust Risk | 92.6 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR65 | 104 | -16 | Bust Risk | 88.6 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | SF | WR66 | 128 | -11 | Strong Bust | 89.5 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR76 | 165 | -10 | Bust Risk | 83.8 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | WR78 | 179 | -8 | Bust Risk | 79.2 |
22 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
Half-PPR board →Full player projections →The 2026 Market Guide →Methodology →
Draft with the model inside your AI assistant
This board is a snapshot; the same Standard model is live inside Claude, ChatGPT or Grok — ask it for the best available at your pick, with the players already gone removed. All eight tools answer with no key and no account.