Market Hasn't Priced This Yet
Breaking news with a strong match to open prediction markets — but the price hasn't moved. Worth a look before the crowd catches on. These are watch signals — confirm which way the news cuts before you take a side.
How this works: Our signal engine scans Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, NPR, and Politico every 30 minutes. It scores each article against open Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. When news relevance is high (≥ 60/100) but the market price hasn't moved more than 2pp, that's an unpriced signal.
High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Euro zone business growth hits over 3-1/2-year high despite inflation worries, PMI shows - Reuters"
High-relevance news matched this market but the price hasn't moved — worth a look in either direction. Read the article and the market's resolution rule before taking a side: "Seasonality Is Just a Base Rate — The Highest-Yield, Least Glamorous Edge on the Board"
Unpriced market signals — frequently asked
What is an unpriced prediction market signal?
An unpriced signal means breaking news has a high relevance score (≥ 60/100) to an open prediction market contract, but the market price has not moved more than 2 percentage points. It suggests the crowd has not yet incorporated the news into the price — a market worth investigating. It is a watch signal, not a directional call: the engine matches the news to the market but does not decide which side it favors, so confirm the direction yourself before taking a position. Markets already pinned at an extreme (near 0¢ or 100¢) are excluded — those are decided, not unpriced.
How does PredictionMarketsPicks detect unpriced markets?
Our Oracle v2 engine scans Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, NPR, and Politico every 30 minutes, then tags each article with named entities (politicians, economic indicators, sports teams). Every 15 minutes, it compares those entity tags against open Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. When relevance score ≥ 60 and price change < 2pp, it writes an unpriced signal to our database.
How often are unpriced signals updated?
Signals are recomputed every 15 minutes. RSS feeds are fetched every 30 minutes. The page itself refreshes every 5 minutes via ISR.
Which prediction markets does this cover?
Unpriced signals cover Kalshi (politics, economics, Fed rate, GDP, inflation series) and Polymarket (top 50 markets by volume). Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US platform; Polymarket is a global decentralized platform.
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