Is San Antonio the Smart Longshot? Spurs vs Thunder and Title Odds | Kalshi and Polymarket Odds
April 24, 2026 · 5:06 · The 7 Oracles · Dane Martinez
What’s in this video
Dane Martinez of The 7 Oracles makes the case that the San Antonio Spurs, priced at 12% on Kalshi to win the NBA championship, are a value position against favorite Oklahoma City Thunder, who sit at 53%. He points to Victor Wembanyama's third-season leap, San Antonio's guard depth, and the Spurs' 4-1 record against the Thunder this season as reasons the market is underrating the team.
Key points
- Spurs are priced at 12% on Kalshi for the NBA championship, which Martinez frames as roughly 8x on a contract.
- Victor Wembanyama averaged 25 points, over 11 rebounds, and over three blocks per game in his third season, won unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, and is expected to finish top two in MVP voting.
- Wembanyama played only 29 minutes a game in the regular season due to minutes management, and Martinez expects his playoff minutes and defensive impact to increase.
- Martinez notes a dip in the Spurs' market percentage tied to Wembanyama's concussion protocol, which he views as a buying opportunity.
- San Antonio's guard depth (Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox) is cited as support beyond Wembanyama.
- The Spurs went 4-1 against the Thunder in five matchups this season, and Martinez says other markets price the Spurs closer to 7-to-1 compared to Kalshi's roughly 8-to-1, suggesting traders should shop around.
Full transcript
[music] You know what it is traders? It is time to once again build your portfolio with another profitable prophecy from the seven oracles. I'm your host, the spin statistician, Dane Martinez, one of the seven oracles, giving you a pick of the day to build your [music] bankroll. Let's get it. But before we get into that, remember, you got to go on over [music] to the sevenoracles.com. We got so much great content, so many great tools to really be profitable out there in the prediction market. Sign up for the free newsletter. [music] And if you want to subscribe and register and go pro, you can use the promo code the seven oracles and get not one, not two, but six free months to click around and find out and get some cash. I hope [music] everybody saw our draft night coverage where we absolutely crushed it. And [music] we're going to continue to crush it right now for our pick of the day. I know the NFL draft was big, but we are looking to another big sports event going on right now and it is the NBA playoffs where I think you could find some value [music] in who will win the NBA championship. The San Antonio Spurs are [music] at 12% right now and I think they are a value at about 8 times your money. First of all, they've got [music] Victor Wembeyama and I think this is the trump card of it all. There is absolutely no ceiling to what he can accomplish. In his third season, he kind of has announced himself as a potential face of the league, an MVP caliber talent, going for 25 points a game, over 11 rebounds a game, over three blocks a game. He was the unanimous defensive player of the year, and will probably finish in the top two of MVP voting. But some of those other stats are not what I think is really the important part. What I think is the important part is he only played 29 minutes a game in the regular season, right? As San Antonio was kind of managing his minutes. What are they managing his minutes for? Now, in the grind of the playoffs, I think he is actually going to play more in these Spurs game. [music] Increase his impact even more on especially the defensive side [music] of the ball. And that is really when you think about the playoffs, when things get tight, when things turn into more of a halfcourt game, the defensive presence [music] of Victor Wyama, I think, is even more important. And I think he's going to be on the court even more, [music] giving him an edge, making him and San Antonio be better than they even were [music] in the regular season. Now, I also know that he got banged up recently and he does have a concussion and it is concussion protocol, but I actually [music] believe that creates a little bit of a dip. If you see the line graph, there's a little bit of a dip in the percentage [music] for the Spurs. And I think you can buy that right now. And here's the thing, it's not just Wemi. San Antonio's stacked with guards. Guys like Stefan Castle, guys like Devin Vasel, also the former clutch player of the [music] year in Dearron Fox. These are all guards that can make it happen, get their own shot, and fill it up. In addition to Wikbyama. Now, we all know the Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorites to [music] win the NBA title. Over on Kali, they're at 53% right now, but [music] the Spurs and the Thunder played five games this season and the Spurs went 4 and one against the Thunder. So, they are not scarred if they see each other in the Western Conference Finals. You put this all together and I think the Spurs at almost 8x on your [music] money at Koshi and 12% is a value. The last thing I'll say, if [music] you go on over to some of those other sports books, you see San Antonio usually at around 7 to1. Over on Tshi, they are closer to 8:1. So that's another addition. That's another kind of lesson. You need to shop around. And if you like the Spurs, Talshi [music] is the place to get them. You put it all together. I believe in Victor Webeyama. A lot of people just say, "Oh, they're inexperienced. Oh, they're too [music] young." I don't think it matters when you have a generational freak like [music] Wemi. So go and get it now before the number moves. The oracle has [music] spoken. But remember, go on over to the7oracles.com. So many great content, so much great tools. [music] I'm talking podcast, videos, newsletter, articles. Do all of that. [music] And remember, use the promo code these at sign up and you can get six free months. Go and do it now. That'll take you through the NBA playoffs. That'll take you through the World Cup. that'll take you through the summer gas prices and the war and politics. We are doing things on entertainment like the next James Bond. We're doing uh cameos on Drake albums and so much more. Go over there to the sevenoracles.com and join [music] us as the prediction Illuminati.
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