Question 1

What does News-Driven mean for a prediction market?

Accepted Answer

A News-Driven signal means the market price moved more than 2 percentage points AND a news article with ≥ 40/100 relevance score was found. The market is correctly incorporating new information.

Question 2

What is an Unexplained prediction market move?

Accepted Answer

An Unexplained signal means the price moved more than 3 percentage points but no matching news was found (relevance score < 20/100). This could indicate insider information, delayed news reporting, or platform-specific flow.

Question 3

What is an Unpriced prediction market signal?

Accepted Answer

An Unpriced signal means a news article has high relevance to a market (≥ 60/100) but the price has not moved (< 2pp change). The crowd has not yet priced in the information — a potential edge.

Signal Movers