Signal Movers
Prediction market price moves classified in real time. Know why a market is moving before you trade.
Price moved AND matching news found. The market is correctly repricing.
Strong news signal — but market price hasn't moved yet. Potential edge.
Price moved significantly but no matching news found. Watch for delayed reporting.
Unpriced — Market Hasn't Caught Up
5High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "US inflation rises more than expected - here's what is happening with prices"
High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Hot September CPI Puts the October Fed Hike Back on the Board: Kalshi Hike Odds Jump From 15% to 37%, Gold and Silver Sold, Oil Up"
High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "5 midterm money takeaways: Democrats have candidate cash. Republicans have Elon Musk"
High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Inside Ukrainian offensive pushing Russia back - with Starlink playing a key role"
High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Inside Ukrainian offensive pushing Russia back - with Starlink playing a key role"
News-Driven
2News-driven move: "AI rapidly improving, could vastly boost US GDP, Anthropic's Clark tells policymakers - Reuters"
News-driven move: "US inflation rises more than expected - here's what is happening with prices"
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Prediction market movers — frequently asked
What does News-Driven mean for a prediction market?
A News-Driven signal means the market price moved more than 2 percentage points AND a news article with ≥ 40/100 relevance score was found. The market is correctly incorporating new information.
What is an Unexplained prediction market move?
An Unexplained signal means the price moved more than 3 percentage points but no matching news was found (relevance score < 20/100). This could indicate insider information, delayed news reporting, or platform-specific flow.
What is an Unpriced prediction market signal?
An Unpriced signal means a news article has high relevance to a market (≥ 60/100) but the price has not moved (< 2pp change). The crowd has not yet priced in the information — a potential edge.
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