We Priced All 16 NFL Week 1 Openers. 3 Disagree — A Lot

September 2, 2026 · Short · The 7 Oracles

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What’s in this video

The 7 Oracles priced all 16 NFL Week 1 opening games through their model and compared the results against live Kalshi markets, highlighting three games where the model and market disagree by double digits. They walk through the Ravens-Colts, Cardinals-Chargers, and Browns-Jaguars matchups, explaining where they see the market mispricing the favorite or underdog.

Key points

Ravens at Colts: model gives Indianapolis a 54% win probability while Kalshi prices it at 38¢, a +16.2pp edge favoring a position on Indianapolis.
Cardinals at Chargers: model has the Chargers at 66% but Kalshi prices them at 82¢, a -16.0pp edge suggesting the market is overpaying the favorite, favoring a position on Arizona.
Browns at Jaguars: model puts Jacksonville at 65% versus Kalshi's 78¢ price, a -13.1pp edge, with the hosts arguing the 7.5-point spread is a full point too wide, favoring a position on Cleveland.
All three edges come from running each matchup through a 10,000-season simulation and comparing the resulting probability to the live market price.
The full 16-game Week 1 edge board is available for free on the PredictionMarketsPicks website.
The hosts note new edges will be published weekly and encourage subscribing before lines move.

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