Fed odds on Sep 4, 2026
What Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures priced for the Sep 15–16, 2026 FOMC decision at the close of the day (UTC). The favorite was a 25bp hike at 49.5% on Kalshi, 1.0 points from Polymarket. Live Sep 16 odds →
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket (international) | Fed funds futures (implied) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.2%±0.0 | — |
| 25bp cut | 0.0%±0.0 | 0.4%−0.2 | 0.0%±0.0 |
| Hold | 49.0%−6.0 | 49.5%−6.0 | 44.3%−6.8 |
| 25bp hike | 49.5%+6.0 | 48.5%+6.0 | 55.7%+6.9 |
| 50bp+ hike | 1.0%±0.0 | 0.8%+0.3 | — |
Each venue's close on this UTC day. “—” is no price, never 0% — the futures leg cannot express a 50bp move. Polymarket is the international book. Futures are a derived probability, never a contract price.
What printed that day
No scheduled Fed-moving release on Sep 4, 2026.
Data: Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures, captured every 30 minutes by PredictionMarketsPicks — free with attribution at the CSV. Not a forecast; trade responsibly.