Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Play of the Day
The 7 Oracles’ prediction market play for Tuesday, July 14, 2026 — permanent record.
Spain to Win in Regulation — France vs. Spain (World Cup Semifinal)
POSITION
YES
ENTRY PRICE
30¢
CLOSES
Jul 14, 2026
The market flipped France favorite after two routine QF wins, but the sim never moved: Spain 37% to win in 90, France 33%. Kalshi is selling that Spain contract at 30c. We're taking the model's side of the gap.
Our 10K-run simulation prices Spain at 37% to win in regulation (France 33%, draw 30%) off a 1.41-to-1.32 xG edge — but the Kalshi 90-minute market trades Spain at 30c and France at 43c. That's a 7-point spread in our favor on Spain and a 10-point overprice on France, almost all of it recency from France's cleaner quarterfinal. Regulation only: extra time or penalties settles this NO, which is exactly the variance the price already pays us to carry. Quarter-Kelly sizing.
Graded July 14, 2026 · P/L math per our published track-record method.