WORLD CUP 2026

Top mispricings — 10K sim vs. Kalshi

14d to kickoff

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Live BTC edge vs. Kalshi hourly markets

PICK OF THE DAY

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SIGNAL FEEDLive · updated every 15 min

Signal Movers

Prediction market price moves classified in real time. Know why a market is moving before you trade.

News-Driven

Price moved AND matching news found. The market is correctly repricing.

Unpriced

Strong news signal — but market price hasn't moved yet. Potential edge.

Unexplained

Price moved significantly but no matching news found. Watch for delayed reporting.

Unpriced — Market Hasn't Caught Up

10
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UnpricedKALSHI5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 15¢KXCPIYOY-26SEP-T4.4
Resolves
Wed, Oct 14, 2026 · 8:29am ET
Kalshi YES at market close
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh faces an inflation credibility test after Congress hearings"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 5¢0x0c37533837ed4d3378494fcd9ea7043d03cc3af9443d68dfa0414984efcbaff9
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "'WarshGPT': How Wall Street is adapting to the Fed's new era of communication"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 5¢0xb5ea8663d94aa8be290f18faafc8edbd9ff3615d1497458c78d9561df4717dd6
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Why Dana White thinks much more of UFC's future will be Power Slap and boxing"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 22¢0x194fbdfdb828a52b840314e5c1da3029531407a089ba54dadb55761540546bfc
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Inside the Chinese fraud rings stealing billions from banks and retailers"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 35¢0x0fb843bf13b1b59c0349b5dbb0c10272d287db9aeac1f9ca8e966b4f6588e034
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Why Dana White thinks much more of UFC's future will be Power Slap and boxing"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 96¢0xd4b32edbe98700f47a290c08840d1d04a0f63beba7b1468a3f5b6c98155d5fb9
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "The AI rotation stole the spotlight from a strong start to earnings season"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 10¢0x5261c5c5868c1e83e464412ed5b4747c07a15110d1e26f33d5d29acb9e22df29
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "The White House is dictating access to frontier AI models, shifting power from tech giants, sources say"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100Price: -1.0pp
WATCHmarket @ 15¢0x6570e6df470fee8057fc141807e683bc649f74921d01dbefa518d0af8dd68b1b
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "How Our NFL Player Projections Actually Perform vs. the Market — and Why We Only Publish Four Stat Types"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedKALSHI5m ago
News: 100/100
WATCHmarket @ 6¢KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100
Resolves
Thu, Dec 31, 2026 · 4:00pm ET
Kalshi YES at market close
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "SpaceX share price drops below stock market debut"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.
UnpricedPOLYMARKET35m ago
News: 100/100Price: +1.0pp
WATCHmarket @ 62¢0x2a6affd160ac8d394da6a12d8ff1479e20e1f6efa22e46001d82ea99665f1045
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "The AI rotation stole the spotlight from a strong start to earnings season"

Signal News matched, price flat — investigate the direction yourself.

News-Driven

3
News-DrivenKALSHI5m ago
News: 100/100Price: -2.0pp
BUY YES@ 22¢KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.5
Resolves
Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 8:29am ET
Kalshi YES at market close
Thesis

News-driven move: "Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh faces an inflation credibility test after Congress hearings"

Exit Hold until settle.
News-DrivenPOLYMARKET5m ago
News: 100/100Price: -3.0pp
BUY YES@ 59¢0x2a6affd160ac8d394da6a12d8ff1479e20e1f6efa22e46001d82ea99665f1045
Resolves
Polymarket resolution
Thesis

News-driven move: "The AI rotation stole the spotlight from a strong start to earnings season"

Exit Hold until settle.
News-DrivenKALSHI5m ago
News: 50/100Price: -2.0pp
BUY YES@ 72¢KXFED-26OCT-T3.75
Resolves
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · 1:55pm ET
Kalshi YES at market close
Thesis

News-driven move: "'WarshGPT': How Wall Street is adapting to the Fed's new era of communication"

Exit Hold until settle.

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