How Kalshi settles fed dot plot
Rules last read
Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) released at the settlement-date FOMC meeting is strictly above the threshold.
4 resolution traps in the KXDOTPLOT rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
fed dot plotResolves YES if the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) released at the settlement-date FOMC meeting is strictly above the threshold.4 traps
- Strict 'above' — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule says 'above' the threshold, so a median projection exactly equal to the threshold is insufficient for YES resolution.
- Median, not mean or modal dot — The dot plot shows individual projections; resolution depends on the median of those dots, which can differ meaningfully from the most-cited or most-clustered value.
- Single SEP release — no revision mechanism — The Summary of Economic Projections is published once per qualifying FOMC meeting; there is no 'revised print,' so the dot released on the settlement date is final regardless of subsequent economic data.
- No SEP published ⇒ ALL twelve strikes resolve NO, not void — The contract's own 6/20/2026 clarification: if the Fed publishes no Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, or an SEP with no median year-end-2026 federal funds projection, every market in the ladder resolves to No. That is not a void or a refund — every YES holder at every strike loses simultaneously. It also means the ladder is NOT exhaustive: P(no SEP) sits as a uniform haircut across all twelve strikes, so the CDF differences do not sum to 1 and anything that renormalises them to 1 is silently asserting the Fed will publish.
KXDOTPLOT contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXDOTPLOT
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle fed dot plot markets?
Resolves YES if the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) released at the settlement-date FOMC meeting is strictly above the threshold. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a fed dot plot contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strict 'above' — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule says 'above' the threshold, so a median projection exactly equal to the threshold is insufficient for YES resolution.
What does the KXDOTPLOT ticker mean?
KXDOTPLOT is Kalshi's series ticker for fed dot plot. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading fed dot plot?
Not yet. We track KXDOTPLOT settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.