NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

Week 1 markets live now

FANTASY DRAFT

Free draft desk inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor

8 tools · no account

NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

Fantasy Draft KitFREE

2026 Full PPR Fantasy Rankings — Sleepers & Busts

2026 · Full PPR · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP

BETA

Scoring format

What actually changes in Full PPR

Less than people think, and we measured it rather than guessing. Going from half-PPR to Full PPR, the average player moves 0.39 spots at his position on our published board — 41 of 152 draftable players move at all, and not one of the 21 quarterbacks moves. On the raw model rank, before it is anchored to consensus ADP, the average move is 1.01 spots. So the format is worth a nudge, not a different draft plan — the players below are where the nudge belongs.

Climb in Full PPR

  • Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN · ADP 95+4
  • Michael Pittman WR · PIT · ADP 82+3
  • Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB · ADP 79+2
  • De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF · ADP 132+2
  • Denzel Boston WR · CLE · ADP 150+2
  • Josh Downs WR · IND · ADP 96+2
  • Khalil Shakir WR · BUF · ADP 115+2
  • Cam Skattebo RB · NYG · ADP 41+1

Fall in Full PPR

  • Rome Odunze WR · CHI · ADP 50-3
  • Quentin Johnston WR · LAC · ADP 88-2
  • Parker Washington WR · JAX · ADP 68-2
  • Michael Wilson WR · ARI · ADP 77-2
  • DK Metcalf WR · PIT · ADP 67-2
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX · ADP 171-2
  • Alec Pierce WR · IND · ADP 64-2
  • Woody Marks RB · HOU · ADP 155-1

Positional spots gained or lost against the half-PPR board. Full PPR rewards catches, so that is the direction the movement runs. Full workings in the format comparison.

This is the Full PPR version of the board: where our model and the draft room disagree, scored the way your league scores. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position. Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.

The biggest Full PPR sleepers right now: Jauan Jennings, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed. The busts we have furthest below the room: Deebo Samuel, Luther Burden III, Mike Evans.

PlayerPosTeamOur RankConsensus ADPvs ADPCallProj Pts
Isaiah LikelyTENYGTE21141-8Bust Risk105.6
DK MetcalfWRPITWR2467+8Sleeper225.6
Carnell TateWRTENWR2578+12Strong Sleeper227.9
Jakobi MeyersWRJAXWR2689+16Sleeper237.4
Michael PittmanWRPITWR2982+10Sleeper226.6
DJ MooreWRBUFWR3146-8Bust Risk179.4
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENWR3295+12Sleeper228.9
Bhayshul TutenRBJAXRB3253-9Bust Risk92.6
Alec PierceWRINDWR3564-4Bust Risk194.3
Rashid ShaheedWRSEAWR39125+16Sleeper234.7
Parker WashingtonWRJAXWR4368-10Bust Risk172.3
Mike EvansWRSFWR4454-17Bust Risk156.1
Jauan JenningsWRMINWR46152+18Sleeper240.1
Michael WilsonWRARIWR4777-11Bust Risk168.7
Luther Burden IIIWRCHIWR5058-21Bust Risk131.0
Stefon DiggsWRWASWR5498-8Bust Risk147.5
Cooper KuppWRSEAWR57169+10Sleeper171.5
Matthew GoldenWRGBWR64108-15Bust Risk124.0
Deebo SamuelWRSFWR73107-25Strong Bust98.7
Jalen NailorWRLVWR76161-10Bust Risk113.8
Ryan FlournoyWRDALWR84178-16Bust Risk95.7

21 players

Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)

Half-PPR board →Full player projections →The 2026 Market Guide →Methodology →

Draft with the model inside your AI assistant

This board is a snapshot; the same Full PPR model is live inside Claude, ChatGPT or Grok — ask it for the best available at your pick, with the players already gone removed. All eight tools answer with no key and no account.

Set up the draft assistant →